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An electrical fim manufactures light bulbs that have a lifetime that is approximately normally distributed with a mean of 800 hours and a standard deviation of 40 hours. Test the hypothesis that \(p=800\) hours against the alternative \(p \neq 800\) hours if a random sample of 30 bulbs has an average life of 788 hours. Use a P-value in your answers.

Short Answer

Expert verified
To evaluate whether the average lifetime of the light bulbs is 800 hours, as the manufacturer claims, a hypothesis test is run using a sample of 30 bulbs that have an average lifetime of 788 hours. After calculating the test statistic (z-score), the corresponding p-value is determined. If the p-value is less than the pre-determined significance level (e.g., 0.05), the null hypothesis is rejected. This means the evidence suggests that the mean lifetime of the light bulbs is different from 800 hours.

Step by step solution

01

Set up the Hypotheses

Set up the null hypothesis \(H_0: p = 800\) and the alternative hypothesis \(H_1: p \neq 800\)
02

Standard Error

Calculate the standard error (SE) of the sample mean. The formula for the standard error when the standard deviation is known is \(\sigma/\sqrt{n}\), where \(\sigma = 40\) (standard deviation) and \(n = 30\) (sample size). So, SE = \(40/\sqrt{30}\).
03

Test Statistic

The test statistic for the hypothesis test is a z-score (z), which is calculated as follows: \(z = (X - p) / SE\), where \(X=788\) is the sample mean and \(p=800\) is the hypothesized population mean. Substitute the known values into the equation to calculate the z-score.
04

P-value

The P-value is the probability of obtaining a sample as extreme as the one you tested, assuming that the null hypothesis is true. Using a Z-table or software, find the p-value associated with your Z-score. This two-tailed test, so the p-value will be the two-tail probability for the z-score.
05

Conclusion

If the P-value is less than the chosen significance level, reject the null hypothesis. This means the sample provides sufficient evidence to conclude that the mean lifetime of the light bulbs is not 800 hours. If the P-value is greater, do not reject the null hypothesis.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Distribution
Understanding the normal distribution is crucial when performing hypothesis testing. It's a statistical function that represents the distribution of many natural phenomena. Imagine a bell curve; this is what a normal distribution looks like. Most of the data points cluster around a central point, known as the mean, and the probability of observing values declines as you move away from the center.

For instance, in our exercise focusing on light bulbs, the lifetimes are described as approximately normally distributed around a mean of 800 hours. This means most light bulbs last close to 800 hours, with fewer bulbs failing much earlier or lasting significantly longer. When we're dealing with sample means and large enough sample sizes, the Central Limit Theorem tells us that these means tend to form a normal distribution, even if the underlying data does not.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) measures the amount of variability or dispersion in a sample mean from the true population mean. In more simple terms, it's an estimate of how far the sample mean is likely to be from the population mean if we were to take many different samples.

Our exercise provides the formula for SE as \( \sigma/\sqrt{n} \), where \( \sigma \) is the population standard deviation, and \( n \) is the sample size. With the provided values, we can calculate the SE to assess how concentrated or spread out our sample means are around the true mean. A lower SE indicates that our sample mean is likely more accurate to the population mean.
Z-score
The z-score is a fundamental concept in understanding how we perform hypothesis testing. It tells us how many standard errors a data point (say, a sample mean) is from the hypothesized population mean under the null hypothesis. It's the core of how we decide whether to accept or reject our null hypothesis.

In the exercise, you calculate the z-score by subtracting the hypothesized mean (800 hours) from the sample mean (788 hours), then divide by the standard error. This calculation shows if our sample mean is simply an expected variation or if it’s unusually different, which might suggest that our initial assumption (the null hypothesis) about the population's mean is incorrect.
P-value
The p-value is possibly the most significant number that comes out of the hypothesis testing process. It tells us the probability of observing a sample statistic as extreme as the test statistic, assuming that the null hypothesis is true. If this value is low, it suggests that such an extreme observed outcome is unlikely under the null hypothesis.

In this case, you would use either a Z-table or statistical software to find the p-value associated with your test statistic. Since we're conducting a two-tailed test (because the alternative hypothesis states that \(p \) could be less than or greater than 800), you'll look up the two-tailed probability for your z-score. If the p-value is less than your chosen significance level (common choices are 0.05 or 0.01), you would reject the null hypothesis, concluding that the mean life of the light bulbs does indeed differ from 800 hours.

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