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The report "The 2016 Consumer Financial Literacy Survey" (The National Foundation for Credit Counseling, www.nfcc.org, retrieved October 28,2016 ) summarized data from a representative sample of 1668 adult Americans. Based on data from this sample, it was reported that over half of U.S. adults would give themselves a grade of \(\mathrm{A}\) or \(\mathrm{B}\) on their knowledge of personal finance. This statement was based on observing that 934 people in the sample would have given themselves a grade of \(\mathrm{A}\) or \(\mathrm{B}\). a. Construct and interpret a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of all adult Americans who would give themselves a grade of \(\mathrm{A}\) or \(\mathrm{B}\) on their financial knowledge of personal finance. b. Is the confidence interval from Part (a) consistent with the statement that a majority of adult Americans would give themselves a grade of \(\mathrm{A}\) or \(\mathrm{B}\) ? Explain why or why not.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. The 95% confidence interval for the population proportion is calculated using the formula: \(\hat{p} \pm 1.96 \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}}\), where \(\hat{p} = \frac{934}{1668}\). This gives us a confidence interval of approximately (0.545, 0.625). b. The confidence interval from part a) is (0.545, 0.625), and since 0.5 lies within this interval, it is consistent with the statement that a majority of adult Americans would give themselves a grade of A or B on their knowledge of personal finance.

Step by step solution

01

a. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the proportion.

First, we need to calculate the sample proportion, denoted as \(\hat{p}\). $$\hat{p} = \frac{934}{1668}$$ Next, we need to construct the 95% confidence interval for the population proportion, denoted as \(p\), using the formula: $$\hat{p} \pm z \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}}$$ Where \(z\) is the critical value for a 95% confidence interval, \(n\) is the sample size, and \(\hat{p}\) is the sample proportion. For a 95% confidence interval, the critical value \(z\) is 1.96. Now substitute the values into the formula to calculate the confidence interval.
02

b. Check the consistency of the confidence interval.

In this part, we need to see if the confidence interval from part a) is consistent with the statement that a majority of adult Americans would give themselves a grade of A or B. A majority would mean that over 50% of adult Americans would give themselves an A or B. We will check if this is true by comparing 0.5 with the confidence interval obtained in part a). If 0.5 lies within the confidence interval, the statement is consistent. If not, the statement is not supported. Finally, we can interpret the results and draw conclusions based on the confidence interval.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
When conducting surveys or studies, researchers often deal with a specific subset of the entire population they're interested in, which is known as a sample. The sample proportion, denoted as \(\hat{p}\), is a statistic that represents the ratio of individuals in the sample with a particular characteristic to the total number of individuals in the sample.

For instance, in the exercise pertaining to financial literacy, 934 out of 1668 adult Americans gave themselves an A or B grade for their knowledge of personal finance. The sample proportion is calculated using the formula \(\hat{p} = \frac{934}{1668}\). This proportion is crucial as it is used to estimate the population proportion and build confidence intervals. Understanding the sample proportion helps researchers and statisticians to make inferences about the broader population, while recognizing that it is an estimate subject to sampling variability.
Population Proportion
The population proportion, denoted as \(p\), is a measure representing the fraction of individuals in the entire population having a certain characteristic. Unlike the sample proportion, the population proportion is usually unknown and is the parameter that researchers are trying to estimate by using sample data.

Confidence intervals are a statistical tool used to estimate the population proportion from the sample proportion. The confidence interval suggests a range of plausible values for the population proportion and the degree of confidence (probability) that this interval actually contains the true proportion. In practical terms, when we say we've constructed a 95% confidence interval for the population proportion of, for example, U.S. adults who would rate their financial knowledge with an A or B, we are indicating that if we were to take many samples and build an interval from each, we expect about 95% of these intervals to cover the true population proportion.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance is a concept used to determine whether the results of a study or experiment are likely not due to random chance. This significance is often tested using a p-value, which quantifies the probability of observing the results, or more extreme, assuming that the null hypothesis is true (that there is no effect or difference).

A result is considered statistically significant if the p-value is below a predetermined threshold, commonly set at 0.05 or 5%. If our confidence interval for the population proportion of U.S. adults who would give themselves a grade of A or B does not include the benchmark proportion (in this case, 50% for a majority), then we might say that the result is statistically significant, indicating that the observed sample proportion is not due merely to random variation but reflects a real difference in the population.
Critical Value
The critical value in statistics is a point on the scale of the test statistic beyond which we reject the null hypothesis; it is associated with the desired level of significance or confidence level. In confidence interval estimation, the critical value determines how wide the confidence interval will be.

For a common confidence level of 95%, the critical value corresponds to the value such that 95% of the area of the normal distribution falls within plus or minus this value from the mean. This critical value is often denoted by \(z\) when the sampling distribution is normal or nearly normal. For example, the 95% confidence level corresponds to a critical value of approximately 1.96. Multiplying this value by the standard error gives us the margin of error for our confidence interval, indicating the precision of our estimate related to the sample proportion.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

If two statistics are available for estimating a population characteristic, under what circumstances might you choose a biased statistic over an unbiased statistic?

Consider taking a random sample from a population with \(p=0.40\). a. What is the standard error of \(\hat{p}\) for random samples of size \(100 ?\) b. Would the standard error of \(\hat{p}\) be greater for samples of size 100 or samples of size \(200 ?\) c. If the sample size were doubled from 100 to 200 , by what factor would the standard error of \(\hat{p}\) decrease?

Data from a representative sample were used to estimate that \(32 \%\) of all computer users in 2011 had tried to get on a Wi-Fi network that was not their own in order to save money (USA TODAY, May 16,2011 ). You decide to conduct a survey to estimate this proportion for the current year. What is the required sample size if you want to estimate this proportion with a margin of error of \(0.05 ?\) Calculate the required sample size first using 0.32 as a preliminary estimate of \(p\) and then using the conservative value of \(0.5 .\) How do the two sample sizes compare? What sample size would you recommend for this study?

For estimating a population characteristic, why is an unbiased statistic generally preferred over a biased statistic? Does unbiasedness alone guarantee that the estimate will be close to the actual value of the population characteristic? Explain.

The formula used to calculate a large-sample confidence interval for \(p\) is $$ \hat{p} \pm(z \text { critical value }) \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} $$ What is the appropriate \(z\) critical value for each of the following confidence levels? a. \(90 \%\) b. \(99 \%\) c. \(80 \%\)

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