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Do You Prefer Pain over Solitude? Exercise 3.58 describes a study in which college students found it unpleasant to sit alone and think. The same article describes a second study in which college students appear to prefer receiving an electric shock to sitting in solitude. The article states that "when asked to spend 15 minutes in solitary thought, 12 of 18 men and 6 of 24 women voluntarily gave themselves at least one electric shock." Use this information to estimate the difference between men and women in the proportion preferring pain over solitude. The standard error of the estimate is 0.154 (a) Give notation for the quantity being estimated, and define any parameters used. (b) Give notation for the quantity that gives the best estimate, and give its value. (c) Give a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the quantity being estimated. (d) Is "no difference" between males and females a plausible value for the difference in proportions?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The estimate for the difference in proportions of men and women who prefer pain over solitude (p_m - p_w) is 0.42 with a 95% confidence interval of [0.12, 0.72]. Based on this, 'no difference' is not a plausible value.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the proportions

First, calculate the proportions of men and women who prefer pain over solitude. For men, the proportion is \( \frac{12}{18} \approx 0.67 \). For women, it's \( \frac{6}{24} \approx 0.25 \).
02

Notation for the quantity being estimated

The quantity being estimated is the difference in proportions p_m - p_w, where p_m is the proportion of men preferring pain over solitude and p_w is the proportion of women preferring pain over solitude.
03

Calculate the best estimate

The best estimate is the observed difference in proportions, which is 0.67 - 0.25 = 0.42.
04

Calculate the 95% confidence interval

The formula for a confidence interval is \(estimate \pm (standard \, error \times z \, score)\). Here, the standard error is 0.154, and the z score for a 95% confidence interval is approximately 1.96. So, the confidence interval is \(0.42 \pm (0.154 \times 1.96)\), which after calculation gives approximately \(0.42 \pm 0.30\), or [0.12, 0.72]. This is the range in which we are 95% confident that the true difference in proportions lies.
05

Evaluate the plausibility of 'no difference'

Based on the computed 95% confidence interval, 'no difference' (i.e., a difference of 0) is not a plausible value for the difference in proportions, as 0 does not fall within the interval [0.12, 0.72].

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Confidence Interval
When we talk about a confidence interval, we're referring to a range of values, estimated from sample data, that is likely to contain the value of an unknown population parameter. In practical terms, it gives us a way to express the precision of our estimate. For example, saying that we are '95% confident that the true difference in proportions lies between 0.12 and 0.72' communicates that if we were to repeat our study many times, we would expect the true difference to fall within this range in 95 out of 100 cases.

It's also a handy way to discuss the reliability of estimates. A wider confidence interval might suggest greater variability in the data or a smaller sample size, whereas a narrower interval suggests more precision. In the context of the study involving pain and solitude preference in students, the confidence interval informs us about the estimated range where the true difference in the preference between men and women likely falls.
Standard Error
The standard error is a measure of the amount of variability in the sampling distribution of a statistic. In simpler terms, it helps us understand how much we would expect our estimate to vary if we took multiple samples from the same population. The standard error is important because it's used in calculating confidence intervals and for hypothesis testing.

In the exercise, the standard error is given as 0.154, which reflects the variability in the difference of proportions between the groups of men and women. A smaller standard error would indicate a more precise estimate, increasing confidence in our results. When we multiply the standard error by a z-score corresponding to our desired level of confidence (in this case, 1.96 for 95%), we're effectively scaling our measure of variability to create an interval that we believe encompasses the true parameter with the specified likelihood.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance is a term used to indicate whether the results of an analysis can reasonably be attributed to something other than random chance. Specifically, it helps us determine whether to reject a null hypothesis, which often posits that there's no effect or no difference. In the context of the pain versus solitude study, the null hypothesis might be that there's no difference between men's and women's preferences for pain over solitude.

If our confidence interval for the difference in proportions does not include zero, we have evidence against the null hypothesis. In our exercise, the confidence interval ranges from 0.12 to 0.72, which does not include zero—therefore, we might conclude there's a statistically significant difference in proportions. This isn't a guarantee that the effect is large or important, only that it's unlikely to be due to random sampling variability.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Student Misinterpretations Suppose that a student is working on a statistics project using data on pulse rates collected from a random sample of 100 students from her college. She finds a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for mean pulse rate to be (65.5,71.8) . Discuss how each of the statements below would indicate an improper interpretation of this interval. (a) I am \(95 \%\) sure that all students will have pulse rates between 65.5 and 71.8 beats per minute. (b) I am \(95 \%\) sure that the mean pulse rate for this sample of students will fall between 65.5 and 71.8 beats per minute. (c) I am 95\% sure that the confidence interval for the average pulse rate of all students at this college goes from 65.5 to 71.8 beats per minute. (d) I am sure that \(95 \%\) of all students at this college will have pulse rates between 65.5 and 71.8 beats per minute. (e) I am \(95 \%\) sure that the mean pulse rate for all US college students is between 65.5 and 71.8 beats per minute. (f) Of the mean pulse rates for students at this college, \(95 \%\) will fall between 65.5 and 71.8 beats per minute. (g) Of random samples of this size taken from students at this college, \(95 \%\) will have mean pulse rates between 65.5 and 71.8 beats per minute.

In estimating the mean score on a fitness exam, we use an original sample of size \(n=30\) and a bootstrap distribution containing 5000 bootstrap samples to obtain a \(95 \%\) confidence interval of 67 to \(73 .\) In Exercises 3.106 to 3.111 , a change in this process is described. If all else stays the same, which of the following confidence intervals \((A, B,\) or \(C)\) is the most likely result after the change: \(\begin{array}{ll}A .66 \text { to } 74 & B .67 \text { to } 73\end{array}\) C. 67.5 to 72.5 Using 10,000 bootstrap samples for the distribution.

SKILL BUILDER 1 In Exercises 3.41 to \(3.44,\) data from a sample is being used to estimate something about a population. In each case: (a) Give notation for the quantity that is being estimated. (b) Give notation for the quantity that gives the best estimate. Random samples of organic eggs and eggs that are not organic are used to estimate the difference in mean protein level between the two types of eggs.

Exercises 3.112 to 3.115 give information about the proportion of a sample that agree with a certain statement. Use StatKey or other technology to find a confidence interval at the given confidence level for the proportion of the population to agree, using percentiles from a bootstrap distribution. StatKey tip: Use "CI for Single Proportion" and then "Edit Data" to enter the sample information. Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval if 35 agree in a random sample of 100 people.

SKILL BUILDER 1 In Exercises 3.41 to \(3.44,\) data from a sample is being used to estimate something about a population. In each case: (a) Give notation for the quantity that is being estimated. (b) Give notation for the quantity that gives the best estimate. Random samples of people in Canada and people in Sweden are used to estimate the difference between the two countries in the proportion of people who have seen a hockey game (at any level) in the past year.

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