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Customers at a gas station pay with a credit card \((A)\), debit card \((B)\), or cash \((C)\). Assume that successive customers make independent choices, with \(P(A)=.5, P(B)=.2\), and \(P(C)=.3\). a. Among the next 100 customers, what are the mean and variance of the number who pay with a debit card? Explain your reasoning. b. Answer part (a) for the number among the 100 who don't pay with cash.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. Mean = 20, Variance = 16; b. Mean = 70, Variance = 21.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We need to calculate the mean and variance for the number of customers using certain payment methods among 100 customers at a gas station, assuming independent trials with known probabilities for each payment method.
02

Define Random Variables

Let X be the number of customers paying with a debit card (B). Since each customer independently chooses a payment method, and there are 100 customers, X follows a binomial distribution \(X \sim \text{Binomial}(n=100, p=0.2)\).
03

Calculating the Mean for Debit Card Payments

For a binomial distribution \(X \sim \text{Binomial}(n, p)\), the mean is given by \(E[X] = np\). Here, \(n = 100\) and \(p = 0.2\), so the mean \(E[X] = 100 \times 0.2 = 20\).
04

Calculating the Variance for Debit Card Payments

For a binomial distribution \(X \sim \text{Binomial}(n, p)\), the variance is given by \(Var(X) = np(1-p)\). Here, \(n = 100\) and \(p = 0.2\), so \(Var(X) = 100 \times 0.2 \times 0.8 = 16\).
05

Define Random Variable for Non-Cash Payments

Let Y be the number of customers who do not pay with cash. The probability of not using cash \(P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) = 0.5 + 0.2 = 0.7\). Y follows \(Y \sim \text{Binomial}(n=100, p=0.7)\).
06

Calculating the Mean for Non-Cash Payments

The mean for the number of non-cash payments is \(E[Y] = np = 100 \times 0.7 = 70\).
07

Calculating the Variance for Non-Cash Payments

The variance for the number of non-cash payments is \(Var(Y) = np(1-p) = 100 \times 0.7 \times 0.3 = 21\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Mean and Variance Calculation
The mean and variance are two fundamental concepts in statistics, especially when dealing with binomial distributions. The mean, also known as the expected value, indicates the average outcome you would expect if you repeated an experiment over and over again. For a binomial distribution with parameters \(n\) and \(p\)—where \(n\) represents the number of trials, and \(p\) represents the probability of success in each trial—the mean is calculated as \(E[X] = np\). This formula gives you the long-term average number of successes out of \(n\) trials.
Variance, on the other hand, measures how much the data varies around the mean. It offers insights into the consistency of the results. For a binomial distribution, the variance is determined by \(Var(X) = np(1-p)\). This equation shows that variance not only depends on the number of trials and probability of success but also on the probability of failure \((1-p)\).
In the context of the gas station example, for customers paying with a debit card, the mean or expected number is 20, and the variance is 16. This quantifies both the average number of debit card users expected among 100 customers and how much this number might vary.
Independent Trials
Independent trials are a crucial aspect of binomial experiments. An independent trial implies that the outcome of one trial doesn't affect the outcome of another. This independence is fundamental in statistics to ensure the reliability and validity of probability calculations.
When dealing with scenarios like the customer payment choices at a gas station, each customer's decision to use a credit card, debit card, or cash operates independently of others. Therefore, these are independent trials.
Why is this important? When trials are independent, the probability of success remains constant regardless of previous outcomes. This constancy simplifies the statistical calculations, as seen in calculating the mean and variance for the number of customers using a debit card or other payment methods out of 100 customers.
Always check for independence in your data to correctly apply binomial distribution formulas and get accurate insights.
Random Variables
Random variables are used in statistics to quantitatively describe outcomes of random phenomena. In simple terms, a random variable assigns a numeric value to each outcome of a probability experiment. They come in two forms—discrete and continuous. Binomial distributions, such as the one at the gas station scenario, typically involve discrete random variables because they count occurrences (like the number of debit card payments).
For the gas station example, let's consider the random variable \(X\), which represents the number of customers using a debit card. Since \(X\) is a discrete random variable, it takes on integer values, specifically from 0 to 100, corresponding to each possible count of debit card users out of the total 100 customers.
Random variables allow for a systematic way to measure and predict probabilities in statistical analysis. They form the backbone of models like the binomial distribution, providing clarity and precision in calculating mean, variance, and other statistical metrics.

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