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In an effort to check the quality of their cell phones, a manufacturing manager decides to take a random sample of 10 cell phones from yesterday's production run, which produced cell phones with serial numbers ranging (according to when they were produced) from 43005000 to \(43005999 .\) If each of the 1000 phones is equally likely to be selected: a. What distribution would they use to model the selection? b. What is the probability that a randomly selected cell phone will be one of the last 100 to be produced? c. What is the probability that the first cell phone selected is either from the last 200 to be produced or from the first 50 to be produced?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. They would use a uniform distribution to model the selection. b. The probability that a randomly selected cell phone will be one of the last 100 to be produced is 0.1. c. The probability that the first cell phone selected is either from the last 200 to be produced or from the first 50 to be produced is 0.25.

Step by step solution

01

Distribution of the selection

Given that each phone has an equal likelihood of being selected, this is a situation that aligns with the properties of a uniform distribution. Therefore, the distribution that would model the selection is a uniform distribution.
02

Probability of selecting one of the last 100 to be produced

In a uniform distribution, the probability of an event can be calculated as the number of target outcomes divided by the total number of potential outcomes. Therefore, the probability \(P\) of randomly selecting a phone from the last 100 produced can be calculated as follows: \(P=\frac{100}{1000}=0.1\)
03

Probability of selecting from the last 200 or first 50 to be produced

Similarly, the probability \(P\) of the first phone selected being from the last 200 produced or the first 50 produced is calculated as the number of target outcomes divided by total outcomes. Therefore: \(P=\frac{200+50}{1000}=0.25\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Uniform Distribution
In understanding the concept of uniform distribution, it's essential to recognize it as a foundational model in probability and statistics. A uniform distribution describes a situation where all outcomes are equally likely to occur. This equal likelihood is central to the concept.
Imagine you have a deck of cards and you draw one card at random. If the deck is well shuffled, each card has an equally likely chance of being selected. This scenario is an example of a uniform distribution. In the context of our exercise, the manufacturing manager has a 'deck' of 1000 serial numbers ranging from 43005000 to 43005999, and selecting any one of those serial numbers is just as likely as selecting another. This perfect balance across all possible choices means using the uniform distribution is the best method to model the selection process.
When dealing with uniform distributions, the probability of an event is simply calculated by dividing the count of favorable outcomes by the total number of possible outcomes. This simplicity makes uniform distribution a helpful tool in making probability calculations straightforward in equally likely scenarios.
Random Sampling
Random sampling is a crucial method in statistics, as it allows for the selection of a subgroup from a population in such a way that every individual has an equal chance of being chosen. This method is widely used across various fields, from quality control, like our cell phone manufacturing example, to survey sampling in research studies.
In the exercise, the manager selects 10 phones randomly from the day's production. This action follows the principles of random sampling, guaranteeing that the sample is representative of the entire production run, thereby providing unbiased estimates or checks of the production quality. Random sampling reduces selection bias and enhances the reliability of the results. If serial numbers were picked due to their position in the sequence (like only choosing those that end in a certain digit), the 'randomness' and hence the reliability of the sample might be compromised.
Basic Probability
At its core, the concept of basic probability helps us quantify the likelihood of the occurrence of a particular event. Probability ranges from 0 to 1, where 0 indicates impossibility, and 1 indicates certainty.
In the cell phone manufacturer's case, the probability calculations provide valuable insights. For instance, the probability that any randomly selected phone will have one of the last 100 serial numbers is 0.1, or 10%, signifying a fairly small chance, but not a rare event. Meanwhile, when expanding the favorable outcomes to include phones from the first 50 or last 200 produced, the probability increases to 0.25, or 25%, which is more substantial. These simple calculations stem from the basic principle of probability which states that the likelihood of an event equals the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes.

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