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A \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(p\) given that \(\hat{p}=0.38\) and \(n=500\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 95% confidence interval for p is \(0.38 ± 1.96*\sqrt{ \frac{0.38 * (1-0.38)}{500} }\)

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the Standard Error

The standard error (SE) is calculated using the formula: \(SE = \sqrt{\( \frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n} }\)\. We fill in the given values to find: \( SE = \sqrt{ \frac{0.38 * (1-0.38)}{500} }\).
02

Calculate the Confidence Interval

The confidence interval is given by the formula: \(\hat{p} ± z*SE\). We know that the z-value for a 95% confidence interval is approximately 1.96. After doing all these calculations, we get the confidence interval. So, the confidence interval is \(0.38 ± 1.96*\sqrt{ \frac{0.38 * (1-0.38)}{500} }\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Standard Error
The Standard Error (SE) is an important concept when calculating a confidence interval. It helps us understand how much variation exists between sample statistics and the true population parameters. To determine the SE for a sample proportion, we use the formula:
\[ SE = \sqrt{ \frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n} } \]
Here,
  • \( \hat{p} \) represents the sample proportion.
  • \( n \) is the sample size.
The purpose of the formula is to measure the average distance the sample proportion is from the actual population proportion in multiple samples.
In our scenario, with a sample proportion \( \hat{p} = 0.38 \) and sample size \( n = 500 \), substituting these values gives us an SE of \( \sqrt{ \frac{0.38 \times (1 - 0.38)}{500} } \). This indicates the variability we might expect if we sampled other groups of 500 from the same population.
Sample Proportion
The sample proportion, denoted as \( \hat{p} \), is a critical value in statistics which represents the proportion of a particular outcome within a sample.
In our example, \( \hat{p} = 0.38 \) means that 38% of our sample displays the characteristic we are analyzing. This value helps infer just how prevalent a feature is in a larger population.
Sample proportions are simple to calculate. Just divide the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of sample units. They are valuable because they provide a point estimate of the true population proportion.
It’s important to remember that \( \hat{p} \) is a random variable due to sampling variation. However, by finding the confidence interval, we can describe the confidence that the true population proportion falls within a certain range based on it.
Z-Value
The Z-Value is a statistical measure that helps determine how much standard deviation a data point is from the mean of a data set. In confidence intervals, it quantifies the level of confidence we desire in our estimate.
For a \(95\%\) confidence interval, which means we want to be 95% certain that our interval contains the true population parameter, the Z-Value is typically \(1.96\).
  • This Z-Value is derived from the standard normal distribution.
  • A Z-Value of \(1.96\) corresponds to the middle \(95\%\) of data in this distribution.
By multiplying the Z-Value by the standard error, \( z \times SE \), we calculate the margin of error for our confidence interval. Hence, given \( \hat{p} = 0.38 \), SE calculated previously, and Z-Value \(1.96\), we determine the range where the true population proportion likely falls, within a \(95\%\) confidence level.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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Standard Error from a Formula and Simulation In Exercises 6.15 to \(6.18,\) find the mean and standard error of the sample proportions two ways: (a) Use StatKey or other technology to simulate at least 1000 sample proportions. Give the mean and standard error and comment on whether the distribution appears to be normal. (b) Use the formulas in the Central Limit Theorem to compute the mean and standard error. Are the results similar to those found in part (a)? Sample proportions of sample size \(n=10\) from a population with \(p=0.2\)

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