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91Ó°ÊÓ

Predict final exam from midterm In an introductory statistics course, \(x=\) midterm exam score and \(y=\) final exam score. Both have mean \(=80\) and standard deviation \(=10\). The correlation between the exam scores is 0.70 . a. Find the regression equation. b. Find the predicted final exam score for a student with midterm exam score \(=80\) and another with midterm exam score \(=90\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
Regression equation: \( y = 24 + 0.70x \). Predicted scores: 80 (for midterm 80) and 87 (for midterm 90).

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Regression Equation

The regression equation is used to predict the value of one variable based on the value of another. It is often written as: \[ y = a + bx \]where \( y \) is the predicted final score, \( x \) is the midterm score, \( a \) is the y-intercept, and \( b \) is the slope of the regression line.
02

Calculate the Slope (b)

The slope \( b \) is calculated using the formula: \[ b = r \times \frac{s_y}{s_x} \] where \( r = 0.70 \) is the correlation between midterm and final scores, and both \( s_x \) and \( s_y \) are 10. Thus,\[ b = 0.70 \times \frac{10}{10} = 0.70 \]
03

Calculate the Y-intercept (a)

The y-intercept \( a \) can be calculated using the equation for the mean of \( y \) and \( x \):\[ \bar{y} = a + b\bar{x} \]Given \( \bar{y} = 80 \), \( \bar{x} = 80 \), and \( b = 0.70 \), we have:\[ 80 = a + 0.70 \times 80 \]\[ 80 = a + 56 \]\[ a = 80 - 56 = 24 \]
04

Form the Regression Equation

Now that we have \( a = 24 \) and \( b = 0.70 \), we can write the regression equation as: \[ y = 24 + 0.70x \]
05

Predict Final Exam Score for Midterm 80

Use the regression equation to find the final score for a midterm score of 80: \[ y = 24 + 0.70 \times 80 \] \[ y = 24 + 56 = 80 \] Thus, the predicted final exam score is 80.
06

Predict Final Exam Score for Midterm 90

Use the regression equation to find the final score for a midterm score of 90: \[ y = 24 + 0.70 \times 90 \] \[ y = 24 + 63 = 87 \] Thus, the predicted final exam score is 87.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Correlation Coefficient
The correlation coefficient, often represented by the symbol \( r \), is a statistical measure that describes the strength and direction of a relationship between two variables. In the context of our exercise, the variables are the midterm exam score \( x \) and the final exam score \( y \). A correlation of 0.70 suggests a strong positive relationship between the two scores.
A correlation coefficient can range from -1 to 1:
  • A value of 1 indicates a perfect positive linear relationship.
  • A value of -1 indicates a perfect negative linear relationship.
  • A value of 0 suggests no linear relationship.
Thus, a correlation of 0.70 tells us that as midterm scores increase, final exam scores tend to increase as well. However, it's crucial to remember that correlation does not imply causation. This means while there's a notable association, other factors could also be influencing the scores.
Predictive Modeling
Predictive modeling involves using statistical techniques to forecast future outcomes based on historical data. One of the most common forms is linear regression, which we've used in this problem. The goal is to identify a relationship between predictors (independent variables) and outcomes (dependent variables) to make predictions about future events.
Linear regression, in particular, aims to fit a straight line (or regression line) through the data points that best predicts the outcome. It involves calculating:
  • The slope \( b \), which indicates the change in the predicted score for each one-unit change in the predictor (e.g., midterm score).
  • The y-intercept \( a \), representing the predicted final score when the midterm score is zero.
In practical terms, our regression model \( y = 24 + 0.70x \) helps predict a student's final exam score based on their midterm score. Such models can be invaluable in educational settings, assisting teachers in identifying students who might need additional support or resources.
Linear Equation
A linear equation forms the cornerstone of regression analysis when predicting outcomes based on relationships between two variables. In the context of this exercise, the linear equation is given by \( y = 24 + 0.70x \). This equation helps us understand how changes in one variable, the midterm score \( x \), affect another variable, the final score \( y \).
Breaking down this linear equation involves understanding its components:
  • Slope \( b \): Measures the rate of change; here, you expect a 0.70 increase in the final score for every additional point scored on the midterm.
  • Y-intercept \( a \): Represents the final score when the midterm score is zero. In practice, while this may not have a realistic interpretation in this context, it's mathematically necessary for defining the line.
With a clear understanding of the linear equation, educators can better predict and analyze students' performance. By applying such equations, they can derive insights that help optimize teaching strategies and educational interventions.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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