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Parameters and hypotheses For each of the following situations, define the parameter (proportion or mean) and write the null and alternative hypotheses in terms of parameter values. Example: We want to know if the proportion of up days in the stock market is \(50 \% .\) Answer: Let \(p=\) the proportion of up days. \(\mathrm{H}_{0}: p=0.5 \mathrm{vs} . \mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{A}}: p \neq 0.5\) a. A casino wants to know if their slot machine really delivers the 1 in 100 win rate that it claims. b. Last year, customers spent an average of \(\$ 35.32\) per visit to the company's website. Based on a random sample of purchases this year, the company wants to know if the mean this year has changed. c. A pharmaceutical company wonders if their new drug has a cure rate different from the \(30 \%\) reported by the placebo. d. A bank wants to know if the percentage of customers using their website has changed from the \(40 \%\) that used it before their system crashed last week.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. \(p \ \mathrm{with} \ H_{0}: p=0.01 \ \mathrm{and} \ H_{A}: p \neq 0.01 \) \n b. \(\mu \ \mathrm{with} \ H_{0}: \mu = \$35.32 \ \mathrm{and} \ H_{A}: \mu \neq \$35.32 \) \n c. \(p \ \mathrm{with} \ H_{0}: p=0.3 \ \mathrm{and} \ H_{A}: p \neq 0.3 \) \n d. \(p \ \mathrm{with} \ H_{0}: p=0.4 \ \mathrm{and} \ H_{A}: p \neq 0.4 \)

Step by step solution

01

Slot machine at a casino

a. The parameter here is the win rate proportion (p) of the slot machine. The null hypothesis, H0, is that the win rate is 1 in 100 or \( p=0.01 \). The alternative hypothesis, H_A, is that the win rate proportion differs from 1 in 100 or \( p \neq 0.01 \).
02

Average spending per visit

b. The parameter here is the mean spending amount (\( \mu \)) per website visit. The null hypothesis, H0, is that the mean spending per visit is \(\$35.32\), or \( \mu = \$35.32 \). The alternative hypothesis, H_A, is that the mean spending per visit differs from \(\$35.32\), or \( \mu \neq \$35.32 \).
03

Cure rate of a new drug

c. The parameter here is the cure rate proportion (p) of the new drug. The null hypothesis, H0, is that the cure rate is \(30\%\) or \( p=0.3 \). The alternative hypothesis, H_A, is that the cure rate differs from \(30\%\) or \( p \neq 0.3 \).
04

Website usage rate at a bank

d. The parameter here is the usage rate proportion (p) of their website, which is the percentage of customers who use it. The null hypothesis, H0, is that the usage rate is \(40\%\) or \( p=0.4 \). The alternative hypothesis, H_A, is that the usage rate differs from \(40\%\), or \( p \neq 0.4 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
Understanding the concept of the null hypothesis is crucial in hypothesis testing. It represents the default position that there is no effect or no difference. Think of it as the 'status quo,' the expectation if nothing unusual is happening. For instance, if a casino claims that their slot machine has a specific win rate, the null hypothesis would assert that the actual win rate is exactly as stated.

Formally, the null hypothesis (\(H_0\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag: H_{0}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag: p=0.01\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag: \) for the slot machine's win rate), is the statement being tested and is not accepted unless there is strong evidence against it. Statistical significance plays a key role in this decision-making process.
Alternative Hypothesis
In contrast to the null hypothesis, the alternative hypothesis (\(H_A\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag: H_{A}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag: p eq 0.5)\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag{1}\tag: \) for the market example) posits that there is an effect or a difference. Basically, this is what the researcher is trying to prove — that the real world doesn't adhere to the null hypothesis. For the casino example, the alternative hypothesis would be that the slot machine does not hit the advertised win rate, indicating either a malfunction or false advertising.

The alternative hypothesis is the one you hope to support with evidence, and it's what statisticians are often most interested in. If proven, it can lead to a deeper understanding of the situation or could be used to make predictions or inform decisions.
Parameter Definition
The term 'parameter' in statistics refers to a quantity that gives us some kind of insight into the population from which we're sampling. It's like a numerical characteristic of the whole group we're studying. In hypothesis testing, we usually make claims about these parameters — such as the mean (\( \bar{x} \tag{1}\tag{1}\tag: \bar{x} \tag{1}\tag: \) for average spending in the website case) or a proportion (\( p \tag: p \) for cure rate of a drug) — based on our sample data.

Clearly defining parameters is essential because the entire hypothesis test revolves around whether the sample data provide enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis concerning these population parameters.
Statistical Significance
The phrase 'statistical significance' carries a lot of weight in hypothesis testing. It's a measure of how strong the evidence must be before we can reject the null hypothesis. In other words, it tells us whether the difference or effect we see in our sample is likely real or if it could just be due to random chance in the sampling process.

A statistically significant result doesn't mean the effect is necessarily large or important — only that it's unlikely to be from random variation in the data. Statisticians use a p-value, with a commonly accepted threshold of 0.05, to decide on significance. If the p-value is below this threshold, we have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Women executives A company is criticized because only 13 of 43 people in executive-level positions are women. The company explains that although this proportion is lower than it might wish, it's not a surprising value given that only \(40 \%\) of all its employees are women. What do you think? Test an appropriate hypothesis and state your conclusion. Be sure the appropriate assumptions and conditions are satisfied before you proceed.

Expensive medicine Developing a new drug can be an expensive process, resulting in high costs to patients. A pharmaceutical company has developed a new drug to reduce cholesterol, and it will conduct a clinical trial to compare the effectiveness to the most widely used current treatment. The results will be analyzed using a hypothesis test. a. If the test yields a low P-value and the researcher rejects the null hypothesis that the new drug is not more effective, but it actually is not better, what are the consequences of such an error? b. If the test yields a high \(\mathrm{P}\) -value and the researcher fails to reject the null hypothesis, but the new drug is more effective, what are the consequences of such an error?

A survey investigating whether the proportion of today's high school seniors who own their own cars is higher than it was a decade ago finds a P-value of 0.017 . Is it reasonable to conclude that more high schoolers have cars? Explain.

Candy Someone hands you a box of a dozen chocolatecovered candies, telling you that half are vanilla creams and the other half peanut butter. You pick candies at random and discover the first three you eat are all vanilla. a. If there really were 6 vanilla and 6 peanut butter candies in the box, what is the probability that you would have picked three vanillas in a row? b. Do you think there really might have been 6 of each? Explain. c. Would you continue to believe that half are vanilla if the fourth one you try is also vanilla? Explain.

The researcher from Chapter 17 ?, Exercise 39 ? tests whether the mean cholesterol level among those who eat frozen pizza exceeds the value considered to indicate a health risk. She gets a P-value of 0.07. Explain in this context what the " \(7 \%\) " represents.

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