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Who Smokes More: Male Students or Female Students? Data 1.1 on page 4 includes lots of information on a sample of 362 college students. The complete dataset is available at StudentSurvey. We see that 27 of the 193 males in the sample smoke while 16 of the 169 females in the sample smoke. (a) What is the best point estimate for the difference in the proportion of smokers, using male proportion minus female proportion? Which gender smokes more in the sample? (b) Find and interpret a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for the difference in proportions.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The best estimate for the difference in the proportion of smokers, using male proportion minus female proportion, is 0.045, suggesting more male students smoke. The 99% confidence interval for the difference in proportions is (0.001, 0.089)

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Proportions of Smokers in Each Group

First, the proportions of smokers within each group need to be calculated. This is done by dividing the number of smokers in each group by the total number of individuals in that group. For males, the proportion is calculated as \(27 ÷ 193 = 0.140\). For females, the proportion is \(16 ÷ 169 = 0.095\)
02

Calculate the Difference in Proportions

The difference in proportions (male proportion minus female proportion) is then calculated as \(0.140 - 0.095 = 0.045\)
03

Identify Which Gender Smokes More

By comparing the calculated proportions, it can be seen that the proportion of male students who smoke is greater than the proportion of female students who smoke in this sample.
04

Compute 99% Confidence Interval for the Difference in Proportions

The confidence interval can be calculated using the formula for the difference between two independent proportions. Here, z=2.58 for a 99% confidence level. Using the standard error for difference \(\sqrt{( p1*(1 - p1) / n1 ) + ( p2*(1 - p2) / n2 )}\), substituting appropriate values yields 0.023. The confidence interval is then found to be \[0.045 \pm 2.58 * 0.023\], which results in (0.001, 0.089).
05

Interpret the Confidence Interval

The 99% confidence interval suggests that, if many samples were taken and the 99% confidence interval computed for each sample, then 99% of those intervals would contain the true difference in smoking proportions between male and female students. In this case, we are 99% confident that the true difference in smoking proportions between male and female students in the population is between 0.001 and 0.089.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Point Estimate
When we talk about a point estimate in statistics, we refer to a single value that serves as the best guess or most plausible value of an unknown population parameter. It acts as a snapshot, providing a quick look at what the data seems to indicate about the population.

In the context of the exercise provided, the point estimate is concerned with the difference in smoking rates between two subsets of a population – male and female college students. It's determined by simply calculating the proportion of smokers in each group and taking the difference. The calculated point estimate tells us which group has a higher rate of smoking according to our sample. In this case, with males smoking at a rate of 0.140 and females at 0.095, males appear to smoke more with a point estimate difference of 0.045.

This type of analysis is crucial because it provides an immediate understanding of which direction the difference lies and how large that difference is in the sample. However, because it is based on a sample, it might not precisely represent the entire population. That's why it's important to also calculate a confidence interval, which we'll discuss next.
Confidence Interval
The term 'confidence interval' is a range of values, derived from the data, within which we can say with a certain level of confidence that the true population parameter lies. It is a measure of the reliability or precision of our point estimate – the wider the interval, the less precise our estimate, and vice versa.

In the exercise's step-by-step solution, you have already seen how to calculate a 99% confidence interval for the difference in proportions. This high level of confidence (99%) is chosen to reflect greater certainty. With the calculated interval ranging from 0.001 to 0.089, we're saying there's a 99% likelihood that the true difference in smoking rates between males and females in the general population falls somewhere within these two bounds.

It's crucial for students to understand that a confidence interval provides context for the point estimate. It does not simply tell us the range where the true difference is; it also indicates how confident we can be in our estimate. The interpretation given in the solution elaborates on this: If many samples were taken and the process repeated, the true difference would lie within these bounds 99% of the time. This concept is fundamental for drawing conclusions from sample data, as any single study could be an outlier due to chance.
Proportion Calculation
Proportion calculation is at the heart of many statistical analyses. It is the process of determining what fraction of a group has a particular characteristic. To calculate a proportion, you simply take the number of individuals with the characteristic and divide it by the total number in the group.

In our example, we calculate the proportion of smokers among males by dividing the number of male smokers (27) by the total number of males (193), yielding 0.140. We do the same for females to arrive at 0.095. By comparing these proportions, we gain insight into the behavior of the two groups within the sample.

Understanding how to calculate and interpret proportions is essential, as these values form the basis for further statistical methods, like hypothesis testing and the creation of confidence intervals. For example, if students need to analyze whether a new teaching method is more effective, they would first calculate the proportion of students who improved their grades under each method before making comparisons and conclusions. Therefore, proficiency in proportion calculation is a fundamental skill in the toolkit of anyone working with statistics.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Do You Prefer Pain over Solitude? Exercise 3.58 describes a study in which college students found it unpleasant to sit alone and think. The same article describes a second study in which college students appear to prefer receiving an electric shock to sitting in solitude. The article states that "when asked to spend 15 minutes in solitary thought, 12 of 18 men and 6 of 24 women voluntarily gave themselves at least one electric shock." Use this information to estimate the difference between men and women in the proportion preferring pain over solitude. The standard error of the estimate is 0.154 (a) Give notation for the quantity being estimated, and define any parameters used. (b) Give notation for the quantity that gives the best estimate, and give its value. (c) Give a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the quantity being estimated. (d) Is "no difference" between males and females a plausible value for the difference in proportions?

Use data from a study designed to examine the effect of doing synchronized movements (such as marching in step or doing synchronized dance steps) and the effect of exertion on many different variables, such as pain tolerance and attitudes toward others. In the study, 264 high school students in Brazil were randomly assigned to one of four groups reflecting whether or not movements were synchronized (Synch= yes or no) and level of activity (Exertion= high or low). \(^{49}\) Participants rated how close they felt to others in their group both before (CloseBefore) and after (CloseAfter) the activity, using a 7-point scale (1=least close to \(7=\) most close ). Participants also had their pain tolerance measured using pressure from a blood pressure cuff, by indicating when the pressure became too uncomfortable (up to a maximum pressure of \(300 \mathrm{mmHg}\) ). Higher numbers for this Pain Tolerance measure indicate higher pain tolerance. The full dataset is available in SynchronizedMovement. For each of the following problems: (a) Give notation for the quantity we are estimating, and define any relevant parameters. (b) Use StatKey or other technology to find the value of the sample statistic. Give the correct notation with your answer. (c) Use StatKey or other technology to find the standard error for the estimate. (d) Use the standard error to give a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the quantity we are estimating. (e) Interpret the confidence interval in context. Are Males or Females More Likely to Go to Maximum Pressure? The study recorded whether participants were female or male \((\operatorname{Sex}=\mathrm{F}\) or \(\mathrm{M})\), and we see that 33 of the 165 females and 42 of the 99 males allowed the pressure to reach its maximum level of \(300 \mathrm{mmHg}\) after treatment, without ever saying that the pain was too much. Use this information to estimate the difference in proportion of people who would allow the pressure to reach its maximum level after treatment, between females and males.

In Exercises 3.49 and 3.50 , a \(95 \%\) confidence interval is given, followed by possible values of the population parameter. Indicate which of the values are plausible values for the parameter and which are not. A \(95 \%\) confidence interval for a proportion is 0.72 to \(0.79 .\) Is the value given a plausible value of \(p ?\) (a) \(p=0.85\) (b) \(p=0.75\) (c) \(p=0.07\)

Do You Find Solitude Distressing? "For many people, being left alone with their thoughts is a most undesirable activity," says a psychologist involved in a study examining reactions to solitude. \({ }^{26}\) In the study, 146 college students were asked to hand over their cell phones and sit alone, thinking, for about 10 minutes. Afterward, 76 of the participants rated the experience as unpleasant. Use this information to estimate the proportion of all college students who would find it unpleasant to sit alone with their thoughts. (This reaction is not limited to college students: in a follow-up study involving adults ages 18 to 77 , a similar outcome was reported.) (a) Give notation for the quantity being estimated, and define any parameters used. (b) Give notation for the quantity that gives the best estimate, and give its value. (c) Give a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the quantity being estimated, given that the margin of error for the estimate is \(8 \%\).

In estimating the mean score on a fitness exam, we use an original sample of size \(n=30\) and a bootstrap distribution containing 5000 bootstrap samples to obtain a \(95 \%\) confidence interval of 67 to \(73 .\) In Exercises 3.106 to 3.111 , a change in this process is described. If all else stays the same, which of the following confidence intervals \((A, B,\) or \(C)\) is the most likely result after the change: \(\begin{array}{ll}A .66 \text { to } 74 & B .67 \text { to } 73\end{array}\) C. 67.5 to 72.5 Using 1000 bootstrap samples for the distribution.

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