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"Heinz Plays Catch-up After Under-Filling Ketchup Containers" is the headline of an article that appeared on CNN.com (November 30,2000 ). The article stated that Heinz had agreed to put an extra \(1 \%\) of ketchup into each ketchup container sold in California for a 1 -year period. Suppose that you want to make sure that Heinz is in fact fulfilling its end of the agreement. You plan to take a sample of 20 -oz bottles shipped to California, measure the amount of ketchup in each bottle, and then use the resulting data to estimate the mean amount of ketchup in each bottle. A small pilot study showed that the amount of ketchup in 20-oz bottles varied from \(19.9\) to \(20.3\) oz. How many bottles should be included in the sample if you want to estimate the true mean amount of ketchup to within \(0.1\) oz with \(95 \%\) confidence?

Short Answer

Expert verified
To estimate the true mean amount of ketchup to within 0.1 oz with 95% confidence, you need to take a sample of at least 4 bottles.

Step by step solution

01

Identify Known Values

From the problem, we know that the desired margin of error (E) is 0.1 oz, the standard deviation (s) can be estimated from the range as \( (20.3 - 19.9) / 4 = 0.1 \) oz, and the confidence level is 95%. Using a standard normal distribution table or calculator, the Z value (Zα/2) corresponding to a 95% confidence level is 1.96.
02

Apply Sample Size Estimation Formula

The formula for estimating sample size (n) in hypothesis testing is given by \( n = (Zα/2 * s / E)^2 \). Substituting the known values into this formula gives \( n = (1.96 * 0.1 / 0.1)^2 \).
03

Calculate Sample Size

Carrying out the calculation in Step 2 gives \( n = 1.96^2 \) which evaluates to approximately 3.84. Since the sample size cannot be a fraction, round up to the nearest whole number to get a sample size of 4.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Margin of Error
When conducting research or surveying, it is often impractical or impossible to collect data from every individual within a population. Instead, we rely on samples to make inferences about the population. One crucial concept in this process is the 'margin of error'. The margin of error is the range on either side of a sample's statistic that you expect the population's true value to fall within. Suppose we're looking at the amount of ketchup in bottles; if we calculate an average amount with a margin of error of ±0.1 oz, we're saying that we're confident the true mean amount of ketchup in all bottles is within that range.

To determine this margin, we must consider sample size, variability in the data, and the confidence level we desire. In the context of our example with the Heinz ketchup bottles, a smaller margin of error requires a larger sample size to ensure the same level of confidence. This inverse relationship ensures that the more precise our estimate needs to be, the more data we need to collect to support that precision.
Confidence Interval
The confidence interval is closely related to the margin of error and is a range of values within which we expect a population parameter, such as the mean, to lie with a certain degree of confidence. It's like saying, 'We are 95% confident that the true mean amount of ketchup in the bottles is between X and Y ounces.'

To calculate a confidence interval, we need an estimate of the population parameter (like the mean from our sample), the margin of error, and the sample's standard deviation. The broader the interval, the more uncertain we are about the population parameter, which is why we strive for the smallest possible interval without sacrificing confidence. In our example, the calculation of the confidence interval would take into account the variability in ketchup amounts as expressed by the pilot study and our desired 95% confidence level, leading to an interval that would include the true mean with high probability.
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis testing is a statistical method used to make decisions about the properties of a population based on sample data. Essentially, we're testing an assumption, or 'hypothesis', about the population's characteristics. In this ketchup scenario, one might hypothesize that Heinz is indeed adding the promised extra 1% of ketchup to each bottle. To test this, we collect sample data – in our case, the amount of ketchup in a number of randomly selected bottles.

The sample size plays a significant role here. An adequately sized sample ensures that the results of the test have validity. If the sample size is too small, the test might not be sensitive enough to detect subtle effects, or it may yield misleading results. The step-by-step solution provided explains how to calculate an appropriate sample size for our hypothesis-testing purposes, ensuring the confidence level and margin of error are maintained.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The article "National Geographic, the Doomsday Machine," which appeared in the March 1976 issue of the Journal of Irreproducible Results (yes, there really is a journal by that name-it's a spoof of technical journals!) predicted dire consequences resulting from a nationwide buildup of National Geographic magazines. The author's predictions are based on the observation that the number of subscriptions for National Geographic is on the rise and that no one ever throws away a copy of National Geographic. A key to the analysis presented in the article is the weight of an issue of the magazine. Suppose that you were assigned the task of estimating the average weight of an issue of National Geographic. How many issues should you sample to estimate the average weight to within 0.1 oz with \(95 \%\) confidence? Assume that \(\sigma\) is known to be 1 oz.

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Increases in worker injuries and disability claims have prompted renewed interest in workplace design and regulation. As one particular aspect of this, employees required to do regular lifting should not have to handle unsafe loads. The article "Anthropometric, Muscle Strength, and Spinal Mobility Characteristics as Predictors of the Rating of Acceptable Loads in Parcel Sorting" (Ergonomics [1992]: \(1033-1044\) ) reported on a study involving a random sample of \(n=18\) male postal workers. The sample mean rating of acceptable load attained with a work-simulating test was found to be \(\bar{x}=9.7 \mathrm{~kg}\). and the sample standard deviation was \(s=4.3 \mathrm{~kg}\). Suppose that in the population of all male postal workers, the distribution of rating of acceptable load can be modeled approximately using a normal distribution with mean value \(\mu\). Construct and interpret a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\).

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