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Lost Internet sites Internet sites often vanish or move, so that references to them can’t be followed. In fact, 13% of Internet sites referenced in major scientific journals are lost within two years after publication.19 If a paper contains seven Internet references, what is the probability that at least one of them doesn’t work two years later? Follow the four-step process.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that at least one reference doesn't work is approximately 63.79%.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We need to determine the probability that at least one of the seven Internet references in a journal paper does not work after two years. The given probability of a single reference not working is 13%.
02

Define the Random Variables

Let "X" be the number of references that do not work after two years. X is a binomial random variable with n = 7 (references) and p = 0.13 (probability of a reference not working).
03

Calculate Probability of at Least One Failure

The probability of at least one reference not working is the same as 1 minus the probability that zero references do not work. Use the complement rule: \( P(X \geq 1) = 1 - P(X = 0) \)
04

Calculate Probability of Zero Failures

Calculate \( P(X = 0) \), the probability that none of the references fail, using the binomial probability formula: \( P(X = 0) = \binom{7}{0} \times (0.13)^0 \times (0.87)^7 \)Simplifying, we get: \( P(X = 0) = 1 \times 1 \times 0.87^7 \approx 0.3621 \)
05

Determine the Final Probability

Subtract the probability of zero failures from 1 to find the probability of at least one failure: \( P(X \geq 1) = 1 - 0.3621 \).So, the probability is approximately equal to 0.6379.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Random Variables
Random variables are key components in probability and statistics. They are used to describe outcomes of experiments where outcomes are not deterministic. In simpler terms, a random variable assigns a numerical value to each outcome in a certain experiment, often denoted by a capital letter like \(X\).

There are two types of random variables:
  • Discrete random variables: These can take on a countable number of distinct outcomes. An example is the result of a dice roll, which can only be a whole number between 1 and 6.
  • Continuous random variables: These can take any real number value within a given range. An example is measuring the height of students in a class, as height can be any value within possible human height limits.
In the given exercise, "X" represents a discrete random variable, denoting the number of Internet references that do not work two years after publication. Since we have 7 references, "X" can take values from 0 to 7. We deal with a binomial random variable because we have a fixed number of trials (7 references), and each reference fails independently with the same probability (13%).
Complement Rule
The complement rule is a fundamental principle in probability theory that simplifies finding certain probabilities. It states that the probability of an event happening is 1 minus the probability of it not happening. Mathematically, if \(A\) is an event, then the complement of \(A\) is denoted as \(A^c\) or \(\overline{A}\), and we write:\[ P(A) = 1 - P(A^c) \]In practice, this rule is frequently employed because often it is easier to calculate the probability of an event not happening instead of happening and then subtract from 1.

In the exercise, we want to find the probability that at least one Internet reference is lost. Rather than calculating each possible number of failures (1 through 7), we find it easier to compute the probability that no references are lost, and then subtract from 1. This method makes complex problems more manageable by leveraging the simplicity of complementary events.
Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution that describes the number of successes in a fixed number of independent experiments. Each experiment (also called a trial) can result in one of two outcomes: success or failure. This distribution is appropriate when you are interested in the probability of a specific number of successes over a series of trials.For a random variable \(X\) following a binomial distribution with parameters \(n\) (the number of trials) and \(p\) (the probability of success in each trial), the probability of getting exactly \(k\) successes is given by the formula:\[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \]where \(\binom{n}{k}\) is the binomial coefficient, representing the number of ways to choose \(k\) successes in \(n\) trials.

In solving the exercise, we compute the probability that exactly 0 references fail out of 7, where the probability of a failure for each reference is 13%. We apply the binomial formula to find \(P(X = 0)\). Understanding how to calculate such probabilities is critical in applications that involve binary outcomes, such as quality control and survey sampling.

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