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The article "Computer Assisted Net Weight Control" (Quality Progress, 1983: 22–25) suggests a normal distribution with mean \(137.2 \mathrm{oz}\) and standard deviation \(1.6 \mathrm{oz}\) for the actual contents of jars of a certain type. The stated contents was \(135 \mathrm{oz}\). a. What is the probability that a single jar contains more than the stated contents? b. Among ten randomly selected jars, what is the probability that at least eight contain more than the stated contents? c. Assuming that the mean remains at 137.2, to what value would the standard deviation have to be changed so that \(95 \%\) of all jars contain more than the stated contents?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. Probability is 0.915. b. Probability is approximately 0.7826. c. Reduce standard deviation to about 1.34.

Step by step solution

01

Finding Probability for a Single Jar

First, we need to calculate the probability that a single jar contains more than the stated content, 135 oz, given that the contents follow a normal distribution with mean \( \mu = 137.2 \) and standard deviation \( \sigma = 1.6 \). We calculate the z-score with the formula \( z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma} \), where \( x = 135 \). Substituting the values gives \( z = \frac{135 - 137.2}{1.6} = -1.375 \). Now, we look up this z-value in the standard normal distribution table and find the corresponding probability, \( P(Z > -1.375) \), which is approximately \( 0.915 \).
02

Probability of At Least Eight Out of Ten Jars

Since each jar containing more than 135 oz is an independent event with probability \( p = 0.915 \) (from Step 1), and we select 10 jars, we use the binomial probability formula: \( P(X \geq 8) = \sum_{k=8}^{10} \binom{10}{k} p^k (1-p)^{10-k} \). Calculate each term: \( P(X = 8) = \binom{10}{8} (0.915)^8 (0.085)^2 \), \( P(X = 9) = \binom{10}{9} (0.915)^9 (0.085)^1 \), \( P(X = 10) = \binom{10}{10} (0.915)^{10} \). Adding these probabilities, \( P(X \geq 8) \), gives approximately \( 0.7826 \).
03

Adjusting Standard Deviation for 95% Confidence

To find the standard deviation such that 95% of jars contain more than 135 oz, we must adjust \( \sigma \) such that \( P(X > 135) = 0.95 \). The z-score for 95% in the right tail is approximately \(-1.645\). So, set up the equation \( -1.645 = \frac{135 - 137.2}{\sigma} \). Solving for \( \sigma \) gives \( \sigma = \frac{-2.2}{-1.645} \approx 1.34 \).
04

Conclusion

We solved the three parts of the question using z-scores and binomial probabilities. In Part a, the probability a jar is more than 135 oz is 0.915. In Part b, the probability that at least 8 of 10 jars exceed 135 oz is approximately 0.7826. For Part c, reducing the standard deviation to approximately 1.34 will allow 95% of jars to exceed 135 oz.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Distribution
The normal distribution, also known as the Gaussian distribution, is essential in statistics for modeling real-world phenomena. It is characterized by a symmetric, bell-shaped curve where most of the data points cluster around the mean. This mean, denoted as \( \mu \), serves as the center of the distribution.
In the context of the exercise, the jars' contents follow a normal distribution with a mean of 137.2 oz and a standard deviation of 1.6 oz. This tells us that most jars will have contents close to the mean of 137.2 oz, but there will be some variation. The probability of any single jar containing a specific amount, such as more than the stated content of 135 oz, depends on how far this value is from the mean and how spread out the distribution is, determined by the standard deviation.
Binomial Probability
Binomial probability is used to calculate the likelihood of a certain number of successes in a fixed number of trials, each with the same probability of success. Here, success can mean different things based on the problem. In our case, we define a jar having more than 135 oz as a success.
Given that we've determined the probability of a single jar having more than 135 oz is approximately 0.915, we might want to know the likelihood that at least eight out of ten jars exceed the stated content. This involves summing up binomial probabilities for every possible way to achieve eight, nine, or ten successes among the ten jars. The binomial probability formula involves using combinations and powers of the individual success probability. By calculating these, we find that the probability of at least eight jars having contents exceeding 135 oz is about 0.7826.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure of how spread out the numbers in a data set are. In a normal distribution, it provides insight into the typical distance of data points from the mean. Larger standard deviations indicate more spread out data, while smaller ones indicate data closer to the mean.
For the jars, a standard deviation of 1.6 oz suggests there's some variability in their contents. However, if we want 95% of jars to exceed 135 oz, we need to adjust this spread. The exercise solution shows that decreasing the standard deviation to about 1.34 would lead to such a result. This adjustment narrows the distribution, thereby increasing the number of jars beyond 135 oz.
Z-Score
The z-score helps measure how far away a specific data point is from the mean, expressed in terms of standard deviations. It's calculated using the formula \( z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma} \), where \( x \) is a data point, \( \mu \) is the mean, and \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation.
In our exercise, to determine how many jars exceed 135 oz, we calculate the z-score as \(-1.375\). This means 135 oz is 1.375 standard deviations below the mean. By looking up this z-score in a z-table, we can find the corresponding probability, which assists in determining outcomes like the likelihood of a jar exceeding the stated contents.
Confidence Interval
A confidence interval provides a range of values, derived from sample data, within which we infer the true population parameter lies with a certain confidence level. While it doesn’t directly feature in the current problem set, understanding it is crucial when discussing standard deviations and probabilities.
When adjusting the standard deviation so that 95% of jars contain more than the stated content, it's akin to setting bounds, like in confidence intervals. However, instead of estimating a parameter, we're adjusting the distribution parameters to meet a desired outcome. Through understanding a confidence interval, statisticians can make informed predictions about further samples from the population.

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