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Forecasting movie revenues with Twitter. Refer to the IEEE International Conference on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology (2010) study on using the volume of chatter on Twitter.com to forecast movie box office revenue, Exercise 12.10 (p. 723). The researchers modelled a movie’s opening weekend box office revenue (y) as a function of tweet rate (x1 ) and ratio of positive to negative tweets (x2) using a first-order model.

a) Write the equation of an interaction model for E(y) as a function of x1 and x2 .

b) In terms of theβ in the model, part a, what is the change in revenue (y) for every 1-tweet increase in the tweet rate (x1 ) , holding PN-ratio (x2)constant at a value of 2.5?

c) In terms of the in the model, part a, what is the change in revenue (y) for every 1-tweet increase in the tweet rate (x1 ) , holding PN-ratio (x2)constant at a value of 5.0?

d) In terms of theβ in the model, part a, what is the change in revenue (y) for every 1-unit increase in the PN-ratio (x2) , holding tweet rate (x1 )constant at a value of 100?

e) Give the null hypothesis for testing whether tweet rate (x1 ) and PN-ratio (x2) interact to affect revenue (y).

Short Answer

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a) The equation would be Ey=β0+β1x1+β2x2+β3x1x2+ε.

b) The equation becomes, Ey=β0+2.5β2+β1+2.5β3x1+ε. Hence, revenue (y) changes by β1+2.5β3 for every 1-unit increase in the tweet rate (x1) holding PN-ratio (x2) constant.

c)The equation becomes,Ey=β0+5β2+β1+5β3x1+ε . Hence, revenue (y) changes by localid="1651172612533" β2+100β3for every 1-unit increase in the tweet rate (x1) holding PN-ratio (x2) constant.

d) The equation becomes, Ey=β0+100β1+β2+100β3x2+ε. Hence, revenue (y) changes by β2+100β3 for every 1-unit increase in PN-ratio (x2) holding the tweet rate (x1 ) constant.

e) The null hypothesis and alternate hypothesis will be H0:β3=0 and Ha:β3≠0

Step by step solution

01

Equation for the interaction model

The equation of an interaction model for E(y) as a function of x1 and x2 would have an additional variable (x1x2) to represent the interaction amongst the variable.

Therefore, the equation would be E(y)=β0+β1x1+β2x2+β3x1x2+ε .

02

Change in y for change in  x1

The interaction model equation is Ey=β0+β1x1+β2x2+β3x1x2+ε.

Here, holding x2 value constant at 2.5, the model becomes

Ey=β0+β1x1+β22.5+β3x12.5+ε

Ey=β0+2.5β2+β1+2.5β3x1+ε

The equation becomesE(y)=(β0+2.5β2)+(β1+2.5β3)x1+ε Hence, revenue (y) changes by localid="1651173294032" (β1+2.5β3) for every 1-unit increase in the tweet rate (x1) holding PN-ratio (x2) constant.

03

Convert in y for convert in x1 

The interaction model equation is Ey=β0+β1x1+β2x2+β3x1x2+ε.

Here, holding x2 value constant at 5, the model becomes

Ey=β0+β1x1+β25+β3x15+ε

Ey=β0+5β2+β1+5β3x1+ε

The equation becomes,localid="1651173183555" E(y)=(β0+5β2)+(β1+5β3)x1+ε. Hence, revenue (y) changes bylocalid="1651173324259" β2+100β3 for every 1-unit increase in the tweet rate (x1) holding PN-ratio (x2) constant.

04

Switch in y for the switch in x2 

The interaction model equation is Ey=β0+β1x1+β2x2+β3x1x2+ε.

Here, holding x1 value constant at 100, the model becomes

Ey=β0+β1100+β2x2+β3100x2+ε

Ey=β0+100β1+β2+100β3x2+ε

The equation becomes, role="math" localid="1651173154939" E(y)=(β0+100β1)+(β2+100β3)x2+ε. Hence, revenue (y) changes by β2+100β3 for every 1-unit increase in PN-ratio x2 holding the tweet rate x1 constant.

05

Significance of  β3

To test whether x1 and x2 variables interact in the model, the presence of the model parameter β3 is tested.

Hence the null hypothesis would be the absence of the model parameter β3and the alternate hypothesis would be the presence of β3

Mathematically, H0:β3=0;Ha:β3≠0

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Role of retailer interest on shopping behavior. Retail interest is defined by marketers as the level of interest a consumer has in a given retail store. Marketing professors investigated the role of retailer interest in consumers’ shopping behavior (Journal of Retailing, Summer 2006). Using survey data collected for n = 375 consumers, the professors developed an interaction model for y = willingness of the consumer to shop at a retailer’s store in the future (called repatronage intentions) as a function of = consumer satisfaction and = retailer interest. The regression results are shown below.

(a) Is the overall model statistically useful for predicting y? Test using a=0.05

(b )Conduct a test for interaction at a= 0.05.

(c) Use the estimates to sketch the estimated relationship between repatronage intentions (y) and satisfaction when retailer interest is x2=1 (a low value).

(d)Repeat part c when retailer interest is x2= 7(a high value).

(e) Sketch the two lines, parts c and d, on the same graph to illustrate the nature of the interaction.

Consider the following data that fit the quadratic modelE(y)=β0+β1x+β2x2:

a. Construct a scatterplot for this data. Give the prediction equation and calculate R2based on the model above.

b. Interpret the value ofR2.

c. Justify whether the overall model is significant at the 1% significance level if the data result into a p-value of 0.000514.

Minitab was used to fit the complete second-order modeE(y)=β0+β1x1+β2x2+β3x1x2+β4x12+β5x22to n = 39 data points. The printout is shown on the next page.

a. Is there sufficient evidence to indicate that at least one of the parameters—β1,β2,β3,β4, andβ1,β2,β3,β4—is nonzero? Test usingα=0.05.

b. TestH0:β4=0againstHa:β4≠0. Useα=0.01.

c. TestH0:β5=0againstHa:β5≠0. Useα=0.01.

d. Use graphs to explain the consequences of the tests in parts b and c.

Question: Reality TV and cosmetic surgery. Refer to the Body Image: An International Journal of Research (March 2010) study of the impact of reality TV shows on a college student’s decision to undergo cosmetic surgery, Exercise 12.43 (p. 739). The data saved in the file were used to fit the interaction model, E(Y)=β0+β1x1+β2x4+β3x1x4, where y = desire to have cosmetic surgery (25-point scale),x1= {1 if male, 0 if female}, and x4= impression of reality TV (7-point scale). From the SPSS printout (p. 739), the estimated equation is:y^=11.78-1.97x1+0.58x4-0.55x1x4

a. Give an estimate of the change in desire (y) for every 1-point increase in impression of reality TV show (x4) for female students.

b. Repeat part a for male students.

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