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Guilty Verdicts in Court Cases A reporter on cnn.com stated in July 2010 that \(95 \%\) of all court cases that go to trial result in a guilty verdict. To test the accuracy of this claim, we collect a random sample of 2000 court cases that went to trial and record the proportion that resulted in a guilty verdict. (a) What is/are the relevant parameter(s)? What sample statistic(s) is/are used to conduct the test? (b) State the null and alternative hypotheses. (c) We assess evidence by considering how likely our sample results are when \(H_{0}\) is true. What does that mean in this case?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The relevant parameter is the proportion of guilty verdicts in all trials (\( P \)), while the sample statistic is the proportion of guilty verdicts in the sample of 2000 trials. The null hypothesis (\( H_{0} \)) is \( P = 0.95 \), and the alternate hypothesis (\( H_{A} \)) is \( P \neq 0.95 \). Assessing the evidence involves determining if our sample of 2000 trials could realistically come from a population with a guilty verdict proportion of 0.95.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Relevant Parameter

The relevant parameter in this case is the true proportion of guilty verdicts in all court cases that go to trial (\( P \)), said to be 0.95 according to cnn.com.
02

Identify the Sample Statistic

The sample statistic in this case would be the proportion of guilty verdicts in our random sample of 2000 court cases.
03

Establish the Null and Alternate Hypothesis

In this case, The null hypothesis (\( H_{0} \)) would be that the true proportion of guilty verdicts is 0.95 (\( P = 0.95 \)), as claimed by cnn.com. The alternate hypothesis (\( H_{A} \)) would be that the true proportion of guilty verdicts is not 0.95 (\( P \neq 0.95 \)).
04

Assess Evidence According to \(H_{0}\)

When we assess evidence by considering how likely our sample results are when \(H_{0}\) is true, we are essentially determining whether our sample data could reasonably have come from a population with a true guilty verdict proportion of 0.95. If our sample statistics notably deviate from 0.95, we would have evidence against \(H_{0}\) and in favour of \(H_{A}\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null and Alternative Hypothesis
Understanding the null and alternative hypotheses is central to hypothesis testing in statistics. When a claim is made, such as the proportion of guilty verdicts in court cases, we form hypotheses to determine if the claim can be statistically supported.

The null hypothesis (\(H_{0}\)) represents a statement of no effect or no difference. It is a default position that suggests that the 'status quo' is true. For our court case example, the null hypothesis posits that the true proportion of guilty verdicts, denoted as (\(P\)), is 95% (\(P = 0.95\)), aligning with the CNN report.

On the other hand, the alternative hypothesis (\(H_{A}\)) provides a statement that contradicts the null hypothesis. It suggests that the parameter is different from the value stated in the null hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis in the Guilty Verdicts case would be that the proportion of guilty verdicts is not 95% (\(P eq 0.95\)).

Testing these competing hypotheses involves using sample data to see which hypothesis is better supported by evidence. The null hypothesis is assumed true until our analysis indicates that it is unlikely to be correct.
Sample Statistic
A sample statistic is a numerical measure that describes some characteristic of a sample. In the context of hypothesis testing, the sample statistic is used to test the null hypothesis against the alternative hypothesis.

For our court cases, the sample statistic is the proportion of guilty verdicts observed in our sample of 2000 trials. This sample statistic serves as an estimate of the true parameter and is pivotal in deciding whether the data provides sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative.

When we collect this data, we're essentially drawing a snapshot from the larger population. The reliability of our conclusions depends heavily on the representativeness of our sample, the size of the sample, and the methodology used to collect the data.
Proportion of Guilty Verdicts
In statistics, the proportion of guilty verdicts is an example of a population proportion, which refers to the fraction of items in a population that exhibit a specific characteristic. In the context of the given problem, we are concerned with the proportion of all court cases that result in a guilty verdict.

To illustrate, if we take a sample of 2000 court cases and find that 1900 of them ended with a guilty verdict, the proportion of guilty verdicts in our sample would be (\(\frac{1900}{2000} = 0.95\)), supporting the claim made by CNN. This sample proportion acts as a critical piece of evidence to test the claim about the entire population of trial outcomes.

It is essential to understand that while the sample proportion can give us an insight into the population proportion, it is subject to variability due to chance. The larger the sample size, the more confidence we can have in our sample proportion accurately reflecting the population proportion.
Evidence Assessment in Hypothesis Testing
Evidence assessment is a cornerstone of hypothesis testing. It involves evaluating how well the sample data supports the null hypothesis.

When we look at the proportion of guilty verdicts in our sample and find a statistic that significantly deviates from the expected 95%, this might indicate that the true population proportion is not as the null hypothesis states. If such a deviation is unlikely to have occurred purely by chance, known by calculating a p-value, this could lead to the rejection of the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative. However, if the deviation is minor or could easily occur due to random sampling variability, we might not have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis.

The p-value in this analysis tells us the probability of getting our sample result (or more extreme) if the null hypothesis were true. If this probability is very low, it undermines the credibility of the null hypothesis and strengthens the case for the alternative hypothesis. The level of significance, often denoted as (\(\alpha\)), is a threshold set by researchers below which the null hypothesis will be rejected, commonly set at 0.05.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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