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Suppose the population distribution is normal with known \(\sigma\). Let \(\gamma\) be such that \(0<\gamma<\alpha\). For testing \(H_{0}: \mu=\mu_{0}\) versus \(H_{\mathrm{a}}: \mu \neq \mu_{0}\), consider the test that rejects \(H_{0}\) if either \(z \geq z_{\gamma}\) or \(z \leq-z_{\alpha-\gamma}\), where the test statistic is \(Z=\left(\bar{X}-\mu_{0}\right) /(\sigma / \sqrt{n})\) a. Show that \(P\) (type I error \()=\alpha\). b. Derive an expression for \(\beta\left(\mu^{\prime}\right)\). [Hint: Express the test in the form "reject \(H_{0}\) if either \(\bar{x} \geq c_{1}\) or \(\leq c_{2}\)."] c. Let \(\Delta>0\). For what values of \(\gamma\) (relative to \(\alpha\) ) will \(\beta\left(\mu_{0}+\Delta\right)<\beta\left(\mu_{0}-\Delta\right) ?\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability of Type I error is \(\alpha\). For \(\beta(\mu_0+\Delta)<\beta(\mu_0-\Delta)\), choose \(\gamma > \alpha/2\).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Hypothesis

We are testing the null hypothesis \(H_0: \mu = \mu_0\) against the alternative hypothesis \(H_a: \mu eq \mu_0\). The null hypothesis is rejected if \(z \geq z_{\gamma}\) or \(z \leq -z_{\alpha - \gamma}\), where \(z\) is the test statistic.
02

Define Type I Error Probability \( \alpha \)

Type I error occurs when \(H_0\) is true but rejected. The probability of these errors, \( P \text{(Type I error)} \), should equal \( \alpha \).
03

Calculate Rejection Regions

Since the rejection condition is either \(z \geq z_{\gamma}\) or \(z \leq -z_{\alpha - \gamma}\), the Type I error rate is computed as: \[ P(Z \geq z_{\gamma}) + P(Z \leq -z_{\alpha - \gamma}) = \alpha. \] The sum of tail probabilities must equal \( \alpha \).
04

Express Test in Terms of \( \bar{x} \)

The statistical test can be expressed as: reject \(H_0\) if \( \bar{x} \geq c_1 \) or \( \bar{x} \leq c_2 \), where \( c_1 = \mu_0 + z_{\gamma} \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \) and \( c_2 = \mu_0 - z_{\alpha - \gamma} \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \).
05

Derive Expression for Type II Error \(\beta(\mu')\)

Type II error occurs when the test fails to reject \( H_0\) when \( H_a \) is true (\(\mu = \mu'\)). The error rate, \(\beta(\mu')\), is: \[ \beta(\mu') = P(c_2 < \bar{x} < c_1 | \mu = \mu'). \]
06

Analyze \(\beta(\mu_0 + \Delta)\) and \(\beta(\mu_0 - \Delta)\)

The expression \( \beta(\mu_0 + \Delta) < \beta(\mu_0 - \Delta) \) implies the test is more powerful for \(\mu_0 + \Delta\). Analyze the critical regions for \(\gamma > \alpha/2\) to ensure \(\beta(\mu_0 + \Delta) < \beta(\mu_0 - \Delta)\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Distribution
The normal distribution is a cornerstone in statistics, often referred to as the bell curve because of its characteristic shape. It is a continuous probability distribution that is symmetrical around the mean, describing data that clusters around a central point.
  • The mean (\( \mu \)) is the peak center, while the standard deviation (\( \sigma \)) dictates the curve's width.
  • Most observations (about 68%) lie within one standard deviation of the mean.
  • This distribution is crucial in hypothesis testing because many statistical tests rely on the assumption of normality.
Understanding normal distribution helps in visualizing where most of your data points fall and predicting probabilities for hypothesis testing scenarios.
In the context of hypothesis testing, the normal distribution is used to model the distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis. This helps statisticians determine the likelihood (\( p\text{-value} \)) of observing test results as extreme or more extreme than those actually observed, under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true.
Type I Error
In statistics, a type I error occurs when the null hypothesis (\( H_0 \)) is incorrectly rejected when it is true. This is akin to a false positive in testing, where an effect is detected that does not actually exist. Avoiding type I errors is crucial to maintaining the integrity of your test:
  • The probability of making a type I error is denoted by \( \alpha, \) also known as the significance level.
  • Common threshold values for \( \alpha \) are 0.05, 0.01, and 0.10, representing a 5%, 1%, and 10% risk of rejecting the null hypothesis when it's true.
  • Choosing a smaller \( \alpha \) reduces the risk of a type I error, but it can increase the risk of type II errors.
By controlling \( \alpha, \) researchers can define how stringent their test is. In the provided exercise, maintaining the sum of probability tails equal to \( \alpha \) ensures that the risk of type I error is controlled.
Type II Error
A type II error, or \( \beta \), occurs when the null hypothesis (\( H_0 \)) is not rejected even though the alternative hypothesis (\( H_a \)) is true. This error is akin to a false negative and can be detrimental when failing to detect a genuine effect.
  • The value of \( \beta \) is often represented as the probability of making a type II error.
  • Lower \( \beta \) values indicate a lower risk of failing to reject the null hypothesis when the alternative is true.
  • \( \beta \) complements power (\( 1 - \beta \)), which represents the probability of correctly rejecting the null hypothesis.\
In hypothesis testing, it's crucial to balance type I and type II errors to ensure test reliability. The exercise provided gives options for adjustment with values of \( \gamma,\) helping improve power for specific critical testing values.
Test Statistic
The test statistic is a vital component in hypothesis testing, serving as a standardized value that helps determine whether to reject the null hypothesis. It transforms sample data into a single score under the assumption of the null hypothesis.
  • In the context of normal distribution, the test statistic follows a standard normal distribution if \( H_0 \) holds true.
  • The test statistic \( Z \) is calculated as: \[ Z = \frac{\bar{X} - \mu_0}{\sigma / \sqrt{n}} \]where \( \bar{X} \) is the sample mean, \( \mu_0 \) is the hypothesized population mean, \( \sigma \) is the population standard deviation, and \( n \) is the sample size.
  • This value determines how far the sample mean is from the population mean in terms of standard deviations.
The test statistic is compared to critical values or used to calculate a \( p\text{-value} \) to decide the fate of the null hypothesis. Whether a test statistic falls in the rejection region directly influences the decision-making process in hypothesis testing.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Scientists think that robots will play a crucial role in factories in the next several decades. Suppose that in an experiment to determine whether the use of robots to weave computer cables is feasible, a robot was used to assemble 500 cables. The cables were examined and there were 15 defectives. If human assemblers have a defect rate of \(.035\) \((3.5 \%)\), does this data support the hypothesis that the proportion of defectives is lower for robots than for humans? Use a .01 significance level.

A regular type of laminate is currently being used by a manufacturer of circuit boards. A special laminate has been developed to reduce warpage. The regular laminate will be used on one sample of specimens and the special laminate on another sample, and the amount of warpage will then be determined for each specimen. The manufacturer will then switch to the special laminate only if it can be demonstrated that the true average amount of warpage for that laminate is less than for the regular laminate. State the relevant hypotheses, and describe the type I and type II errors in the context of this situation.

The accompanying data on cube compressive strength (MPa) of concrete specimens appeared in the article "Experimental Study of Recycled Rubber-Filled HighStrength Concrete" (Magazine of Concrete Res., 2009: \(549-556)\) \(\begin{array}{rrrrr}112.3 & 97.0 & 92.7 & 86.0 & 102.0 \\ 99.2 & 95.8 & 103.5 & 89.0 & 86.7\end{array}\) a. Is it plausible that the compressive strength for this type of concrete is normally distributed? b. Suppose the concrete will be used for a particular application unless there is strong evidence that true average strength is less than \(100 \mathrm{MPa}\). Should the concrete be used? Carry out a test of appropriate hypotheses using the \(P\)-value method.

For a fixed alternative value \(\mu^{\prime}\), show that \(\beta\left(\mu^{\prime}\right) \rightarrow 0\) as \(n \rightarrow \infty\) for either a one-tailed or a two-tailed \(z\) test in the case of a normal population distribution with known \(\sigma\).

For which of the given \(P\)-values would the null hypothesis be rejected when performing a level .05 test? a. \(.001\) b. \(.021\) c. \(.078\) d. \(.047\) e. \(.148\)

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