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Overweight? Although the rules of probability are just basic facts about percentages or proportions, we need to be able to use the language of events and their probabilities. Choose an American adult aged 20 years or over at random. Define two events: \(A=\) the person chosen is obese \(B=\) the person chosen is overweight but not obese According to the National Center for Health Statistics, \(P(A)=0.40\) and \(P(B)=0.32\). a. Explain why events \(A\) and \(B\) are disjoint. b. Say in plain language what the event " \(A\) or \(B\) " is. What is \(P(A\) or \(B)\) ? c. If \(C\) is the event that the person chosen has normal weight or less, what is \(P(C)\) ?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. A and B are disjoint because they cannot occur simultaneously. b. A or B means the person is overweight; P(A or B) = 0.72. c. P(C) = 0.28.

Step by step solution

01

Determine if A and B are Disjoint

In probability, two events are said to be disjoint (or mutually exclusive) if they cannot both occur at the same time. Since event \(A\) is that a person is obese, and event \(B\) is that a person is overweight but not obese, these two events cannot happen simultaneously. A person cannot be obese and just overweight without being obese at the same time. Therefore, events \(A\) and \(B\) are disjoint.
02

Understand What A or B Represents

The event \(A \text{ or } B\) means that the person is either obese (event \(A\)) or overweight but not obese (event \(B\)). So, in plain language, it represents all people who are considered overweight, regardless of whether they are obese or just overweight.
03

Calculate P(A or B)

Since events \(A\) and \(B\) are disjoint, the probability of either event occurring is the sum of their individual probabilities. Therefore, \(P(A \text{ or } B) = P(A) + P(B) = 0.40 + 0.32 = 0.72\).
04

Define Event C

Event \(C\) is the same as not being overweight or obese, i.e., the individual has normal weight or is underweight. This is described as having normal weight or less.
05

Calculate P(C) using Complement Rule

Since \(C\) is the complement of events \(A \text{ or } B\), the probability of \(C\) can be calculated using the complement rule: \(P(C) = 1 - P(A \text{ or } B) = 1 - 0.72 = 0.28\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Disjoint Events
Disjoint events, also known as mutually exclusive events, are two events that cannot happen at the same time. In probability, identifying disjoint events can simplify calculations and help us understand real-world situations better. For two events to be disjoint, the occurrence of one event means the other cannot happen. This can be likened to a simple scenario of flipping a coin – the result can be either heads or tails, but not both simultaneously.

In this exercise, the probability events are defined in terms of obesity:
  • Event \( A \) is when the chosen person is obese.
  • Event \( B \) is when the person is overweight but not obese.
These conditions show that if a person belongs to event \( A \), they cannot belong to event \( B \), and vice versa. Thus, events \( A \) and \( B \) are disjoint, allowing us to use specific rules in probability, such as the Addition Rule for disjoint events.
Complement Rule
The complement rule in probability is an efficient way of finding the probability of an event not occurring. When the total probability of all possible outcomes in a sample space is 1, we can calculate the probability of the complement of an event, which is simply everything that is not the event itself.

Mathematically, if we are considering an event \( A \), its complement, often denoted as \( A^c \), is defined as \[ P(A^c) = 1 - P(A) \] This rule helps us determine the likelihood of scenarios where certain conditions are not met.

In our exercise, event \( C \) is described as having a normal weight or less, meaning not being overweight or obese. Since \( C \) is the complement of "being overweight or obese," we apply the complement rule to find \( P(C) \, \), which is calculated from the probability of being either obese or just overweight: \( P(C) = 1 - P(A \text{ or } B) = 1 - 0.72 = 0.28 \).
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation is a fundamental concept used to predict how likely an event is to occur. The basis of calculating probabilities involves understanding the relationships between different events and applying appropriate formulas accordingly.

When dealing with disjoint events like \( A \) and \( B \) from the exercise, the calculation of the probability of either event occurring ("\( A \text{ or } B \)") is straightforward: we simply add the probabilities of each event occuring, because they cannot happen at the same time. \[ P(A \text{ or } B) = P(A) + P(B) \] For instance, \( P(A \text{ or } B) = 0.40 + 0.32 = 0.72 \).This approach simplifies calculations by considering that each event is independent of the other in terms of occurrence.
Event Definition
In probability, an event is defined as a set of outcomes of an experiment (a subset of the sample space) to which a probability is assigned. Defining events clearly is crucial in solving probability problems, as it establishes the framework for analysis.

In this exercise, events are specifically defined within a broader context of health classification:
  • \( A \): The person is obese.
  • \( B \): The person is overweight but not obese.
  • \( C \): The person has normal weight or less.
By defining these events, we can apply relevant probability rules and methods systematically. Understanding this well-structured approach helps students navigate more complex problems, ensuring clarity and correctness in evaluations.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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