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A process yields \(10 \%\) defective items. If 100 items are randomly selected from the process, what is the probability that the number of defectives (a) exceeds \(13 ?\) (b) is less than \(8 ?\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that the number of defective items exceeds 13 and is less than 8 can be calculated using binomial distribution. Exact answer depends on the calculations in steps 3 and 4, which are computed using a calculator or statistical software.

Step by step solution

01

Key values identification

In this binomial distribution exercise, we have a total number of trials (n) = 100, a probability of success (p) = 10% and we're asked to find two sets of probabilities: more than 13 defective items (k > 13) and less than 8 defective items (k < 8).
02

Using the Binomial Probability Formula

The binomial probability formula describes the probability of having exactly k successes in n independent Bernoulli trials. The formula is: \(P(K=k) = C(n, k) \times (p)^k \times (1-p)^{n-k}\)
03

Calculating for k > 13

When calculating for \(k > 13\), we need to find the cumulative of the probabilities from k = 0 to k = 13 and subtract from 1 (since the total probability is 1). So probability \(P(K>13) = 1 - \Sigma_{k=0}^{13} P(K=k)\).
04

Calculating for k < 8

When calculating for \(k < 8\), we need to find the cumulative of the probabilities from k = 0 to k = 7, \(P(K<8) = \Sigma_{k=0}^{7} P(K=k)\).
05

Calculation details

To calculate \(1 - \Sigma_{k=0}^{13} P(K=k)\) and \( \Sigma_{k=0}^{7} P(K=k)\), we can use a scientific calculator or statistical software by entering the respective \(n, p, k\) values into binomial distribution calculator.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Probability Formula
The Binomial Probability Formula is essential when dealing with binomial distributions. It helps us find the probability of a certain number of successes in a series of independent trials. Each trial has the same probability of success. The formula itself is given by: \[ P(K=k) = C(n, k) \times p^k \times (1-p)^{n-k} \]Here, \(C(n, k)\) is the number of combinations of \(n\) trials taken \(k\) at a time. The term \(p^k\) represents the probability of getting \(k\) successes, and \((1-p)^{n-k}\) is the probability of the remaining \(n-k\) trials being failures. Using this formula requires identifying key elements:
  • \(n\): Total number of trials
  • \(k\): Number of successful trials
  • \(p\): Probability of success on a single trial
With these values, one can compute the probability of observing exactly \(k\) successes in \(n\) trials.
Cumulative Probability
Cumulative Probability is a crucial concept when you need to find the probability of a range of outcomes in a binomial distribution. It sums up individual probabilities for a series of outcomes. For example, to find the probability of having more than 13 defective items, you calculate all possible outcomes from 0 to 13 and subtract this from 1.The formula for this is:\[ P(K > k) = 1 - \Sigma_{i=0}^{k} P(K=i) \]Similarly, to find the cumulative probability for less than 8 defective items, you directly add the probabilities for each outcome from 0 to 7:\[ P(K < 8) = \Sigma_{i=0}^{7} P(K=i) \]These calculations help gauge how likely it is to fall within certain bounds, offering insight into data behavior or predictive scenarios.
Defective Items Analysis
Defective Items Analysis is a practical application of binomial probability. Imagine a production line where 10% of items are defective. If you randomly select 100 items, what's the probability of seeing more than 13 defective ones? Or less than 8? By understanding binomial distribution, you can assess such quality control scenarios. It helps businesses decide if immediate action is needed based on defect rates. For example:
  • If more than 13 defective items are found in the sample, this might indicate a problem that needs addressing.
  • If less than 8 defective items are produced, it might reflect an acceptable defect rate - providing assurance of process reliability.
Regular analysis of defective items using probability formulas helps in maintaining quality assurance and optimizing production processes.
Binomial Trials
In the context of binomial distribution, Binomial Trials are experiments or processes that meet certain conditions. Each trial must be independent, and there are only two outcomes: success or failure. In our example with defective items, each item inspected constitutes a single trial with success represented as finding a defective item.Binomial Trials require specific criteria:
  • The number of trials \(n\) is fixed.
  • Each trial must be independent of the others.
  • The probability of success \(p\) remains constant across all trials.
This makes binomial distribution very powerful for scenarios where these conditions are met. It assists in modeling real-world phenomena where each outcome is binary and reflects on the larger whole through sampling.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A lawyer commutes daily from his suburban home to his midtown office. The average time for a one-way trip is 24 minutes, with a standard deviation of 3.8 minutes. Assume the distribution of trip times to be normally distributed. (a) What is the probability that a trip will take at least \(1 / 2\) hour? (b) If the office opens at 9: 00 A.M. and he leaves his house at 8: 45 A.M. daily, what percentage of the time is he late for work? (c) If he leaves the house at 8: 35 A.M. and coffee is served at the office from 8:50 A.M. until 9:00 A.M., what is the probability that he misses coffee? (d) Find the length of time above which we find the slowest \(15 \%\) of the trips. (e) Find the probability that 2 of the next 3 trips will take at least \(1 / 2\) hour.

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