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91Ó°ÊÓ

Which one provides the strongest evidence against \(\mathrm{H}_{0} ?\) p-value \(=0.04\) or \(\quad\) p-value \(=0.62\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The p-value of \(0.04\) provides stronger evidence against the null hypothesis (\(H_{0}\)) compared to the p-value of \(0.62\).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the meaning of p-value

In hypothesis testing, the p-value is the probability of getting a result at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis (\(H_{0}\)) is true. The lower the p-value, the more incompatible our observed data is with \(H_{0}\), providing stronger evidence against it.
02

Comparing the provided p-values

Here we are comparing two p-values \(0.04\) and \(0.62\). As the p-value gets lower, the evidence against \(H_{0}\) and in favor of \(H_{1}\) becomes stronger. So between \(0.04\) and \(0.62\), the smaller value, which is \(0.04\), provides stronger evidence against \(H_{0}\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding the p-value
The p-value is a fundamental concept in hypothesis testing. It helps us determine the strength of the evidence against the null hypothesis (often denoted as \(H_0\)). When we conduct a hypothesis test, we check if any observed data is likely assuming the null hypothesis is true.
The p-value is the probability of observing data as extreme as or more extreme than what was actually observed. If the p-value is small, it suggests that such extreme results are unlikely under \(H_0\).
Key points to keep in mind about p-values include:
  • A p-value can range from 0 to 1.
  • Smaller values indicate stronger evidence against \(H_0\).
  • Researchers often use a threshold (like 0.05) to decide whether results are statistically significant.
In the given context, comparing p-values can show which scenario has more statistically significant results. A p-value of 0.04 suggests stronger evidence against \(H_0\) than a p-value of 0.62.
Decoding the Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis, represented as \(H_0\), is a statement used in hypothesis testing that assumes no effect or no difference exists.
It serves as a starting point for analysis, and the main goal of testing is to determine if there is enough statistical evidence to reject \(H_0\).
Hypothesis tests are structured around refuting \(H_0\) by showing that the observed data is unlikely under this assumption.
  • If the p-value is low, it suggests that the observed data is unlikely if \(H_0\) were true, which may lead researchers to reject \(H_0\).
  • The null hypothesis is generally considered not proven or disproven by the test alone. It is either rejected or not rejected based on the data.
This doesn't prove the alternative hypothesis but rather that the data doesn't support \(H_0\). Rejection of \(H_0\) leads researchers to consider that an alternative explanation may better fit the data.
Exploring Statistical Evidence
Statistical evidence is crucial in decision-making during hypothesis testing. It helps determine whether observed differences or effects are likely to be due to random variation or some other factor.
Using statistical evidence, researchers evaluate claims, test theories, and make informed decisions. The strength of statistical evidence is often evaluated by:
  • The size of the effect observed
  • The corresponding p-value
  • The sample size
A small p-value indicates strong statistical evidence against the null hypothesis, suggesting that the observed result is unlikely to occur simply by chance.
When statistical evidence leads to the rejection of \(H_0\), it implies that the results align more closely with an alternative hypothesis, \(H_1\). The primary focus is to gather ample and convincing evidence to responsibly challenge \(H_0\).

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Do You Own a Smartphone? A study \(^{19}\) conducted in July 2015 examines smartphone ownership by US adults. A random sample of 2001 people were surveyed, and the study shows that 688 of the 989 men own a smartphone and 671 of the 1012 women own a smartphone. We want to test whether the survey results provide evidence of a difference in the proportion owning a smartphone between men and women. (a) State the null and alternative hypotheses, and define the parameters. (b) Give the notation and value of the sample statistic. In the sample, which group has higher smartphone ownership: men or women? (c) Use StatKey or other technology to find the pvalue.

Could owning a cat as a child be related to mental illness later in life? Toxoplasmosis is a disease transmitted primarily through contact with cat feces, and has recently been linked with schizophrenia and other mental illnesses. Also, people infected with Toxoplasmosis tend to like cats more and are 2.5 times more likely to get in a car accident, due to delayed reaction times. The CDC estimates that about \(22.5 \%\) of Americans are infected with Toxoplasmosis (most have no symptoms), and this prevalence can be as high as \(95 \%\) in other parts of the world. A study \(^{37}\) randomly selected 262 people registered with the National Alliance for the Mentally Ill (NAMI), almost all of whom had schizophrenia, and for each person selected, chose two people from families without mental illness who were the same age, sex, and socioeconomic status as the person selected from NAMI. Each participant was asked whether or not they owned a cat as a child. The results showed that 136 of the 262 people in the mentally ill group had owned a cat, while 220 of the 522 people in the not mentally ill group had owned a cat. (a) This is known as a case-control study, where cases are selected as people with a specific disease or trait, and controls are chosen to be people without the disease or trait being studied. Both cases and controls are then asked about some variable from their past being studied as a potential risk factor. This is particularly useful for studying rare diseases (such as schizophrenia), because the design ensures a sufficient sample size of people with the disease. Can casecontrol studies such as this be used to infer a causal relationship between the hypothesized risk factor (e.g., cat ownership) and the disease (e.g., schizophrenia)? Why or why not? (b) In case-control studies, controls are usually chosen to be similar to the cases. For example, in this study each control was chosen to be the same age, sex, and socioeconomic status as the corresponding case. Why choose controls who are similar to the cases? (c) For this study, calculate the relevant difference in proportions; proportion of cases (those with schizophrenia) who owned a cat as a child minus proportion of controls (no mental illness) who owned a cat as a child. (d) For testing the hypothesis that the proportion of cat owners is higher in the schizophrenic group than the control group, use technology to generate a randomization distribution and calculate the p-value. (e) Do you think this provides evidence that there is an association between owning a cat as a child and developing schizophrenia? \(^{38}\) Why or why not?

Flying Home for the Holidays, On Time In Exercise 4.115 on page \(302,\) we compared the average difference between actual and scheduled arrival times for December flights on two major airlines: Delta and United. Suppose now that we are only interested in the proportion of flights arriving more than 30 minutes after the scheduled time. Of the 1,000 Delta flights, 67 arrived more than 30 minutes late, and of the 1,000 United flights, 160 arrived more than 30 minutes late. We are testing to see if this provides evidence to conclude that the proportion of flights that are over 30 minutes late is different between flying United or Delta. (a) State the null and alternative hypothesis. (b) What statistic will be recorded for each of the simulated samples to create the randomization distribution? What is the value of that statistic for the observed sample? (c) Use StatKey or other technology to create a randomization distribution. Estimate the p-value for the observed statistic found in part (b). (d) At a significance level of \(\alpha=0.01\), what is the conclusion of the test? Interpret in context. (e) Now assume we had only collected samples of size \(75,\) but got essentially the same proportions (5/75 late flights for Delta and \(12 / 75\) late flights for United). Repeating steps (b) through (d) on these smaller samples, do you come to the same conclusion?

Using the definition of a p-value, explain why the area in the tail of a randomization distribution is used to compute a p-value.

Give null and alternative hypotheses for a population proportion, as well as sample results. Use StatKey or other technology to generate a randomization distribution and calculate a p-value. StatKey tip: Use "Test for a Single Proportion" and then "Edit Data" to enter the sample information. Hypotheses: \(H_{0}: p=0.5\) vs \(H_{a}: p<0.5\) Sample data: \(\hat{p}=38 / 100=0.38\) with \(n=100\)

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