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Running a Mile. A study of 12,000 able-bodied male students at the University of Illinois found that their times for the mile run were approximately Normal with mean \(7.11\) minutes and standard deviation \(0.74\) minute. 12 Choose a student at random from this group and call his time for the mile \(Y\). a. Is \(Y\) a finite or continuous random variable? Explain your answer. b. Say in words what the meaning of \(P(Y \geq 8)\) is. What is this probability? c. Write the event "the student could run a mile in less than six minutes" in terms of values of the random variable \(Y\). What is the probability of this event?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. Continuous; b. Probability is approximately 0.1151; c. \( P(Y < 6) \approx 0.0655 \).

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Type of Random Variable

Variable \( Y \) represents the time taken for a student to run a mile. Since time can take any real value within a range and is measured with a certain degree of precision, \( Y \) is considered a continuous random variable.
02

Interpret the Probability Expression

The expression \( P(Y \geq 8) \) denotes the probability that a randomly selected student's mile run time is 8 minutes or longer. In this context, it represents the likelihood of this student taking 8 or more minutes to complete the mile.
03

Calculate probability for \(P(Y\geq 8)\)

Since \( Y \) follows a normal distribution with mean \( \mu = 7.11 \) and standard deviation \( \sigma = 0.74 \), convert the mile time to a standard normal variable \( Z \) using the formula \( Z = \frac{Y-\mu}{\sigma} \). For \( Y = 8 \), \( Z = \frac{8-7.11}{0.74} \approx 1.20 \). From a standard normal distribution table, \( P(Z \geq 1.20) \approx 1 - P(Z \leq 1.20) \approx 0.1151 \).
04

Express Running Time Event in Terms of Y

The event where a student can run a mile in less than six minutes is represented by \( Y < 6 \). This describes students completing the mile in under six minutes.
05

Calculate Probability for \(Y < 6\)

Using the same conversion, \( Z = \frac{Y-\mu}{\sigma} \). For \( Y = 6 \), \( Z = \frac{6-7.11}{0.74} \approx -1.51 \). From a standard normal distribution table, \( P(Z < -1.51) \approx 0.0655 \). Thus, the probability of running the mile in less than six minutes is approximately \( 0.0655 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Continuous Random Variable
In probability and statistics, a random variable is a variable whose possible values are numerical outcomes of a random phenomenon. A continuous random variable, like time, can take any value within a range. This means it is not limited to separate distinct values. Instead, it spans an interval on the real number line, including fractions and decimals. For example, the time it takes a student to run a mile, denoted as \( Y \), is a continuous random variable. This is because time can be measured in ever-smaller units of precision (seconds, milliseconds, etc.). Therefore, \( Y \) can include results like 7.112 or 6.897 minutes, reflecting the continuous nature of time.
Probability Interpretation
When interpreting probabilities, we try to assess the chance or likelihood of certain outcomes. In the context of the mile run times studied at the University of Illinois, the expression \( P(Y \geq 8) \) reflects the probability that a randomly chosen student takes at least 8 minutes to complete a mile. This helps us understand what fraction of the students take longer than this threshold time. Similarly, phrases like "less than six minutes," represent the event \( Y < 6 \), providing a way to describe outcomes quantitatively. Using these probability expressions helps in making sense of the numerical results in a real-world context.
Standard Normal Distribution
The standard normal distribution is a special probability distribution that is symmetrically centered around the mean of zero with a standard deviation of one. It is a specific form of a normal distribution, which is often used to simplify the computation of probabilities. In our scenario with the mile run times, the original normal distribution of times was standardized to simplify calculations. This involves converting the original miles times \( Y \) into standard normal variables \( Z \), using the formula \( Z = \frac{Y - \mu}{\sigma} \). This transformation allows us to utilize standard normal distribution tables to find probabilities associated with different run times.
Z-Score Calculation
Z-scores play a central role in statistics, serving as a measure of how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. It's a standard way to position an observation within a distribution. To compute a Z-score, we use the formula \( Z = \frac{Y - \mu}{\sigma} \), where \( Y \) is the observed value, \( \mu \) is the mean, and \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation. A Z-score allows for comparison across different distributions and converting data into the standard normal distribution. For instance, when calculating the probability of a student running at least 8 minutes, we calculated the Z-score of 1.20, aligning it with standard normal distribution metrics for effective probability finding.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Probability Says ... Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur. Match one of the probabilities that follow with each statement of likelihood given. (The probability is usually a more exact measure of likelihood than is the verbal statement.) \(\begin{array}{lllllll}0 & 0.05 & 0.45 & 0.50 & 0.55 & 0.95 \quad 1\end{array}\) a. This event is impossible. It can never occur. b. This event is just as likely to occur as it is to not occur. c. This event is very likely, but it will not occur once in a while in a long sequence of trials. d. This event will occur slightly less often than not.

Overweight? Although the rules of probability are just basic facts about percentages or proportions, we need to be able to use the language of events and their probabilities. Choose an American adult aged 20 years or over at random. Define two events: \(A=\) the person chosen is obese \(B=\) the person chosen is overweight but not obese According to the National Center for Health Statistics, \(P(A)=0.40\) and \(P(B)=0.32\). a. Explain why events \(A\) and \(B\) are disjoint. b. Say in plain language what the event " \(A\) or \(B\) " is. What is \(P(A\) or \(B)\) ? c. If \(C\) is the event that the person chosen has normal weight or less, what is \(P(C)\) ?

A Flush. You read online that the probability of being dealt a flush (all five cards of the same suit) in a five-card poker hand is \(1 / 508\). Explain carefully what this means. In particular, explain why it does not mean that if you are dealt 508 five-card poker hands, one will be a flush.

What Type of Probability? (optional topic) The NASA website on global climate change says that "The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is extremely likely (greater than \(95 \%\) probability) to be the result of human activity since the mid-20th century."20 This probability is based on satellite data collecting many different types of information, historical data, scientific theory, and sophisticated computer models implementing the latest theory. What type of probability is this? Is it a probability based on the proportion of times an outcome would occur in a very long series of repetitions or a personal probability?

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