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91Ó°ÊÓ

Suppose that county planners are interested in learning about the proportion of county residents who would pay a fee for a curbside recycling service if the county were to offer this service. Two different people independently selected random samples of county residents and used their sample data to construct the following confidence intervals for the proportion who would pay for curbside recycling: Interval 1:(0.68,0.74) Interval 2:(0.68,0.72) a. Explain how it is possible that the two confidence intervals are not centered in the same place. b. Which of the two intervals conveys more precise information about the value of the population proportion? c. If both confidence intervals are associated with a \(95 \%\) confidence level, which confidence interval was based on the smaller sample size? How can you tell? d. If both confidence intervals were based on the same sample size, which interval has the higher confidence level? How can you tell?

Short Answer

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a. The two confidence intervals are not centered in the same place because they were calculated from different random samples, which may have different sample proportions and sample sizes. b. Interval 2 conveys more precise information about the population proportion as it has a smaller width (0.04) compared to Interval 1 (0.06). c. If both confidence intervals have the same 95% confidence level, Interval 1 was based on a smaller sample size, as it has a larger width (0.06) compared to Interval 2 (0.04). d. If both intervals have the same sample size, Interval 2 has a higher confidence level since it has a smaller width (0.04) compared to Interval 1 (0.06).

Step by step solution

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a. Confidence Intervals Not Centered in the Same Place

Confidence intervals are based on sample data, which may vary between samples. In this exercise, two different people independently selected random samples of county residents. As a result, their respective sample proportions and sample sizes may differ, causing the confidence intervals to be centered in different places.
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b. More Precise Confidence Interval

A more precise confidence interval will have a smaller width. In this case, Interval 1 has a width of 0.74 - 0.68 = 0.06, whereas Interval 2 has a width of 0.72 - 0.68 = 0.04. Since Interval 2 has a smaller width, it conveys more precise information about the value of the population proportion.
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c. Smaller Sample Size for the Same Confidence Level

The width of a confidence interval depends on the critical value, the sample proportion, and the sample size. If both confidence intervals are associated with a 95% confidence level, then they have the same critical value. Given that Interval 1 has a larger width (0.06) than Interval 2 (0.04), it implies that the sample size for Interval 1 is smaller than the sample size for Interval 2. This is because a smaller sample size will result in a larger standard error, leading to a wider confidence interval.
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d. Higher Confidence Level with Same Sample Size

If both confidence intervals have the same sample size, we can determine the higher confidence level based on the width of the intervals. A narrower interval (smaller width) implies a higher confidence level, as there is less uncertainty about the true population parameter. In this case, Interval 2 has a smaller width (0.04) compared to Interval 1 (0.06). Therefore, if both intervals have the same sample size, Interval 2 will have a higher confidence level.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Size
In statistics, sample size refers to the number of individual observations or participants included in a study. A larger sample size tends to provide a more accurate estimation of the population proportion because it reduces the standard error.

When constructing confidence intervals, a smaller sample size leads to increased variability, resulting in a wider interval. This showcases higher uncertainty because a small sample may not adequately represent the population. Conversely, a larger sample size results in a more stable, narrower confidence interval, thus offering more precise information.

It's important to consider how sample size affects statistical different outcomes. For example, if two studies produce different confidence intervals with the same confidence level, the sample size can often explain differences in precision. In this instance, the narrower confidence interval (Interval 2) was likely based on a larger sample size since it provides more precise estimates of the population proportion.
Population Proportion
Population proportion refers to the fraction of the entire population that possesses a certain characteristic. In the context of our exercise, it's the proportion of county residents willing to pay for curbside recycling services.

Statistically, when we compute sample proportions from different samples in the population, we attempt to estimate the actual population proportion. However, each sample may give slightly different sample proportions due to random variability. This discrepancy can cause confidence intervals derived from different samples to vary.

By understanding population proportion, one can appreciate why two confidence intervals such as in Interval 1 and Interval 2 might be centered differently. The random nature of sampling assures that no two samples are identical, hence the possible variation in estimated population proportions.
Statistical Precision
Statistical precision reflects how tightly we can estimate a parameter like a population proportion. In terms of confidence intervals, precision is depicted by the width of the interval. Narrower intervals indicate higher precision as they show a more confined estimate around the true population value.

Referring to the exercise, Interval 2 has a smaller width than Interval 1 (0.04 compared to 0.06), indicating higher precision. A more precise interval suggests that it might contain the true population proportion closer to its center, hence, providing more reliable information about the population.

In practical scenarios, achieving high statistical precision is crucial for making informed decisions. It often depends on the sample size and consistency of sample results. Generally, a large sample size helps in achieving a higher level of precision due to a smaller margin of error.
95% Confidence Level
A 95% confidence level implies that if we were to take many samples and build confidence intervals from each one, 95% of those intervals would contain the true population proportion. This percentage, known as the confidence level, indicates the reliability of an interval estimate.

However, the length of the interval does not necessarily reflect changes in confidence level directly; instead, a wider interval means less precision, though it may suggest a higher confidence level indirectly if the sample size is the same.

To illustrate this, if both confidence intervals in our example were created with a 95% confidence level, the difference in width is due to sample size. A decrease in sample size increases uncertainty and the interval's width, while a larger sample size yields a narrower interval. Thus, improving the confidence level demands balancing interval width with sample size to maintain manageable precision and reliability.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The formula used to calculate a large-sample confidence interval for \(p\) is $$ \hat{p} \pm(z \text { critical value }) \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} $$ What is the appropriate \(z\) critical value for each of the following confidence levels? a. \(90 \%\) b. \(99 \%\) c. \(80 \%\)

In \(2010,\) the online security firm Symantec estimated that \(63 \%\) of computer users don't change their passwords very often (www.cnet.com/news/survey-63-dont-change-passwords-very-often, retrieved November 19,2016\()\). Because this estimate may be outdated, suppose that you want to carry out a new survey to estimate the proportion of students at your school who do not change their password. You would like to determine the sample size required to estimate this proportion with a margin of error of 0.05 . a. Using 0.63 as a preliminary estimate, what is the required sample size if you want to estimate this proportion with a margin of error of \(0.05 ?\) b. How does the the sample size in part (a) compare to the sample size that would result from using the conservative value of \(0.5 ?\) c. What sample size would you recommend? Justify your answer.

For each of the following choices, explain which one would result in a wider large-sample confidence interval for \(p:\) a. \(90 \%\) confidence level or \(95 \%\) confidence level b. \(n=100\) or \(n=400\)

The article "Write It by Hand to Make It Stick" (Advertising Age, July 27,2016 ) summarizes data from a survey of 1001 students age 13 to 19 years. Of the students surveyed, 851 reported that they learn best using a mix of digital and nondigital tools. Construct and interpret \(\mathrm{a}\) \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of students age 13 to 19 who would say that they learn best using a mix of digital and nondigital tools. In order for the method used to construct the interval to be valid, what assumption about the sample must be reasonable?

In response to budget cuts, county officials are interested in learning about the proportion of county residents who favor closure of a county park rather than closure of a county library. In a random sample of 500 county residents, 198 favored closure of a county park. For èach of the three statements below, indicate if the statement is correct or incorrect. If the statement is incorrect, explain what makes it incorrect. Statement 1: It is unlikely that the estimate \(\hat{p}=0.396\) differs from the value of the actual population proportion by more than 0.043 . Statement 2 : The estimate \(\hat{p}=0.396\) will never differ from the value of the actual population proportion by more than \(0.043 .\) Statement 3: It is unlikely that the estimate \(\hat{p}=0.396\) differs from the value of the actual population proportion by more than 0.022 .

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