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91Ó°ÊÓ

A professor of statistics wants to prepare a test paper by selecting five questions randomly from an online test bank available for his course. In the test bank, the proportion of questions labeled "HARD" is 0.3 . a. Find the probability that all the questions selected for the test are labeled HARD. b. Find the probability that none of the questions selected for the test is labeled HARD. c. Find the probability that less than half of the questions selected for the test are labeled HARD.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. 0.00243; b. 0.16807; c. 0.83692.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the problem type

This is a probability problem involving a binomial distribution because we have a fixed number of trials, two possible outcomes for each trial (a question is either HARD or not HARD), and a constant probability of selecting a HARD question.
02

Define the random variable

Let \(X\) be the random variable representing the number of questions labeled HARD. Since the selection of questions is a binomial process with \(n = 5\) and \(p = 0.3\), \(X\) follows a binomial distribution: \(X \sim \text{Binomial}(5, 0.3)\).
03

Find the probability all questions are HARD

To find the probability that all five questions are HARD, calculate \(P(X = 5)\): \[P(X = 5) = \binom{5}{5} (0.3)^5 (0.7)^0 = 1 \times (0.3)^5 \times 1 = 0.00243\]
04

Find the probability no questions are HARD

To find the probability that none of the questions are HARD, calculate \(P(X = 0)\): \[P(X = 0) = \binom{5}{0} (0.3)^0 (0.7)^5 = 1 \times 1 \times (0.7)^5 = 0.16807\]
05

Find the probability less than half are HARD

To find the probability that less than half of the questions (meaning 0, 1, or 2) are HARD, calculate the sum of these probabilities: \[P(X < 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)\] Calculating individually:- \(P(X = 1) = \binom{5}{1} (0.3)^1 (0.7)^4 = 5 \times 0.3 \times 0.2401 = 0.36015\)- \(P(X = 2) = \binom{5}{2} (0.3)^2 (0.7)^3 = 10 \times 0.09 \times 0.343 = 0.30870\)Therefore,\[P(X < 3) = 0.16807 + 0.36015 + 0.30870 = 0.83692\]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Calculation
Probability calculation can simplify complex scenarios into understandable and manageable pieces. Here, we're dealing with a binomial distribution, where events have two possible outcomes.By assigning probabilities to each outcome, we can predict how likely something is to happen across several trials.

In the case of the professor selecting questions, we know the proportion of "HARD" questions in the test bank is 0.3, or 30%. This means in each of the five trials (selecting five questions), there’s a 30% chance the question is "HARD" and a 70% chance it is not.
  • To find the probability all questions are HARD, we calculate it using the binomial probability formula: \( P(X = 5) = inom{5}{5} (0.3)^5 (0.7)^0 \).
  • Similarly, for none being HARD, we use: \( P(X = 0) = inom{5}{0} (0.3)^0 (0.7)^5 \).
  • When we look for less than half being HARD, we sum up probabilities for 0, 1, and 2 HARD questions.
The ability to calculate these probabilities allows us to solve real-world statistical problems with precision, using probabilities to make informed predictions.
Random Variable
A random variable is an essential element of probability theory. It’s a variable that can take different values, each determined by the outcome of a random event.

In our exercise, we define the random variable \(X\) as the number of questions labeled "HARD." Since the selection process follows a binomial model with \(n = 5\) and \(p = 0.3\), \(X\) represents the count of specified outcomes among five trials.
  • A random variable can be discrete or continuous. In this problem, \(X\) is discrete because it only takes integer values (specifically, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5).
  • This model is typical in situations with a fixed number of attempts, constant success probability, and two mutually exclusive possible outcomes.
Introducing a random variable serves as a framework for applying probability distributions, like the binomial distribution, to solve questions about the occurrence of specific events.
Statistical Problem Solving
Statistical problem solving often requires identifying the type of distribution that aligns with the scenario and recognizing data patterns.

In this instance, the professor's situation fits the criteria for a binomial distribution, allowing us to apply specific formulas to derive probabilities.

Here's a step-by-step approach:
  • Identify if the problem aligns with binomial traits: a fixed number of trials, two outcomes per trial, and consistent probability of success.
  • Set up a random variable to frame the problem within a mathematical construct.
  • Use the binomial formula to calculate relevant probabilities for each required event.
These steps systematically break down a complex problem into manageable tasks, simplifying the process of finding a solution, and making sense of data and variables.
By employing statistical problem solving, problems in many fields can be translated into logical, math-driven processes for better insights and decisions.

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