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Question: Estimating repair and replacement costs of water pipes. Refer to the IHS Journal of Hydraulic Engineering (September, 2012) study of the repair and replacement of water pipes, Exercise 11.21 (p. 655). Recall that a team of civil engineers used regression analysis to model y = the ratio of repair to replacement cost of commercial pipe as a function of x = the diameter (in millimeters) of the pipe. Data for a sample of 13 different pipe sizes are reproduced in the accompanying table. In Exercise 11.21, you fit a straight-line model to the data. Now consider the quadratic model,E(y)=0+1x+2x2. A Minitab printout of the analysis follows (next column).

  1. Give the least squares prediction equation relating ratio of repair to replacement cost (y) to pipe diameter (x).
  2. Conduct a global F-test for the model using=0.01. What do you conclude about overall model adequacy?
  3. Evaluate the adjusted coefficient of determination,Ra2, for the model.
  4. Give the null and alternative hypotheses for testing if the rate of increase of ratio (y) with diameter (x) is slower for larger pipe sizes.
  5. Carry out the test, part d, using =0.01.
  6. Locate, on the printout, a 95% prediction interval for the ratio of repair to replacement cost for a pipe with a diameter of 240 millimeters. Interpret the result.

Short Answer

Expert verified

Answers:

  1. Therefore, the least squares prediction equation isy^=6.265955+0.007914x+0.00000425x2
  2. At 99% significance level, it can be concluded that120
  3. The value ofRa2in the excel output is 0.972166. This means that around 97% of the variation in the variables is explained by the model. The higher the value, the better the model is for fitting to the data. 97% indicates the model is an ideal fit for the data.
  4. The null hypothesis is whether 2=0while the alternate checks if the value of2<0 .
  5. Mathematically,H0:2=0 ,while Ha:2<0.
  6. At 99% confidence level,2=0.This means that the parabola doesn鈥檛 have a curvature and it essentially is a straight line.
  7. The 95% prediction interval for the ratio of repair to replacement cost for a pipe with a diameter of 250 mm is given as (7.59472, 8.36237). This means that the ratio of repair to replacement can be between 7.59472 and 8.36237 for a given value of the diameter of the pipe (here 240 mm)

Step by step solution

01

Least Squares prediction equation

Ratio of repair to replacement cost (y)

Pipe diameter (x)

x2

6.58

80

6400

6.97

100

10000

7.39

125

15625

7.61

150

22500

7.78

200

40000

7.92

250

62500

8.2

300

90000

8.42

350

122500

8.6

400

160000

8.97

450

202500

9.31

500

250000

9.47

600

360000

9.72

700

490000

Excel summary output

SUMMARY OUTPUT

















Regression Statistics








Multiple R

0.988335








R Square

0.976805








Adjusted R Square

0.972166








Standard Error

0.162211








Observations

13

















ANOVA









df

SS

MS

F

Significance F




Regression

2

11.08098

5.540491

210.5646

6.71E-09




Residual

10

0.263125

0.026313






Total

12

11.34411













Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept

6.265955

0.155438

40.31149

2.11E-12

5.919617

6.612294

5.919617

6.612294

Pipe diameter (x)

0.007914

0.000997

7.934744

1.26E-05

0.005692

0.010137

0.005692

0.010137

x2

-4.3E-06

1.32E-06

-3.22867

0.009041

-7.2E-06

-1.3E-06

-7.2E-06

-1.3E-06

Therefore, the least-squares prediction equation isy^=6.265955+0.007914x+0.00000425x2

02

Overall goodness of fit

H0:1=2=0

Ha:At least one of the parameters1 or2 is non zero

Here, F test statistic =SSEn-k+1=210.5646.Here, p-value = 6.71E-09

H0is rejected if p-value < . For=0.01 , Since p-value <0.01

Sufficient evidence to rejectH0 at 99% confidence interval.

Hence, 120

03

Interpretation of Ra2

The value of Ra2in the excel output is 0.972166. This means that around 97% of the variation in the variables is explained by the model. The higher the value, the better the model is for fitting to the data. 97% indicates the model is an ideal fit for the data.

04

Null and alternate hypothesis

To test whether the rate of increase of ratio (y) with a diameter (x) is slower for larger diameter pipe sizes, we want to check whether the curvature of the parabola is the negative meaning if the parabola is downward sloping.

The null hypothesis is whether2=0 while the alternate checks if the value of2<0 .

Mathematically, H0:2=0whileHa:2<0 .

05

Significance of β2

H0:2=0

Ha:2<0

Here, t-test statistic=2^s2=-0.0000040.000001=-4

Value oft0.01,12 is 2.681

H0is rejected if t statistic > t0.01,12. For=0.01 , since t <t0.01,12

Not sufficient evidence to reject H0at a 99% confidence interval.

Thus,2=0.

This means that the parabola doesn鈥檛 have a curvature and it essentially is a straight line.

06

Prediction value

The 95% prediction interval for the ratio of repair to replacement cost for a pipe with a diameter of 250 mm is given as (7.59472, 8.36237). This means that the ratio of repair to replacement can be between 7.59472 and 8.36237 for a given value of the diameter of the pipe (here 240 mm).

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