/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 9 A county commissioner must vote ... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

91Ó°ÊÓ

A county commissioner must vote on a resolution that would commit substantial resources to the construction of a sewer in an outlying residential area. Her fiscal decisions have been criticized in the past, so she decides to take a survey of constituents to find out wherher they favor spending money for a sewer system. She will vote to appropriate funds only if she can be reasonably sure that a majority of the people in her district favor the measure. What hypotheses should she test?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The commissioner should test two hypotheses: \(H0: p \leq 0.5\), 'A majority of constituents do not favor the measure', and \(Ha: p > 0.5\), 'A majority of constituents favor the measure'. She then conducts a survey and applies a suitable statistical test to decide which hypothesis is supported by data.

Step by step solution

01

Formulation of a null hypothesis

The null hypothesis (H0) would be that a majority of constituents do not favor the measure. In statistical terms, a majority would mean more than 50%. We specify this as \(H0: p \leq 0.5\), where \(p\) is the proportion of constituents who favor the measure.
02

Formulation of an alternative hypothesis

The alternative hypothesis (Ha) is what the commissioner hopes to prove - that a majority of constituents favor the measure. We specify this as \(Ha: p > 0.5\).
03

Collect data through the survey

The county commissioner will conduct a survey among her constituents to collect data which will later be used to test these hypotheses.
04

Statistical testing

The survey data will be used to test the null hypothesis against the alternative hypothesis. The details of this testing depend on the statistical test used (e.g., one-sample z test for proportion, chi-square test, etc). Depending on the p-value obtained from the test, the commissioner can decide whether or not to reject the null hypothesis.
05

Decision making

If the null hypothesis is rejected, this means there is statistically significant evidence that a majority of constituents do favor the measure, and the commissioner will vote to appropriate funds. If the null hypothesis is not rejected, this means there is not enough evidence to conclude that a majority of constituents favor the measure, and the commissioner will not vote to appropriate funds.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis, often symbolized as \(H_0\), represents a standard assumption that researchers begin with. In hypothesis testing, we start by assuming the status quo - nothing has changed or that a particular phenomenon does not exist. In the context of the county commissioner's decision on funding the sewer system, the null hypothesis states that a majority (more than 50%) of the constituents do not support the measure. It is expressed mathematically as \(H_0: p \leq 0.5\), where \(p\) stands for the proportion of constituents in favor.Null Hypotheses are crucial since they set the stage for understanding what you are testing against. Having a clear \(H_0\) allows you to measure if your collected data significantly deviates from this assumption.
Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis, denoted as \(H_a\), is directly opposed to the null hypothesis. It represents what the researcher aims to support through the testing process. For the county commissioner, this hypothesis supports the idea that a majority of constituents do favor the sewer measure. Mathematically, this is expressed as \(H_a: p > 0.5\). Having the alternative hypothesis helps guide the direction of the test. It sets what you are trying to prove with your data collection and statistical analysis. It indicates potential change or effect, motivating the collection and further examination of data.
Proportion Testing
Proportion testing is a statistical method used to determine if a sample proportion differs significantly from a specified population proportion. In the commissioner's survey, the sample proportion refers to the fraction of constituents who favor the measure among those surveyed. To test if this sample proportion is statistically larger than 50%, indicating majority support, a common approach would be to use a one-sample z-test for proportions.The process involves:
  • Calculating the sample proportion \( \hat{p} \)
  • Finding the z-score, which measures how far the sample proportion is from the null hypothesis proportion (0.5 in this case) in standard deviation units
  • Using the z-score to find the p-value, which helps decide if \( \hat{p} \) demonstrates significant support for \(H_a\)
If the p-value is low, it suggests that the null hypothesis might not hold, steering us towards the alternative hypothesis.
Survey Data Collection
Survey Data Collection is a fundamental part of hypothesis testing, especially in scenarios involving public opinion, like the commissioner's case. By conducting a survey, the commissioner aims to gather relevant data that reflects constituents' perspectives on the sewers. Key elements for effective survey data collection include:
  • Defining a representative sample of the population to ensure the results reflect the larger group accurately
  • Designing clear and unbiased survey questions to avoid influencing responses
  • Gathering and recording data systematically for integrity and reliability
The quality of your survey impacts the reliability of your hypothesis test. Careful planning and execution help ensure that the data collected can indeed support a meaningful and reliable test of the null and alternative hypotheses.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The article "Fewer Parolees Land Back Behind Bars" (Associated Press, April II, 2006 ) includes the following statement: "Just over \(38 \%\) of all felons who were released from prison in 2003 landed back behind bars by the end of the following year, the lowest rate since \(1979 . "\) Explain why it would not be necessary to carry out a hypothesis test to determine if the proportion of felons released in 2003 was less than .40 .

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Occasionally, warning flares of the type contained in most automobile emergency kits fail to ignite. A consumer advocacy group wants to investigate a claim against a manufacturer of flares brought by a person who claims that the proportion of defective flares is much higher than the value of .1 claimed by the manufacturer. A large number of flares will be tested, and the results will be used to decide between \(H_{0}: p=.1\) and \(H_{a}: p>.1,\) where \(p\) represents the proportion of defective flares made by this manufacturer. If \(H_{0}\) is rejected, charges of false advertising will be filed against the manufacturer. a. Explain why the alternative hypothesis was chosen to be \(H_{a}: p>.1 .\) b. In this context, describe Type I and Type II errors, and discuss the consequences of each.

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