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Standard Error from a Formula and Simulation In Exercises 6.15 to \(6.18,\) find the mean and standard error of the sample proportions two ways: (a) Use StatKey or other technology to simulate at least 1000 sample proportions. Give the mean and standard error and comment on whether the distribution appears to be normal. (b) Use the formulas in the Central Limit Theorem to compute the mean and standard error. Are the results similar to those found in part (a)? Sample proportions of sample size \(n=10\) from a population with \(p=0.2\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The mean calculated by both simulation and formula is 2. The standard error calculated by simulation will vary but should be close to \(\sqrt{1.6}\), the theoretical value calculated from the formula.

Step by step solution

01

Simulate Sample Proportions

Use a statistical software to simulate at least 1000 sample proportions for a population with \(p=0.2\), and sample size \(n=10\). Record the mean and standard error of these sample proportions and observe if the distribution approximates a normal distribution.
02

Formula-based calculation

Calculate the mean and standard error using the Central Limit Theorem formulas:The mean, \(\mu_x = np = 10*0.2 = 2\)And the standard error, \(\sigma_x = \sqrt{(npq)} = \sqrt{10 * 0.2 * (1-0.2)} = \sqrt{1.6}\)
03

Compare results

Compare the results from the simulation in step 1 and the calculations from step 2. This will give a good understanding of how close the simulated results are to the calculated theoretical results. We expect both the results to be similar which would validate the Central Limit Theorem.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportions
Understanding sample proportions is crucial in the field of statistics, especially when we aim to gather information about a population. In essence, the sample proportion is the fraction of items in a sample that possess a particular characteristic. For instance, if a sample of 100 fruits contains 20 apples, the sample proportion of apples would be 0.2 or 20%.

In the context of the provided exercise, the sample proportion refers to the frequency of success (in our case, assumed to have a probability, 'p', of 0.2) in a series of trials or a sample of size 'n'. When numerous samples are taken and their proportions calculated, we can analyze these sample proportions to make inferences about the population as a whole.

Through simulations or analytical methods, we can explore characteristics such as the mean of these proportions, which gives us an estimate of the population proportion, and the variability of these proportions, which is where standard error comes into play.
Standard Error
The term standard error may sound complex, but it's essentially a measure of the precision of a sample mean. More specifically, it reflects the average distance the sample mean is likely to be from the population mean if we were to take multiple samples. It is, therefore, an estimate of how much error we might expect in a statistical estimate.

In simple terms, a low standard error suggests our sample mean is close to the true population mean, whereas a high standard error indicates a wider spread and less confidence in our estimation. For a given sample size, the standard error of the sample mean can be calculated using the formula: \[\sigma_x = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}\],where '\(p\)' is the probability of success, '\(n\)' is the sample size, and '\(1-p\)' is the probability of failure. This formula is derived from the broader context of the Central Limit Theorem, which you'll see is integral in statistical analysis.
Simulation in Statistics
Now, shifting focus towards simulation in statistics, it's an invaluable tool to comprehend theoretical concepts and assess real-world scenarios. In the realm of statistics, a simulation involves generating random data that follows a specific distribution to mimic the process of sampling from a population.

By leveraging technology, we can simulate thousands of samples to investigate probabilities and other statistical properties without the cost and time needed to collect real-world data. In the exercise at hand, a simulation would allow us to create a large number of sample proportions to examine their mean and standard error and to determine how closely these simulated distributions align with a normal distribution.

Simulations provide compelling visual and numerical evidence and are a powerful means to support or refute statistical hypotheses. Moreover, they can affirm the theoretical results predicted by statistical theorems such as the Central Limit Theorem, thus giving students a tangible grasp of abstract concepts.
Normal Distribution
The normal distribution is one of the most important probability distributions in statistics. Often dubbed the bell curve due to its symmetric bell-shaped appearance, it describes how the values of a variable are distributed. It's defined by its mean (center of the distribution) and standard deviation (spread or width of the distribution).

Several aspects of daily life follow a normal distribution, including heights, blood pressure readings, and test scores. Central to understanding the normal distribution is the Central Limit Theorem, which asserts that the mean of a sufficiently large number of independent random variables, each with finite mean and variance, will be approximately normally distributed.

This theorem underpins many statistical methods and is why the shape of the distribution of sample means appears normal, even when the original population distribution is not. In exercises like the one described, confirming that the simulation of sample proportions leads to a normal distribution is crucial, as it supports the use of the normal model for inference and further calculations.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Use StatKey or other technology to generate a bootstrap distribution of sample means and find the standard error for that distribution. Compare the result to the standard error given by the Central Limit Theorem, using the sample standard deviation as an estimate of the population standard deviation. Mean price of used Mustang cars online (in \(\$ 1000\) s) using the data in MustangPrice with \(n=25,\) \(\bar{x}=15.98,\) and \(s=11.11\)

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Refer to a study on hormone replacement therapy. Until 2002 , hormone replacement therapy (HRT), taking hormones to replace those the body no longer makes after menopause, was commonly prescribed to post-menopausal women. However, in 2002 the results of a large clinical trial \(^{56}\) were published, causing most doctors to stop prescribing it and most women to stop using it, impacting the health of millions of women around the world. In the experiment, 8506 women were randomized to take HRT and 8102 were randomized to take a placebo. Table 6.16 shows the observed counts for several conditions over the five years of the study. (Note: The planned duration was 8.5 years. If Exercises 6.205 through 6.208 are done correctly, you will notice that several of the p-values are just below \(0.05 .\) The study was terminated as soon as HRT was shown to significantly increase risk (using a significance level of \(\alpha=0.05)\), because at that point it was unethical to continue forcing women to take HRT). Does HRT influence the chance of a woman getting invasive breast cancer? $$ \begin{array}{lcc} \hline \text { Condition } & \text { HRT Group } & \text { Placebo Group } \\ \hline \text { Cardiovascular Disease } & 164 & 122 \\ \text { Invasive Breast Cancer } & 166 & 124 \\ \text { Cancer (all) } & 502 & 458 \\ \text { Fractures } & 650 & 788 \\ \hline \end{array} $$

There were 2430 Major League Baseball (MLB) games played in 2009 , and the home team won the game in \(54.9 \%\) of the games. \({ }^{23}\) If we consider the games played in 2009 as a sample of all MLB games, test to see if there is evidence, at the \(1 \%\) level, that the home team wins more than half the games. Show all details of the test.

(a) Find the relevant sample proportions in each group and the pooled proportion. (b) Complete the hypothesis test using the normal distribution and show all details. Test whether there is a difference between two groups in the proportion who voted, if 45 out of a random sample of 70 in Group 1 voted and 56 out of a random sample of 100 in Group 2 voted.

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