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The interval from \(-2.33\) to \(1.75\) captures an area of \(.95\) under the \(z\) curve. This implies that another largesample \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\) has lower limit \(\bar{x}-2.33 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\) and upper limit \(\bar{x}+1.75 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\). Would you recommend using this \(95 \%\) interval over the \(95 \%\) interval \(\bar{x} \pm 1.96 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\) discussed in the text? Explain. (Hint: Look at the width of each interval.)

Short Answer

Expert verified
No, we would not recommend using the first 95% interval. The second interval, \(\bar{x}-1.96 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\) to \(\bar{x}+1.96 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\), is narrower and hence provides a more accurate estimation for the mean, \(\mu\). The difference in the interval widths is \(0.16 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\), indicating that the second interval is the more favorable one for estimating the parameter, \(\mu\).

Step by step solution

01

Calculation for the Width of the First Interval

The first interval is given as \(\bar{x}-2.33 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\) and \(\bar{x}+1.75 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\). Subtracting these two gives a width of \(4.08 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\).
02

Calculation for the Width of the Second Interval

The second interval is given as \(\bar{x}-1.96 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\) and \(\bar{x}+1.96 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\). Subtracting these two gives a width of \(3.92 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\).
03

Compare the Widths of Both Intervals

After calculating the widths of the two 95% confidence intervals, we find that the second interval, \(\bar{x}-1.96 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\) and \(\bar{x}+1.96 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\), is narrower than the first one by \(4.08-3.92=0.16 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\). Hence, this means the second interval provides a more accurate estimation for the mean, \(\mu\), in comparison to the first interval.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Z-Curve
The z-curve, or standard normal distribution, is a crucial concept in statistics, particularly when discussing confidence intervals. It represents the distribution of standardized values called z-scores, which are calculated from the original data values. A z-curve is symmetrical and has a bell-shaped pattern characterized by a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one.

A specific area under the z-curve corresponds to a particular proportion of the data. For example, a \.95 area under the curve indicates that 95% of the data falls within a certain range of z-scores. This area is often related to confidence intervals. In the given exercise, the interval from \( -2.33 \) to \( 1.75 \) captures this \.95 area, which is central to understanding how to construct confidence intervals for the population mean \( \mu \).
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation or dispersion found in a set of values. It shows how much the values in a dataset deviate from the mean and is symbolized as \( \sigma \). A low standard deviation means that most data points are close to the mean, whereas a high standard deviation indicates that data points are spread out over a wider range of values.

In the context of the exercise, the standard deviation is a critical component in calculating the width of the confidence intervals (e.g., \( \bar{x}-2.33 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \) and \( \bar{x}+1.75 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \) ). The value of \( \sigma \) directly influences the width of the interval—larger values of \( \sigma \) result in wider intervals, indicating more variability in the data and less precision in the estimation of \( \mu \).
Sample Size
The sample size, represented as \( n \), plays a vital role in statistical estimation and confidence intervals. Larger sample sizes typically lead to more precise estimations of population parameters because they tend to provide a more accurate representation of the population.

In the calculations for both intervals in the exercise, the term \( \sqrt{n} \) is the denominator, which shows that as the sample size increases, the width of the confidence interval decreases. This inverse relationship means that you can increase estimation accuracy by using a larger sample size. To decide whether a larger sample is needed, one should consider the trade-off between the cost of data collection and the desired precision of the estimate.
Estimation Accuracy
Estimation accuracy refers to how close a calculated interval is likely to come to the true population parameter, which in this case is the mean, \( \mu \). In practice, a narrower confidence interval suggests a more accurate estimate of the population mean because it reflects less variability and uncertainty in the sample data.

According to the exercise, the second interval with limits \( \bar{x} \pm 1.96 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \) is narrower by \( 0.16 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \) than the first interval, indicating it is a more precise estimator of \( \mu \). This demonstrates the importance of considering the width of the confidence interval when assessing estimation accuracy. Reducing the width of the confidence interval, while still capturing the desired confidence level, is generally recommended to achieve more accurate estimations.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The article "National Geographic, the Doomsday Machine," which appeared in the March 1976 issue of the Journal of Irreproducible Results (yes, there really is a journal by that name-it's a spoof of technical journals!) predicted dire consequences resulting from a nationwide buildup of National Geographic magazines. The author's predictions are based on the observation that the number of subscriptions for National Geographic is on the rise and that no one ever throws away a copy of National Geographic. A key to the analysis presented in the article is the weight of an issue of the magazine. Suppose that you were assigned the task of estimating the average weight of an issue of National Geographic. How many issues should you sample to estimate the average weight to within 0.1 oz with \(95 \%\) confidence? Assume that \(\sigma\) is known to be 1 oz.

In 1991, California imposed a "snack tax" (a sales tax on snack food) in an attempt to help balance the state budget. A proposed alternative tax was a \(12 \phi\) -per-pack increase in the cigarette tax. In a poll of 602 randomly selected California registered voters, 445 responded that they would have preferred the cigarette tax increase to the snack tax (Reno Gazette-Journal, August 26, 1991). Estimate the true proportion of California registered voters who preferred the cigarette tax increase; use a \(95 \%\) confidence interval.

An article in the Chicago Tribune (August 29,1999 ) reported that in a poll of residents of the Chicago suburbs, \(43 \%\) felt that their financial situation had improved during the past year. The following statement is from the article: "The findings of this Tribune poll are based on interviews with 930 randomly selected suburban residents. The sample included suburban Cook County plus DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry, and Will Counties. In a sample of this size, one can say with \(95 \%\) certainty that results will differ by no more than 3 percent from results obtained if all residents had been included in the poll." Comment on this statement. Give a statistical argument to justify the claim that the estimate of \(43 \%\) is within \(3 \%\) of the true proportion of residents who feel that their financial situation has improved.

The formula used to compute a confidence interval for the mean of a normal population when \(n\) is small is $$ \bar{x} \pm(t \text { critical value }) \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} $$ What is the appropriate \(t\) critical value for each of the following confidence levels and sample sizes? a. \(95 \%\) confidence, \(n=17\) b. \(90 \%\) confidence, \(n=12\) c. \(99 \%\) confidence, \(n=24\) d. \(90 \%\) confidence, \(n=25\) e. \(90 \%\) confidence, \(n=13\) f. \(95 \%\) confidence, \(n=10\)

The formula used to compute a large-sample confidence interval for \(\pi\) is $$ p \pm(z \text { critical value }) \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} $$ What is the appropriate \(z\) critical value for each of the following confidence levels? a. \(95 \%\) d. \(80 \%\) b. \(90 \%\) e. \(85 \%\) c. \(99 \%\)

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