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For each situation described, indicate whether it makes more sense to use a relatively large significance level (such as \(\alpha=0.10\) ) or a relatively small significance level (such as \(\alpha=0.01\) ). Testing a new drug with potentially dangerous side effects to see if it is significantly better than the drug currently in use. If it is found to be more effective, it will be prescribed to millions of people.

Short Answer

Expert verified
It is more appropriate to use a relatively small significance level, such as \(\alpha = 0.01\), to minimize the risk of falsely declaring the new drug as more effective.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the context

In this situation, we are testing a new drug with potentially dangerous side effects to know if it is significantly better than the currently used drug. If we find it more effective, it will be prescribed to millions of people.
02

Interpreting significance level

A significance level (\(\alpha\)) is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true. Therefore, a larger \(\alpha\) means a greater chance of wrongly rejecting the null hypothesis (Type I error). In the context of this experiment, it would mean a greater chance of concluding that the new drug is more effective when it actually isn't.
03

Conclusion

Considering the stakes, including dangerous side effects and the drug potentially being prescribed to millions of people, a Type I error could have serious consequences. Consequently, it is better to use a relatively small \(\alpha\) (such as \(\alpha = 0.01\)). The lower \(\alpha\) reduces the chance of falsely concluding that the new drug is more effective, therefore minimizing the risk of prescribing an ineffective or potentially harmful drug to millions of people.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Type I Error
In hypothesis testing, a Type I error occurs when we reject a true null hypothesis. This means we believe our alternative idea or theory is correct, even if it's not. It's like saying a new treatment works better than an old one, when in reality, it doesn’t. This can create serious issues, especially in fields like medicine.
  • A Type I error can lead to wrong decisions being made.
  • Choosing a smaller significance level (\( \alpha \)) can help minimize this risk.
If our goal is to ensure public safety, like when testing a drug, we must be cautious about making Type I errors. Using a lower \( \alpha \), such as 0.01, helps reduce the likelihood of making this mistake, ensuring more confidence in our test results.
Drug Testing
When testing a new drug, scientists must determine if it outperforms existing treatments without causing serious side effects. This is a critical decision-making process which can affect many people.
  • Drugs must be both effective and safe for widespread use.
  • Researchers examine whether new treatments work better than old ones.
To do this effectively, clear and reliable evidence is needed. In the case of a drug that might have dangerous side effects, testing requires careful consideration to avoid Type I errors. Using a more stringent significance level like 0.01 ensures that any claim about the drug's effectiveness is backed by solid evidence. This reduces the risk of endorsing a faulty medication.
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis testing is a process used to decide if there is enough evidence to reject a given assumption or null hypothesis about a population parameter. It's a step-by-step procedure that helps researchers prove or disprove theories.
  • First, a null hypothesis assumes no effect or difference exists.
  • The alternative hypothesis suggests a significant effect or difference.
The significance level (\( \alpha \)) is central to hypothesis testing. It sets the threshold for how confident we must be to reject the null hypothesis. A smaller \( \alpha \) indicates stronger evidence is needed to make a claim against the null hypothesis. For something critical, like drug testing with potential health impacts, setting a lower \( \alpha \) is necessary. This precaution helps avoid claiming benefits of a new drug when it's not justified, thereby protecting public health.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Give null and alternative hypotheses for a population proportion, as well as sample results. Use StatKey or other technology to generate a randomization distribution and calculate a p-value. StatKey tip: Use "Test for a Single Proportion" and then "Edit Data" to enter the sample information. Hypotheses: \(H_{0}: p=0.5\) vs \(H_{a}: p \neq 0.5\) Sample data: \(\hat{p}=42 / 100=0.42\) with \(n=100\)

Give null and alternative hypotheses for a population proportion, as well as sample results. Use StatKey or other technology to generate a randomization distribution and calculate a p-value. StatKey tip: Use "Test for a Single Proportion" and then "Edit Data" to enter the sample information. Hypotheses: \(H_{0}: p=0.5\) vs \(H_{a}: p<0.5\) Sample data: \(\hat{p}=38 / 100=0.38\) with \(n=100\)

Exercise 2.19 on page 58 introduces a study examining whether giving antibiotics in infancy increases the likelihood that the child will be overweight. Prescription records were examined to determine whether or not antibiotics were prescribed during the first year of a child's life, and each child was classified as overweight or not at age 12. (Exercise 2.19 looked at the results for age 9.) The researchers compared the proportion overweight in each group. The study concludes that: "Infants receiving antibiotics in the first year of life were more likely to be overweight later in childhood compared with those who were unexposed \((32.4 \%\) versus \(18.2 \%\) at age 12 \(P=0.002) "\) (a) What is the explanatory variable? What is the response variable? Classify each as categorical or quantitative. (b) Is this an experiment or an observational study? (c) State the null and alternative hypotheses and define the parameters. (d) Give notation and the value of the relevant sample statistic. (e) Use the p-value to give the formal conclusion of the test (Reject \(H_{0}\) or Do not reject \(H_{0}\) ) and to give an indication of the strength of evidence for the result. (f) Can we conclude that whether or not children receive antibiotics in infancy causes the difference in proportion classified as overweight?

For each situation described, indicate whether it makes more sense to use a relatively large significance level (such as \(\alpha=0.10\) ) or a relatively small significance level (such as \(\alpha=0.01\) ). A pharmaceutical company is testing to see whether its new drug is significantly better than the existing drug on the market. It is more expensive than the existing drug. Which significance level would the company prefer? Which significance level would the consumer prefer?

We are conducting many hypothesis tests to test a claim. In every case, assume that the null hypothesis is true. Approximately how many of the tests will incorrectly find significance? 800 tests using a significance level of \(5 \%\).

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