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Education among young adults Choose a young adult (aged 25 to 29) at random. The probability is 0.13 that the person chosen did not complete high school, 0.29 that the person has a high school diploma but no further education, and 0.30 that the person has at least a bachelor’s degree. (a) What must be the probability that a randomly chosen young adult has some education beyond high school but does not have a bachelor’s degree? Why? (b) What is the probability that a randomly chosen young adult has at least a high school education? Which rule of probability did you use to find the answer?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 0.28. (b) 0.87 using the addition rule.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding given probabilities

We are given probabilities for three different educational attainment levels among young adults: 1. Not completing high school: 0.13 2. High school diploma, no further education: 0.29 3. At least a bachelor's degree: 0.30. We know that the sum of all probable outcomes related to an event must equal 1.
02

Calculating probability for education beyond high school but less than a bachelor's degree

To find the probability of having some education beyond high school but not having a bachelor's degree, we need to account for all data. The total probability must add up to 1. Given that the three known conditions are having no high school (\( P = 0.13 \)), having only high school (\( P = 0.29 \)), and having at least a bachelor's degree (\( P = 0.30 \)), the probability space left for this category is \[ P = 1 - (0.13 + 0.29 + 0.30) = 0.28 \]. Thus, the probability of having some post-high school education without reaching a bachelor's degree is 0.28.
03

Calculating probability of at least high school education

To determine the probability of having at least a high school education, sum up the probabilities of having a high school diploma (\( P = 0.29 \)), some education beyond high school but less than a bachelor's degree (\( P = 0.28 \)), and at least a bachelor's degree (\( P = 0.30 \)). This is calculated using the addition rule: \[ P = 0.29 + 0.28 + 0.30 = 0.87 \]. This rule is appropriate because the outcomes are mutually exclusive.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Educational Attainment
Educational attainment refers to the highest level of education that an individual has completed. It is a crucial indicator in studies that aim to understand the distribution of educational levels across a population. In the context of probability, educational attainment categorizes outcomes such as completing high school, obtaining a bachelor's degree, or not completing high school. These distinct categories help in forming probabilities that can be analyzed for various societal implications. Understanding these different educational categories allows researchers to draw meaningful correlations and understand patterns that may exist in the education sector. For instance, one might investigate how educational attainment affects employment rates or income levels.
In the provided exercise, the categories are clearly defined: not completing high school, completing high school but not pursuing further education, having at least a bachelor's degree, and having some college education but less than a bachelor's degree. This categorization not only helps in accurate probability calculation but also provides a clearer understanding of the distribution of education among young adults.
Mutually Exclusive Events
Mutually exclusive events are events that cannot occur simultaneously. In probability terms, if one event occurs, the other cannot. This concept forms the foundation of many probability calculations, allowing us to use rules like the addition rule accurately. It is critical to identify mutually exclusive events because it simplifies the process of calculating the probability of either event occurring.
For instance, in the given exercise, the probability that a young adult has not completed high school (0.13), has only completed high school (0.29), or has a bachelor's degree (0.30) are mutually exclusive events. These categories are distinct, meaning a person can belong to only one category at a time. Because these events do not overlap, the probability that a person belongs to one of these educational categories can be added directly to find the total probability. This is possible due to the nature of mutually exclusive events, which ensures there is no overlap in outcomes, thereby making the addition of probabilities straightforward.
Addition Rule in Probability
The addition rule in probability is a fundamental principle used to calculate the probability of the occurrence of one or more mutually exclusive events. The principle can be summarized as: to find the probability of the occurrence of either event A or event B, you simply add the probabilities of each event occurring. This rule is directly applicable when events are mutually exclusive, meaning they cannot happen at the same time.
In the exercise, when asked to calculate the probability of having at least a high school education, the addition rule helps combine probabilities from mutually exclusive categories. The sum of probabilities for holding only a high school diploma (0.29), some education beyond high school but without a bachelor's degree (0.28), and having at least a bachelor's degree (0.30) adds up to 0.87.
  • This rule ensures that each probability is accounted for once, without any overlap.
  • It's essential in determining combined probabilities within distinct categories, like education levels.
Using the addition rule simplifies complex probability questions by allowing us to focus on individual outcomes, then sum their probabilities for a complete picture of all possible educational outcomes.

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