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Oil and GDP An article in the September \(16,2006,\) issue of The Economist showed a scatterplot for many nations relating the response variable annual oil \(y=\) consumption per person (in barrels) and the explanatory variable \(x=\) gross domestic product (GDP, per person, in thousands of dollars). The values shown on the plot were approximately as shown in the table. a. Create a data file and use it to construct a scatterplot. Interpret. b. Find and interpret the prediction equation. c. Find and interpret the correlation. d. Find and interpret the residual for Canada. \begin{tabular}{lcc} \hline Nation & GDP & Oil Consumption \\ \hline India & 3 & 1 \\ China & 8 & 2 \\ Brazil & 9 & 4 \\ Mexico & 10 & 7 \\ Russia & 11 & 8 \\ S. Korea & 20 & 18 \\ Italy & 29 & 12 \\ France & 30 & 13 \\ Britain & 31 & 11 \\ Germany & 31 & 12 \\ Japan & 31 & 16 \\ Canada & 34 & 26 \\ U.S. & 41 & 26 \\ \hline \end{tabular}

Short Answer

Expert verified
There is a positive correlation between GDP and oil consumption. The prediction equation models this relationship, with residuals showing prediction accuracy.

Step by step solution

01

Create a Data File and Construct a Scatterplot

Create a data file using the given values for the different nations, where each entry contains the GDP and corresponding oil consumption. Once the data file is created, use statistical software or a graphing calculator to plot this data on a scatterplot with GDP on the x-axis and oil consumption on the y-axis. This scatterplot helps visualize the relationship between GDP per person and oil consumption per person.
02

Interpret the Scatterplot

Examine the scatterplot: if points show an upward trend, it suggests that as GDP increases, oil consumption also increases. If the scatterplot shows clusters or linear patterns, identify them. Generally, in the plot, nations with higher GDP seem to consume more oil per person, indicating a positive correlation.
03

Calculate and Interpret the Prediction Equation

Using the least squares method, calculate the linear regression equation, which predicts oil consumption per person as a function of GDP. Let the prediction equation be in the form \( y = ax + b \). Compute the regression coefficients \( a \) and \( b \) using software/statistical tools. This equation models the relationship between GDP and oil consumption, allowing us to predict oil usage for any given GDP.
04

Calculate and Interpret the Correlation

Compute the correlation coefficient \( r \), which measures the strength and direction of the linear relationship between GDP and oil consumption. If \( r \) is close to 1, it indicates a strong positive correlation, suggesting that countries with higher GDPs consume more oil per person.
05

Calculate and Interpret the Residual for Canada

Using the prediction equation, calculate the predicted oil consumption for Canada, substituting Canada's GDP into the equation. The residual is the difference between the actual oil consumption (26 barrels) and the predicted value. A residual close to zero would indicate that the prediction model accurately estimates oil consumption for Canada.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

GDP
Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, is a measure of the economic performance of a country. It represents the total value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period within a nation. This value is often expressed in currency, such as dollars, and is typically adjusted for inflation to provide a more accurate comparison over time.

GDP per person is calculated by dividing the total GDP by the population of the country, giving us an individual perspective on economic productivity. In the exercise, GDP is measured per person in thousands of dollars. It serves as an explanatory variable, helping to understand other economic phenomena, such as oil consumption.

GDP can be influenced by several factors like technological innovation, resource availability, and economic policies. A higher GDP often signals a developed economy with greater consumer purchasing power and production capabilities. Understanding GDP is crucial when analyzing how different resources are utilized in varying economies.
Oil Consumption
Oil consumption per person refers to the average amount of oil used by an individual within a specific country over a set timeframe, typically measured in barrels per year. This is significant because oil is a primary energy source for many nations, powering vehicles, industries, and homes.

In the scatterplot exercise, oil consumption is used as the response variable. By observing how it varies with GDP, one can derive patterns about energy use as economies grow or shrink. For example, countries with higher GDP often show higher oil consumption, reflecting greater industrial activity and possibly more prevalent automobile use.

Oil consumption data helps policymakers plan for future energy needs and develop strategies for sustainable development. It's also instrumental in understanding a country's level of industrialization and its commitment to energy efficiency or alternative energy sources.
Correlation
Correlation is a statistical measure that expresses the extent to which two variables are linearly related. In simpler terms, it's about how closely one thing follows another. The correlation coefficient, denoted as \( r \), measures the strength and direction of this relationship.

In our exercise, we calculate the correlation between GDP and oil consumption, ranging from -1 to 1.
  • A correlation close to 1 implies a strong positive correlation: as GDP increases, oil consumption also increases.
  • A correlation close to -1 would mean a strong negative correlation, which isn't the case here.
  • A correlation around 0 indicates no linear relationship.
Understanding this connection helps predict changes in oil usage based on economic growth, enabling us to model how other nations might behave under similar economic circumstances.

This coefficient is vital for making informed predictions and understanding whether changes in GDP are likely to lead to changes in oil consumption.
Regression Equation
A regression equation establishes a linear relationship between two variables. It helps in predicting the value of one variable based on the other. The equation is typically in the form \( y = ax + b \), where:

  • \( y \) is the dependent variable (in this case, oil consumption).
  • \( x \) is the independent variable (GDP).
  • \( a \) is the slope of the line, which indicates how much \( y \) changes for each unit increase in \( x \).
  • \( b \) is the y-intercept, showing where the line crosses the y-axis when \( x = 0 \).
Through statistical methods like the least squares method, we find these coefficients to create a line of best fit.

In this exercise, the regression equation is used to predict oil consumption based on GDP. By plugging a country's GDP into the equation, one can estimate its likely oil usage. This predictive ability is valuable for planning and resource allocation, providing insights into future energy demand as economic conditions change.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

NAEP scores In 2015 , eighth-grade math scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress had a mean of 283.56 in Maryland compared to a mean of 284.37 in Connecticut (Source: http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/ naepdata/dataset.aspx). a. Identify the response variable and the explanatory variable. b. The means in Maryland were respectively \(274,284,285,\) 291 and 294 for people who reported the number of pages read in school and for homework, respectively as \(0-5,6-10,11-15,15-20\) and 20 or more. These means were 270,281,284,289 and 293 in Connecticut. Identify the third variable given here. Explain how it is possible for Maryland to have the higher mean for each class, yet for Connecticut to have the higher mean when the data are combined. (This is a case of Simpson's paradox for a quantitative response.)

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Wage bill of Premier League Clubs Data of the Premier League Clubs' wage bills was obtained from www.tsmplug .com. For the response variable \(y=\) wage bill in millions of pounds in 2014 and the explanatory variable \(x=\) wage bill in millions of pounds in \(2013, \hat{y}=-1.537+1.056 x\). a. How much do you predict the value of a club's wage bill to be in 2014 if in 2013 the club had a wage bill of (i) \(£ 100\) million, (ii) \(£ 200\) million? b. Using the results in part a, explain how to interpret the slope. c. Is the correlation between these variables positive or negative? Why? d. A Premier League club had a wage bill of \(£ 100\) million in 2013 and \(£ 105\) million in \(2014 .\) Find the residual and interpret it.

Describe a situation in which it is inappropriate to use the correlation to measure the association between two quantitative variables.

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