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Suppose that blood chloride concentration (mmol/L) has a normal distribution with mean 104 and standard deviation 5 (information in the article "'Mathematical Model of Chloride Concentration in Human Blood," J. of Med. Engr: and Tech., 2006: 25-30, including a normal probability plot as described in Section 4.6, supports this assumption). a. What is the probability that chloride concentration equals 105 ? Is less than 105? Is at most 105 ? b. What is the probability that chloride concentration differs from the mean by more than 1 standard deviation? Does this probability depend on the values of \(\mu\) and \(\sigma\) ? c. How would you characterize the most extreme .1\% of chloride concentration values?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a: P(X=105) = 0, P(X<105) = 0.5793, P(X<=105) = 0.5793; b: 0.3174; no; c: values < 87.55 or > 120.45.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Normal Distribution

The blood chloride concentration follows a normal distribution with a mean \( \mu = 104 \) and a standard deviation \( \sigma = 5 \). We need to find the probabilities for different conditions based on this distribution definition.
02

Probability of Exact Value 105

For a continuous probability distribution, the probability of any exact value, such as 105, is 0. Therefore, the probability that the chloride concentration equals 105 is 0.
03

Probability Less Than 105

To find the probability that the chloride concentration is less than 105, calculate the z-score: \[ z = \frac{105 - 104}{5} = \frac{1}{5} = 0.2 \]Look up this z-score in the standard normal distribution table, which gives approximately 0.5793. So, the probability is 0.5793.
04

Probability At Most 105

The probability that the concentration is at most 105 is the same as less than 105 for a continuous distribution. Therefore, it is also 0.5793.
05

Probability Differs by More Than 1 Standard Deviation

Calculate the z-scores for 1 standard deviation away from the mean: \[ z1 = \frac{109 - 104}{5} = 1 \]\[ z2 = \frac{99 - 104}{5} = -1 \]Use the z-table to find that the probability between these z-scores is approximately 0.6826. Thus, the probability of differing by more than 1 standard deviation is:\[ 1 - 0.6826 = 0.3174 \]
06

Independence from \( \mu \) and \( \sigma \)

To find probabilities in a normal distribution, the exact values of \( \mu \) and \( \sigma \) don't affect the result for standardized probabilities like 'differing by one standard deviation,' due to standardization. So, this probability doesn’t depend on \( \mu \) and \( \sigma \).
07

Characterizing Extreme .1% Values

The most extreme 0.1% of values lie in the tails of the distribution. To find these, determine the percentiles corresponding to the top and bottom 0.05% of the distribution using the z-table. These tails correspond to z-scores around \(-3.2905\) and \(3.2905\). The values can be converted back to the original scale:\[ x_{low} = 104 + (-3.2905)(5) \approx 87.55 \]\[ x_{high} = 104 + 3.2905(5) \approx 120.45 \]These are the characteristics of the extreme 0.1% values.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Calculations
When dealing with normal distributions, probability calculations help us determine the likelihood of a certain event within the distribution. A normal distribution is characterized by its bell-shaped curve and is defined by the parameters: mean (\( \mu \)) and standard deviation (\( \sigma \)).
In continuous distributions, the probability of a single exact point is always 0 since there are infinitely many points. Instead, we calculate probabilities over intervals. For example, the probability that a value is less than a certain point is found by calculating the area under the curve to the left of that point. This requires the use of a standardized method like the z-score, which we will cover later.
By understanding these basics of probability, you can interpret and predict outcomes in real-life scenarios involving normally distributed data.
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation is a measure of how spread out the values are in a dataset. In the context of normal distribution, it shows how much variation exists from the average or mean value. A smaller standard deviation indicates that the values tend to be close to the mean, while a larger one suggests they are spread over a wider range.
For any normal distribution, approximately
  • 68% of data falls within plus or minus one standard deviation from the mean,
  • 95% within two standard deviations,
  • 99.7% within three standard deviations.
This is known as the empirical rule or 68-95-99.7 rule.
In our exercise, with a standard deviation of 5, we can predict a significant amount of chloride concentration values will fall between 99 and 109 mmol/L.
Z-score
The z-score is a way of determining how many standard deviations away a particular value is from the mean of a distribution. It's a crucial concept in normal distribution as it allows for the comparison and calculation of probabilities.
The formula for calculating the z-score is:
\[ z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma} \]
Where:
  • \( x \) is the given data point,
  • \( \mu \) is the mean,
  • \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation.
Using a z-score table, or standard normal distribution table, we can find the probability of a value and compare it to other values within a distribution.
In our example, the z-score for a chloride concentration of 105 is 0.2, meaning it is 0.2 standard deviations above the mean, allowing us to compute the probability of observing such a value.
Percentiles
Percentiles give us valuable information about the relative standing of a value within the dataset. A percentile is a value below which a given percentage of observations in a group fall. They are especially useful in measuring the extreme values in a distribution.
For instance, the 50th percentile, or median, is the middle value of a dataset. In normal distribution, percentiles can help determine the cut-off for extreme events, such as the most extreme 0.1% of values.
To determine these percentile values in our problem, we employ z-scores that correspond to percentiles from the z-table. Such as in the exercise, z-scores of -3.2905 and 3.2905 represent the lower and upper extremes of 0.1% of data respectively.
These transformations give us insights into where the most unusual concentrations lie, crucial for understanding the distribution's tails and outliers.

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