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Acceptance Sampling A shipment of 50,000 transistors arrives at a manufacturing plant. The quality control engineer at the plant obtains a random sample of 500 resistors and will reject the entire shipment if 10 or more of the resistors are defective. Suppose that \(4 \%\) of the resistors in the whole shipment are defective. What is the probability the engineer accepts the shipment? Do you believe the acceptance policy of the engineer is sound?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability of accepting the shipment is approximately 0.82%, making the acceptance policy quite strict.

Step by step solution

01

Determine the number of defective resistors in the sample

First, compute the expected number of defective resistors in a random sample of 500 resistors if the defective rate is 4%. This is calculated as: \[ E(D) = 500 \times 0.04 = 20 \]
02

Identify the rejection criteria

The shipment will be rejected if there are 10 or more defective resistors in the sample. Thus, to be accepted, there must be fewer than 10 defective resistors.
03

Define the random variable

Let the random variable \( D \) represent the number of defective resistors in the sample of 500. This follows a binomial distribution since each resistor can either be defective or not.
04

Calculate the probability

The probability of accepting the shipment is the probability that there are fewer than 10 defective resistors in the sample. Using the binomial distribution formula: \[ P(D < 10) = \binom{500}{k} (0.04)^k (0.96)^{500-k} \text{ for } k = 0, 1, 2, \text{ ... }, 9 \]
05

Approximate with the normal distribution (if necessary)

Due to the large sample size, use the normal approximation to the binomial distribution: \[ D \thicksim N(\text{mean} = 20, \text{standard deviation} = \text{sqrt}(500 \times 0.04 \times 0.96)) \] \[ \text{standard deviation} = \text{sqrt}(19.2) \thicksim 4.38 \] Using the continuity correction, calculate: \[ P(D < 9.5) = P\bigg(Z < \frac{9.5 - 20}{4.38}\bigg) = P(Z < -2.40) \] \ This evaluates to approximately 0.0082.
06

Evaluate the policy

The computed probability of accepting the shipment is very low (around 0.82%). Therefore, the acceptance policy is very strict since it results in rejecting most shipments, even those that are close to the acceptable defect rate.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

binomial distribution
In quality control, the binomial distribution is often used to model the number of defective items in a sample. The main idea is that each item in the sample can only be in one of two states: defective or not defective.
For a scenario like the one given in the exercise, where a random sample of 500 transistors is taken from a shipment, the binomial distribution can help us compute the likelihood of finding a certain number of defective transistors.
Here, the binomial distribution is defined by two parameters: the sample size ( = 500) and the probability of a single item being defective (p = 0.04).
The formula to calculate the probability of finding exactly k defective transistors in our sample is:
\[ P(D = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \] where:
  • \(\binom{n}{k}\) is the binomial coefficient representing the number of ways to choose k defective items from n samples.
  • p^k is the probability of k defective items occurring.
  • (1-p)^{n-k} is the probability of the remaining items being non-defective.
In our specific case, we need to compute the probability for all values of k from 0 to 9 (as shipments are rejected if they contain 10 or more defective transistors).
quality control
Quality control is vital in manufacturing settings to ensure that products meet certain standards and specifications. Acceptance sampling is a technique used in quality control to decide whether to accept or reject a batch of products based on a sample. The goal is to identify whether the batch is of acceptable quality without inspecting every item.
In our problem, a quality control engineer takes a random sample of 500 transistors out of a shipment of 50,000. The engineer will reject the entire shipment if 10 or more transistors in the sample are defective.
The idea is to balance the risk of accepting bad quality goods (producers' risk) against the cost of inspecting every item or the risk of unnecessarily rejecting good quality goods (consumers' risk). The probability calculations using binomial and normal distribution help us assess this balance. If the probability of accepting a shipment with a high defect rate is very low, the acceptance policy might be deemed too strict.
This can lead to higher costs due to the unnecessary rejection of batches that meet acceptable quality standards. Conversely, if the threshold is set too high, poor quality goods may be accepted, leading to downstream problems. Finding a suitable policy goes a long way in maintaining both production efficiency and product quality.
normal approximation
In many real-world applications, especially when dealing with large sample sizes, computing probabilities directly from the binomial distribution can be complex. That's where the normal approximation to the binomial distribution comes in handy.
The normal approximation makes it easier to compute probabilities by approximating the binomial distribution with a normal distribution. This method is particularly useful when both np and n(1-p) are greater than 5.
In our problem:
  • np = 500 * 0.04 = 20
  • n(1-p) = 500 * 0.96 = 480
Since both these values are comfortably greater than 5, the normal approximation is applicable. The mean (\text{mean} = np) and standard deviation (\text{std} = \text{sqrt}(np(1-p))) of the binomial distribution can be used to define the normal distribution: \[ D \thicksim N(20, \text{sqrt}(19.2)) \] The continuity correction factor (0.5) is used because a continuous distribution is being used to approximate a discrete distribution. So, calculating: \[ P(D < 9.5) = P\bigg(Z < \frac{9.5 - 20}{4.38}\bigg) \] converts our problem to finding a standard normal value, which helps determine the probability.The result here indicates the shipment acceptance probability is very low (about 0.82%). Therefore, the policy primarily results in rejecting shipments even if the actual defect rate isn't too far from acceptable, which might need reassessment to avoid excessive rejections.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Reincarnation Suppose \(21 \%\) of all American teens (age 13-17 years) believe in reincarnation. (a) Bob and Alicia both obtain a random sample of 100 American teens and ask each participant to disclose whether they believe in reincarnation or not. Is "belief in reincarnation" qualitative or quantitative? Explain. (b) Explain why Bob's sample of 100 randomly selected American teens might result in 18 who believe in reincarnation, while Alicia's independent sample of 100 randomly selected American teens might result in 22 who believe in reincarnation. (c) Why is it important to randomly select American teens to estimate the population proportion who believe in reincarnation? (d) In a survey of 100 American teens, how many would you expect to believe in reincarnation? (e) Below is the histogram of the sample proportion of 1000 different surveys in which \(n=20\) American teens were asked to disclose whether they believed in reincarnation. Explain why the normal model should not be used to describe the distribution of the sample proportion. (f) What minimum sample size would you require in order for the distribution of the sample proportion to be modeled by the normal distribution?

Determine \(\mu_{\bar{x}}\) and \(\sigma_{\bar{x}}\) from the given parameters of the population and the sample size. \(\mu=80, \sigma=14, n=49\)

Suppose Jack and Diane are each attempting to use simulation to describe the sampling distribution from a population that is skewed left with mean 50 and standard deviation \(10 .\) Jack obtains 1000 random samples of size \(n=3\) from the population, finds the mean of the 1000 samples, draws a histogram of the means, finds the mean of the means, and determines the standard deviation of the means. Diane does the same simulation, but obtains 1000 random samples of size \(n=30\) from the population. (a) Describe the shape you expect for Jack's distribution of sample means. Describe the shape you expect for Diane's distribution of sample means. (b) What do you expect the mean of Jack's distribution to be? What do you expect the mean of Diane's distribution to be? (c) What do you expect the standard deviation of Jack's distribution to be? What do you expect the standard deviation of Diane's distribution to be?

True or False: The mean of the sampling distribution of \(\hat{p}\) is \(p\).

A bull market is defined as a market condition in which the price of a security rises for an extended period of time. A bull market in the stock market is often defined as a condition in which a market rises by \(20 \%\) or more without a \(20 \%\) decline. The data on the next page represent the number of months and percentage change in the \(\mathrm{S} \& \mathrm{P} 500\) (a group of 500 stocks) during the 25 bull markets dating back to 1929 (the year of the famous market crash). (a) Treating the length of the bull market as the explanatory variable, draw a scatter diagram of the data. (b) Determine the linear correlation coefficient between months and percent change. (c) Does a linear relation exist between duration of the bull market and market performance? (d) Find the least-squares regression line treating length of the bull market as the explanatory variable. (e) Interpret the slope. (f) Did the bull market that lasted 50.4 months have a percent change above or below what would be expected? Explain. (g) Draw a residual plot. Any outliers? (h) Would you consider the bull market from December 4,1987 through March 24,2000 , which lasted 149.8 months and saw a \(582.15 \%\) rise in stock prices, influential? Explain. Note: After this bull market, the market entered a bear market that lasted 18.2 months and saw the stock market decline \(37 \% .\) This era is often referred to as the "Tech Bubble." $$ \begin{array}{cc|cc} \begin{array}{l} \text { Bull } \\ \text { Months } \end{array} & \begin{array}{l} \text { Percent } \\ \text { Change } \end{array} & \begin{array}{l} \text { Bull } \\ \text { Months } \end{array} & \begin{array}{l} \text { Percent } \\ \text { Change } \end{array} \\ \hline 4.9 & 46.77 & 86.9 & 267.08 \\ \hline 2.3 & 25.83 & 50.4 & 86.35 \\ \hline 0.8 & 25.82 & 44.1 & 79.78 \\ \hline 1.2 & 30.61 & 26.1 & 48.05 \\ \hline 2.3 & 111.59 & 32.0 & 73.53 \\ \hline 4.7 & 120.61 & 74.9 & 125.63 \\ \hline 3.7 & 37.28 & 61.3 & 228.81 \\ \hline 24.2 & 131.64 & 149.8 & 582.15 \\ \hline 7.4 & 62.24 & 3.5 & 21.40 \\ \hline 6.6 & 26.78 & 60.9 & 101.50 \\ \hline 5.0 & 20.91 & 1.6 & 24.22 \\ \hline 49.7 & 157.70 & 48.6 & 127.85 \\ \hline 13.1 & 23.89 & & \\ \hline \end{array} $$

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