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91Ó°ÊÓ

Suppose that the amount of time spent by a statistical consultant with a client at their first meeting is a random variable that has a normal distribution with a mean value of 60 minutes and a standard deviation of 10 minutes. a. What is the probability that more than 45 minutes is spent at the first meeting? b. What amount of time is exceeded by only \(10 \%\) of all clients at a first meeting?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. The probability of spending more than 45 minutes at the first meeting is 93.32%. b. 10% of all clients exceed a time of approximately 72.8 minutes at the first meeting.

Step by step solution

01

Identify given information

The given information in the exercise is as follows: - Mean value (μ) = 60 minutes - Standard deviation (σ) = 10 minutes
02

Calculate the Z-score for part a

To find the probability that more than 45 minutes is spent at the first meeting, convert the time to the corresponding Z-score: \(Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}\) Using the given values: \(Z = \frac{45 - 60}{10} = \frac{-15}{10} = -1.5\)
03

Find the probability for part a

To find the probability that more than 45 minutes is spent at the first meeting, we need to find the area under the standard normal curve to the right of Z = -1.5. This can be expressed as: \(P(Z > -1.5)\) Now, use a Z-table (standard normal distribution table) to find the probability. Since Z-tables typically give the cumulative probability from the left, we need to find the probability as: \(P(Z > -1.5) = 1 - P(Z <= -1.5)\) Referring to a Z-table, we find that: \(P(Z <= -1.5) = 0.0668\) Now, calculate the desired probability: \(P(Z > -1.5) = 1 - 0.0668 = 0.9332\) So, there is a 93.32% chance of spending more than 45 minutes at the first meeting.
04

Calculate the Z-score for part b

To find the time value that only 10% of all clients exceed, we must find the Z-score that corresponds to a cumulative probability of 1 - 10% = 90%. Using a Z-table, look for the closest value to 0.9000 and find the corresponding Z-score, which is approximately: \(Z = 1.28\)
05

Convert Z-score to time value for part b

Using the Z-score, we can now find the actual time value (X) that 10% of all clients exceed at the first meeting. To do this, use the formula: \(X = \mu + Z \times \sigma\) With the given values: \(X = 60 + 1.28 \times 10\) \(X = 60 + 12.8\) \(X = 72.8\) Thus, 10% of all clients exceed a time of approximately 72.8 minutes at the first meeting.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Z-score Calculation
Understanding the concept of a Z-score in statistics is essential for grasping how we deal with data on normal distribution. A Z-score, also known as a standard score, provides a way of describing a data point's relationship to the mean of a group of values, measured in terms of standard deviations from the mean.

To calculate the Z-score of a particular value, you use the formula:
\(Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}\)
where:
- \(X\) is the value of interest,
- \(\mu\) is the mean of the population, and
- \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation.

This calculation was demonstrated in the exercise when the time spent by a consultant exceeded 45 minutes. By subtracting the mean (60 minutes) from the value of interest (45 minutes) and dividing it by the standard deviation (10 minutes), we attained a Z-score of -1.5. This Z-score represents how many standard deviations the value is below the mean—a crucial step in finding the corresponding probability.
Standard Normal Curve
The standard normal curve, or the bell curve, is a visual representation of a normal distribution where the mean is at the center and data points spread symmetrically around it. With a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1, this curve allows us to easily understand probabilities and standard deviations for data under the normal distribution.

When you calculate a Z-score, you essentially 'standardize' a value to fit on this curve. This transformation allows statisticians to use standard normal distribution tables (Z-tables) to find probabilities of interest. In the exercise, finding the probability that more than 45 minutes is spent at a meeting involved consulting a Z-table to determine the area under the curve to the right of the Z-score (-1.5).

It's important to note that because the standard normal curve is symmetrical, probabilities for negative Z-scores can be translated to 'greater than' probabilities with a simple subtraction from 1, as seen with the probability of 93.32% for spending more than 45 minutes at the meeting.
Probability in Statistics
Probability is a fundamental concept in statistics that deals with the likelihood of events occurring. It ranges from 0 (an event will definitely not occur) to 1 (an event will definitely occur).

In the context of normal distribution, probability can refer to the likelihood that a random variable falls within a certain range. Probabilities are calculated using areas under the standard normal curve for continuous distributions, such as time spent in a meeting.

The Z-score enables us to translate a specific value into a probability by consulting a standard normal distribution table. For example, in the exercise, we determined there is a 10% chance that a client's meeting will exceed 72.8 minutes, based on the Z-score corresponding to a cumulative probability of 90%.

Grasping probabilities in statistics is vital—not just for academic exercises, but also for making informed decisions based on data in real-life scenarios.

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