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Suppose that the time, in hours, taken to repair a heat pump is a random variable \(X\) having a gamma distribution with parameters \(\alpha=2\) and \(3=1 / 2\). What is the probability that the next service call will require (a) at most 1 hour to repair the heat pump? (b) at least 2 hours to repair the heat pump?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The exact values of these probabilities depend on the evaluation of the integrals given in Step 3 and Step 4.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Parameters

The problem provides the parameters of the gamma distribution. Here, \(\alpha = 2\) and \(\beta = 2\), from \(3 = 1/ \beta\).
02

Identify the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the Gamma Distribution

The PDF of a gamma distribution is given by: \(f(x) = \frac{\beta^\alpha x^{\alpha - 1} e^{-\beta x}}{\Gamma(\alpha)}\) where \(x > 0\), \(\alpha > 0\), \(\beta > 0\) and \(\Gamma(\alpha)\) is the gamma function evaluated at \(\alpha\).
03

Calculate the Probability for Part (a)

We need to calculate the probability of a service call requiring at most 1 hour to repair the heat pump. In terms of the gamma distribution, this means integrating the PDF from \(0\) to \(1\), or \(P(X\leq1) = \int_0^1 f(x) dx\).
04

Calculate the Probability for Part (b)

We need to calculate the probability of a service call requiring at least 2 hours to repair the heat pump. Integrate the PDF from \(2\) to \(\infty\), \(P(X\geq2)=\int_2^\infty f(x) dx\).
05

Evaluating the integrals

These integrals might be difficult to calculate by hand. Use Gamma function properties, statistical software, or calculators capable of handling gamma distributions to solve these integrals.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Random Variable
In statistics and probability theory, a random variable is a variable that can take on different values, each with an associated probability. It serves as a foundational concept in modeling uncertainty and various random processes. For instance, consider a scenario where a technician works on repairing heat pumps. The time taken for these repairs can vary from one job to another, influenced by factors such as the complexity of the issue, availability of parts, and the technician's expertise.

Mathematically, a random variable is denoted by a capital letter, such as \(X\), and can be either discrete or continuous. In our exercise, the time taken to repair a heat pump is a continuous random variable, because it can take on any value within a range, measured in hours. Continuous random variables are often described using probability density functions, which provide the probabilities of the variable falling within specific ranges.
Probability Density Function (PDF)
The Probability Density Function (PDF) of a continuous random variable is a function that describes the relative likelihood for this random variable to take on a given value. In simpler terms, it's a curve that depicts how the values of the variable are distributed over the possible values it can assume. For a continuous variable, the probability of it taking on an exact value is technically zero; instead, we talk about the probability of it falling within an interval.

The area under the PDF curve between two points corresponds to the probability of the random variable falling within that interval. In our exercise, the PDF for the gamma distribution is specific and is defined by certain parameters which influence the shape and scale of the distribution.
Gamma Function
The gamma function is a special function that extends the factorial function to continuous values. It's denoted by \(\Gamma(n)\) and is defined as \(\Gamma(n) = (n-1)!\) for natural numbers. However, for non-integer values, it's defined by an integral that extends from 0 to infinity.

This function is intimately related to the gamma distribution; it is used in the normalization constant of the gamma PDF to ensure that the area under the curve is equal to 1, which is a requirement for all probability distributions. Understanding the gamma function is important for working with gamma distributions, as it arises in the formulas you need to calculate probabilities, like those in our heat pump repair time problem.
Statistical Distributions
Statistical distributions are mathematical functions that describe all the possible values and likelihoods that a random variable can take within a given range. Distributions come in different shapes and sizes, each with its own set of parameters that describe its unique characteristics. Common distributions include the normal distribution, binomial distribution, and in our case, the gamma distribution.

Each distribution provides a model for making sense of data that can be observed in the real world. For example, the gamma distribution is often used to model waiting times and is characterized by its shape and scale parameters. In our exercise, the alpha parameter (also known as the shape parameter) and the beta parameter (the rate or inverse of the scale parameter) dictate the form of the gamma distribution's probability density function. By understanding the properties of the gamma distribution and its parameters, we can make powerful inferences and predictions about the time required for various service calls.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Consider Exercise 6.50 on page 206. The beta distribution has considerable application in reliability problems in which the basic random variable is a proportion in the practical scenario illustrated in the example. In that regard, consider Review Exercise 3.75 on page \(105 .\) Impurities in the batch of product of a chemical process reflect a serious problem. It is known that the proportion of impurities \(Y\) in a batch has the density function \(f i y)=\left\\{\begin{array}{ll}10(1-y)^{9}, & 0 \leq y \leq 1 \\ 0, & \text { elsewhere }\end{array}\right.\) (a) Verify that the above is a valid density function. (b) What is the probability that a batch is considered not acceptable (i.e., \(Y>0.6\) )? (c) What are the parameters \(\alpha\) and 0 of the beta dis. tribution illustrated here? (d) The mean of the beta distribution is \(\frac{\alpha}{\alpha+\beta}\). What is the mean proportion of impurities in the batch? (e) The variance of a beta distributed random variable is

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