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Find the indicated confidence interval. Assume the standard error comes from a bootstrap distribution that is approximately normally distributed. A \(95 \%\) confidence interval for a difference in proportions \(p_{1}-p_{2}\) if the samples have \(n_{1}=50\) with \(\hat{p}_{1}=0.68\) and \(n_{2}=80\) with \(\hat{p}_{2}=0.61,\) and the standard error is \(S E=0.085\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 95% confidence interval for the difference in proportions is \([-0.0966, 0.2366]\).

Step by step solution

01

Identify the given data

In this case, the given data include the sample sizes \(n_1 = 50\) and \(n_2 = 80\), the sample proportions \(\hat{p}_{1} = 0.68\) and \(\hat{p}_{2} = 0.61\), and the standard error \(SE = 0.085\).
02

Calculate the difference of proportions

In order to find the confidence interval, first, the difference of proportions \(d = \hat{p}_{1} - \hat{p}_{2}\) has to be calculated. Substituting \(\hat{p}_{1} = 0.68\) and \(\hat{p}_{2} = 0.61\) into the difference formula gives \(d = 0.68 - 0.61 = 0.07\).
03

Use the Confidence Interval Formula

A confidence interval for a parameter is expressed as \(estimate \pm margin \:of \:error\). Here, the estimate is the calculated difference \(d\), and the margin of error is \(Z_{\alpha/2} \times SE\). Since this is a 95% confidence interval, \(Z_{\alpha/2}\) is 1.96 (a commonly known value). Thus, the margin of error becomes \(1.96 \times 0.085 = 0.1666\).
04

Calculate the Confidence Interval

The confidence interval is therefore \(d \pm margin\: of\:error\), or \(0.07 \pm 0.1666\). This means the interval is from \(0.07 - 0.1666 = -0.0966\) to \(0.07 + 0.1666 = 0.2366\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Difference in Proportions
In statistics, the concept of "difference in proportions" helps us compare two groups. These groups could be anything from different populations to distinct sample sets. The difference in proportions is calculated by finding the difference between the sample proportions of two groups. For example, if we have two sample proportions, \( \hat{p}_1 = 0.68 \) and \( \hat{p}_2 = 0.61 \), the difference is \( 0.68 - 0.61 = 0.07 \). This value (0.07) indicates the extent to which one sample proportion surpasses the other.
Understanding the difference in proportions can answer questions like: Is one treatment more effective than another? Or, do men and women differ in their preference for a specific product? This metric is central in hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals, as seen with our 95% confidence interval calculation. Inferences drawn from the difference allow us to understand relationships or distinctions between sets of data.
Knowing the difference in proportions is vital because it helps in making logical conclusions grounded in data. Moreover, it sets the base for further statistical procedures such as calculating the standard error or constructing a confidence interval.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) is a key instrument in statistics that measures the accuracy of a sample mean by reflecting its variability. It quantifies the average distance the data points in our sample deviate from the true population mean. In simpler terms, the standard error gives us an idea of how much the sample results would vary if we selected multiple samples from the same population.
For computing a confidence interval for the difference in proportions, like the one in the problem, the standard error is crucial. It acts as a buffer, helping us estimate the true difference between two population proportions. In this case, the given standard error SE is 0.085.
  • The smaller the standard error, the more precise our estimate of the population parameter.
  • SE helps determine the margin of error, which widens or narrows the confidence interval, indicating the range within which the true population parameter likely falls.
Remember, when the standard error is derived from a bootstrap distribution, as mentioned, it often assumes a normal distribution, making it conducive to calculating intervals accurately. This reliance on the normal distribution is a cornerstone of many confidence intervals and tests.
Bootstrap Distribution
The concept of "bootstrap distribution" is an important method in statistics, especially when dealing with small samples or unknown populations. It involves resampling with replacement from the original data set to create many simulated samples. Each simulated sample is used to calculate a statistic of interest, like the mean or proportion.
The primary benefit of the bootstrap method is that it does not need the population distribution to be known. Instead, it creates an empirical distribution that approximates the real population. This is especially useful when making inferences or calculating statistics like the standard error.
  • Bootstrap is robust and widely applicable to various statistics as it yields more accurate and reliable estimates.
  • It provides us with a bootstrap distribution, which shows how our statistic, such as a sample mean or proportion, behaves across the resampled sets.
By relying on the bootstrap distribution for our standard error, we can maintain faith in our confidence interval calculations to reflect a realistic estimate of the difference between our proportions. This makes bootstrap a powerful tool in the statistician's toolbox, especially when traditional methods are unsuitable or the assumptions do not hold.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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