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91Ó°ÊÓ

Statisticians prefer large samples. Describe briefly the effect of increasing the size of a sample (or the number of subjects in an experiment) on each of the following: (a) The \(P\)-value of a test, when \(H_{0}\) is false and all facts about the population remain unchanged as \(n\) increases. (b) (Optional) The power of a fixed level \(\alpha\) test, when \(\alpha\), the alternative hypothesis, and all facts about the population remain unchanged.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Increasing sample size decreases the p-value when \(H_0\) is false and increases the power of the test.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Context

When we discuss sample size in statistical hypothesis testing, we're interested in how increasing the number of observations affects outcomes such as the p-value and the power of the test. Larger samples tend to give more reliable statistical results.
02

Effect on the P-value when the Null Hypothesis is False

As the sample size, denoted as \(n\), increases while the null hypothesis \(H_0\) is false, the p-value typically decreases. This is because larger samples provide more information and tend to show a clearer pattern of the underlying true effect; thus, the evidence against \(H_0\) becomes stronger.
03

Effect on the Power of the Test with a Fixed Alpha Level

The power of a statistical test is defined as the probability of correctly rejecting the null hypothesis when it is false. As the sample size \(n\) increases, the power of the test also increases. This is because a larger sample size reduces the standard error, making it easier to detect a true effect or difference.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

P-value
The P-value in hypothesis testing is a probability that measures the strength of the evidence against the null hypothesis, denoted as \( H_0 \). When the P-value is low, it indicates that the observed data are unlikely under the null hypothesis, suggesting that the null hypothesis might not be true. This helps us decide whether to reject or accept the null hypothesis.
In the context of sample size, when \( H_0 \) is false and all other factors remain unchanged, increasing the sample size tends to decrease the P-value. A larger sample provides more information and is better at showing a true effect or difference, if one exists. Thus, it strengthens the evidence against the null hypothesis, often resulting in smaller P-values.
Key takeaways:
  • Larger sample sizes generally lead to smaller P-values when the null hypothesis is false.
  • A smaller P-value increases the evidence against the null hypothesis.
Power of a Test
The power of a test is the probability that the test will correctly reject a false null hypothesis. It measures a test's ability to detect an effect or a difference when one truly exists. Increasing the power of a test means being more confident in detecting a true effect when the null hypothesis is indeed false.
A key factor affecting the power of a test is the sample size. When all other factors, including the significance level \( \alpha \), alternative hypothesis, and population characteristics, are kept constant, an increase in sample size generally leads to an increase in the power of the test. This is because larger samples reduce the variability (standard error) of the test, making it easier to observe differences or effects.
Remember:
  • Higher test power improves our confidence in rejecting a false null hypothesis.
  • Larger sample sizes increase the power, thus improving the test's reliability and validity.
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis testing is a structured method in statistics to make decisions about the properties of a population based on random samples. It involves two primary hypotheses: the null hypothesis \( H_0 \), which represents no effect or difference, and the alternative hypothesis \( H_a \), which indicates the presence of an effect or difference.
The process of hypothesis testing consists of several steps:
  • Formulate both \( H_0 \) and \( H_a \).
  • Choose a significance level \( \alpha \), which is the probability of rejecting a true null hypothesis.
  • Collect and analyze sample data.
  • Calculate the test statistic and P-value.
  • Make a decision to reject or fail to reject \( H_0 \) based on the P-value and \( \alpha \).

The goal of hypothesis testing is to evaluate data to make informed conclusions about the underlying population. Accurately formulating hypotheses and understanding the testing process are crucial steps in drawing meaningful statistical inferences.
Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis, denoted as \( H_0 \), serves as a baseline assumption in hypothesis testing. It often posits that there is no true effect or difference and that any observed deviations are due to sampling or random error.
In hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis is assumed to be true until evidence suggests otherwise. The aim is to determine if the available data provide sufficient grounds to reject \( H_0 \). If the P-value is lower than the chosen significance level \( \alpha \), we reject \( H_0 \), indicating that the observed data are inconsistent with the null hypothesis.
It's important to remember:
  • \( H_0 \) is often a statement of no effect or status quo.
  • Rejecting \( H_0 \) suggests that there is statistically significant evidence of an effect or difference.
  • The outcome of hypothesis testing is contingent on sample data and the established (pre-set) significance level \( \alpha \).
Understanding the null hypothesis is fundamental to correctly applying statistical tests and interpreting their results.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Your company markets a computerized medical diagnostic program used to evaluate thousands of people. The program scans the results of routine medical tests (pulse rate, blood tests, etc.) and refers the case to a doctor if there is evidence of a medical problem. The program makes a decision about each person. (a) What are the two hypotheses and the two types of error that the program can make? Describe the two types of error in terms of "false-positive" and "false-negative" test results. (b) The program can be adjusted to decrease one error probability, at the cost of an increase in the other error probability. Which error probability would you choose to make smaller, and why? (This is a matter of judgment. There is no single correct answer.)

Software can generate samples from (almost) exactly Normal distributions. Here is a random sample of size 5 from the Normal distribution with mean 12 and standard deviation 2.5: $$ \begin{array}{lllll} 14.94 & 9.04 & 9.58 & 12.96 & 11.29 \end{array} $$ These data match the conditions for a \(z\) test better than real data will: the population is very close to Normal and has known standard deviation \(\sigma=2.5\), and the population mean is \(\mu=12\). Although we know the true value of \(\mu\), suppose we pretend that we do not and we test the hypotheses $$ \begin{aligned} &H_{0}: \mu=10 \\ &H_{a}: \mu \neq 10 \end{aligned} $$ (a) What are the \(z\) statistic and its \(P\)-value? Is the test significant at the \(5 \%\) level? (b) We know that the null hypothesis does not hold, but the test failed to give strong evidence against \(H_{0}\). Explain why this is not surprising.

Here are data on the percent change in the total mass (in tons) of wildlife in several West African game preserves in the years 1971 to \(1999:^{9}\) $$ \begin{array}{rrrrrrrrrr} \hline 1971 & 1972 & 1973 & 1974 & 1975 & 1976 & 1977 & 1978 & 1979 & 1980 \\ 2.9 & 3.1 & -1.2 & -1.1 & -3.3 & 3.7 & 1.9 & -0.3 & -5.9 & -7.9 \\ \hline 1981 & 1982 & 1983 & 1984 & 1985 & 1986 & 1987 & 1988 & 1989 & 1990 \\ -5.5 & -7.2 & -4.1 & -8.6 & -5.5 & -0.7 & -5.1 & -7.1 & -4.2 & 0.9 \\ \hline 1991 & 1992 & 1993 & 1994 & 1995 & 1996 & 1997 & 1998 & 1999 & \\ -6.1 & -4.1 & -4.8 & -11.3 & -9.3 & -10.7 & -1.8 & -7.4 & -22.9 & \\ \hline \end{array} $$ Software gives the \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean annual percent change as \(-6.66 \%\) to \(-2.55 \%\). There are several reasons we might not trust this interval. (a) Examine the distribution of the data. What feature of the distribution throws doubt on the validity of statistical inference? (b) Plot the percents against year. What trend do you see in this time series? Explain why a trend over time casts doubt on the condition that years 1971 to 1999 can be treated as an SRS from a larger population of years.

The coach of a Canadian university's men's hockey team records the resting heart rates of the 26 team members. You should not trust a confidence interval for the mean resting heart rate of all male students at this Canadian university based on these data because (a) with only 26 observations, the margin of error will be large. (b) heart rates may not have a Normal distribution. (c) the members of the hockey team can't be considered a random sample of all students.

A 2015 Gallup Poll asked a national random sample of 398 adult women to state their current weight. The mean weight in the sample was \(\mathrm{x}^{-} \bar{x}=155\). We will treat these data as an SRS from a Normally distributed population with standard deviation \(\sigma=35\). (a) Give a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean weight of adult women based on these data. (b) Do you trust the interval you computed in part (a) as a 95\% confidence interval for the mean weight of all U.S. adult women? Why or why not?

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