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Suppose that for a particular hypothesis test, the consequences of a Type I error are not very serious, but there are serious consequences associated with making a Type II error. Would you want to carry out the test using a small significance level \(\alpha\) (such as 0.01 ) or a larger significance level (such as 0.10 )? Explain the reason for your choice.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Given the scenario, it would be better to use a larger significance level such as 0.10. This is because an increased Type I error rate (which isn't serious in this case) decreases the chance of making a Type II error, which is serious for this particular scenario.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the problem

The problem asks for what significance level to use when the consequences of making a Type II error are more serious than making a Type I error. The error type is related to the significance level \(\alpha\), which is the probability of making a Type I error. Increasing the value of \(\alpha\) increases the probability of making a Type I error, while decreasing the probability of making a Type II error.
02

Decide on the significance level

Given the consequences, it would be preferable to use a larger significance level such as 0.10. Using a larger significance level increases the chance of making a Type I error (which is not serious in this case) and lowers the probability of making a Type II error (which has serious consequences in this situation).
03

Explain the choice

The choice to use a larger significance level is based on the fact that while it does increase the probability of making a Type I error, these errors are not serious in this case. However, it decreases the probability of making a Type II error, which in this context, has severe consequences.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Type I and Type II Errors
When conducting hypothesis testing in statistics, two common types of errors can occur: Type I errors and Type II errors. A Type I error, also known as a false positive, happens when a true null hypothesis is incorrectly rejected. In other words, it's when you think you've found a significant effect or difference when there is none. Conversely, a Type II error, also referred to as a false negative, occurs when the null hypothesis is not rejected when it is actually false—you miss the effect or difference that is really there. Understanding the balance between these errors is critical because they have inverse relationships to each other: increasing the probability of one typically decreases the probability of the other.

For instance, in a medical scenario, a Type I error might mean telling a healthy patient that they are sick (a false alarm), whereas a Type II error would be not detecting an illness in a patient who is actually sick (a missed detection). Both errors have implications, but the severity and context determine which one has more serious outcomes. In the given exercise, the researcher faces a situation where a Type II error has more serious consequences than a Type I error, thus subtly pushing the decision towards accepting a higher chance of a Type I error to reduce the chances of the more critical Type II error.
Probability of Error in Statistics
The probability of committing a Type I error in hypothesis testing is denoted as \(\alpha\), known as the significance level. Traditionally, \(\alpha\) levels such as 0.01, 0.05, or 0.10 are used in research, highlighting a 1%, 5%, or 10% probability respectively of rejecting a true null hypothesis. Deciding on the significance level is a key step in hypothesis testing because it frames the threshold for how unusual data must be before concluding that there is an effect or difference. A lower \(\alpha\) means being more conservative, requiring stronger evidence before rejecting the null hypothesis, thus leading to a lower chance of a Type I error.

Selecting an \(\alpha\) is often based on the consequences of errors. In situations where a Type I error has minor consequences but a Type II error could have major repercussions, such as failing to detect a serious disease, researchers might choose a higher \(\alpha\) level. This increases the probability of detecting true effects (at the expense of more false alarms), which is a strategic choice when the stakes of missing something important are high.
Consequences of Statistical Errors
Both Type I and Type II errors carry potential consequences that can vary widely depending on the field of application. The impact of these errors range from minor inconveniences to significant losses or even life-threatening situations. For instance, in the pharmaceutical industry, a Type I error could result in the approval of an ineffective drug, while a Type II error might mean a beneficial drug is overlooked. In environmental studies, a Type I error could lead to unnecessary spending on non-existent issues, while a Type II error could cause us to ignore serious environmental damage.

In the context of the exercise at hand, as the consequences of a Type II error are considered to be serious, the preferable course of action is to use a larger significance level to lower the chances of such an error. This approach underscores the significance in choosing the appropriate level of \(\alpha\) depending on which error has more severe consequences in the given context, which is a critical decision-making aspect in statistical hypothesis testing.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

According to a Washington Post-ABC News poll, 331 of 502 randomly selected U.S. adults said they would not be bothered if the National Security Agency collected records of personal telephone calls. Is there sufficient evidence to conclude that a majority of U.S. adults feel this way? Test the appropriate hypotheses using a 0.01 significance level.

The article "Poll Finds Most Oppose Return to Draft, Wouldn't Encourage Children to Enlist" (Associated Press, December 18,2005 ) reports that in a random sample of 1,000 American adults, 430 answered yes to the following question: "If the military draft were reinstated, would you favor drafting women as well as men?" The data were used to test \(H_{0}: p=0.5\) versus \(H_{i}: p<0.5,\) and the null hypothesis was rejected. (Hint: See discussion at bottom of page 426\()\) a. Based on the result of the hypothesis test, what can you conclude about the proportion of American adults who favor drafting women if a military draft were reinstated? b. Is it reasonable to say that the data provide strong support for the alternative hypothesis? c. Is it reasonable to say that the data provide strong evidence against the null hypothesis?

USA Today (Feb. 17,2011 ) reported that \(10 \%\) of 1,008 American adults surveyed about their use of e-mail said that they had ended a relationship by e-mail. You would like to use this information to estimate the proportion of all adult Americans who have used e-mail to end a relationship.

The article "Breast-Feeding Rates Up Early" (USA Today, Sept. 14,2010 ) summarizes a survey of mothers whose babies were born in \(2009 .\) The Center for Disease Control sets goals for the proportion of mothers who will still be breast-feeding their babies at various ages. The goal for 12 months after birth is 0.25 or more. Suppose that the survey used a random sample of 1,200 mothers and that you want to use the survey data to decide if there is evidence that the goal is not being met. Let \(p\) denote the proportion of all mothers of babies born in 2009 who were still breast-feeding at 12 months. (Hint: See Example 10.10 ) a. Describe the shape, center, and spread of the sampling distribution of \(\hat{p}\) for random samples of size 1,200 if the null hypothesis \(H_{0}: p=0.25\) is true. b. Would you be surprised to observe a sample proportion as small as \(\hat{p}=0.24\) for a sample of size 1,200 if the null hypothesis \(H_{0}: p=0.25\) were true? Explain why or why not. c. Would you be surprised to observe a sample proportion as small as \(\hat{p}=0.20\) for a sample of size 1,200 if the null hypothesis \(H_{0}: p=0.25\) were true? Explain why or why not. d. The actual sample proportion observed in the study was \(\hat{p}=0.22 .\) Based on this sample proportion, is there convincing evidence that the goal is not being met, or is the observed sample proportion consistent with what you would expect to see when the null hypothesis is true? Support your answer with a probability calculation.

A television station has been providing live coverage of a sensational criminal trial. The station's program director wants to know if more than half of potential viewers prefer a return to regular daytime programming. A survey of randomly selected viewers is conducted. With \(p\) representing the proportion of all viewers who prefer regular daytime programming, what hypotheses should the program director test?

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