Survey Accuracy. A sample survey contacted an SRS of 2220 registered voters
shortly before the 2016 presidential election and asked respondents whom they
planned to vote for. Election results show that \(46 \%\) of registered voters
voted for Donald Trump. The proportion of the sample who voted for Trump
varies, depending on which 2220 voters are in the sample. We will see later
that in this situation, if we consider all possible samples of 2220 voters,
the proportion of voters in each sample who planned to vote for Trump (call it
\(V\) ) has approximately the Normal distribution with mean \(\mu=0.46\) and
standard deviation \(\sigma=0.011\).
a. If the respondents answer truthfully, what is \(P(0.44 \leq V \leq 0.48)\) ?
This is the probability that the sample proportion \(V\) estimates the
population proportion \(0.46\) within plus or minus \(0.02\).
b. In fact, \(43 \%\) of the respondents in the actual sample said they planned
to vote for Donald Trump. If respondents answer truthfully, what is \(P(V \geq
0.43)\) ?