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A new battery's voltage may be acceptable \((A)\) or unacceptable \((U)\). A certain flashlight requires two batteries, so batteries will be independently selected and tested until two acceptable ones have been found. Suppose that \(90 \%\) of all batteries have acceptable voltages. Let \(Y\) denote the number of batteries that must be tested. a. What is \(p(2)\), that is, \(P(Y=2)\) ? b. What is \(p(3)\) ? [Hint: There are two different outcomes that result in \(Y=3\).] c. To have \(Y=5\), what must be true of the fifth battery selected? List the four outcomes for which \(Y=5\) and then determine \(p(5)\). d. Use the pattern in your answers for parts (a)-(c) to obtain a general formula for \(p(y)\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) 0.81, b) 0.162, c) 0.26244, d) \(p(y) = (y-1) \cdot 0.1 \cdot (0.9)^{y-1}\).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We need to find the probabilities associated with the random variable \(Y\) which represents the number of batteries tested to get two acceptable ones. Since 90% of batteries have acceptable voltages, the probability of finding an acceptable battery is \(p = 0.9\) and for an unacceptable battery is \(1 - p = 0.1\).
02

Step a: Calculating \(p(2)\)

To have \(Y=2\), the first battery must be acceptable (A) and the second must also be acceptable (A). The probability of this sequence is \(P(A) \cdot P(A) = 0.9 \cdot 0.9 = 0.81\).
03

Step b: Calculating \(p(3)\)

For \(Y=3\), two sequences are possible: 1) \((U, A, A)\) - the first battery is unacceptable, and the second and third are acceptable, or 2) \((A, U, A)\) - the first is acceptable, but the second is unacceptable, followed by one that's acceptable. The probability is calculated as: \( (0.1 \cdot 0.9 \cdot 0.9) + (0.9 \cdot 0.1 \cdot 0.9) = 0.081 + 0.081 = 0.162\).
04

Step c.1: Understanding \(\text{Y = 5}\) Scenario

For \(Y=5\), the fifth battery must be acceptable (A), and out of the first four batteries, exactly one must be unacceptable. The configuration is \(\binom{4}{1}\) ways: exactly one \(U\) and three \(A\).
05

Step c.2: Listing the Outcomes for \(Y=5\)

Possible outcomes are: \((U, A, A, A, A)\), \((A, U, A, A, A)\), \((A, A, U, A, A)\), \((A, A, A, U, A)\).
06

Step c.3: Calculating \(p(5)\)

Each sequence has probability of \((0.1 \cdot 0.9^4)\), and since there are four such sequences, \(p(5) = 4 \cdot (0.1 \cdot 0.9^4) = 4 \cdot 0.06561 = 0.26244\).
07

Step d: General Formula for \(p(y)\)

To find \(p(y)\), consider that the \(y^{th}\) battery must be acceptable (A), and among the first \(y-1\), there must be exactly one unacceptable (U). Thus: \[ p(y) = \binom{y-1}{1} \cdot (0.1) \cdot (0.9)^{y-2} \cdot (0.9) = (y-1) \cdot 0.1 \cdot (0.9)^{y-1}. \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Random Variable
In probability theory, a random variable is a numerical description of the outcome of a random event. It assigns numerical values to all potential outcomes within a specific situation. For example, in this exercise, the random variable, denoted by \(Y\), represents the number of batteries tested until two acceptable ones are found.
The values that \(Y\) can take depend on the order in which batteries are tested and their respective voltage acceptability. Understanding random variables involves recognizing that they can take on various possible values, each with an associated probability. This unpredictability is what makes them "random" and essential for modeling real-world phenomena.
Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is a probability distribution that summarizes the likelihood that a variable will take one of two independent values under a given number of observations or trials. It is ideal for scenarios with a fixed number of experiments, each with a binary outcome which may be true or false, like success vs. failure.
In our example, even though we have a series of potentially infinite tests, each individual test has two possible outcomes: the battery is acceptable (A) or it is not (U). While the exact applications of a binomial distribution require understanding limits, and how an infinite sample space can converge to the form of a simple distribution, the probability of a single test yielding A or U aligns with this framework.
  • The probability of success (acceptable battery) is \(p = 0.9\).
  • The probability of failure (unacceptable battery) is \(1 - p = 0.1\).
Recognizing this forms a core step in predicting and calculating the probabilities in the exercise.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation in the context of this problem involves finding the likelihood of specific sequences of events occurring, based on given probabilities for individual outcomes.
For instance, to find \(p(2)\), the probability that exactly two batteries are tested, we calculate the probability of both the first and second battery being acceptable: \(0.9 \times 0.9 = 0.81\).
Similarly, \(p(3)\) pertains to the event that exactly three batteries were needed,:
  • For the sequence \((U, A, A)\), we have \(0.1 \times 0.9 \times 0.9 = 0.081\).
  • In the sequence \((A, U, A)\), the probability is also \(0.9 \times 0.1 \times 0.9 = 0.081\).
Summing these gives \(p(3) = 0.162\). Calculating probabilities in this way requires systematic enumeration of outcomes and careful multiplication of their probabilities.
Discrete Probability
Discrete probability involves outcomes that occur in countable sequences, as opposed to continuous probability, which deals with outcomes over a continuous range. Here, the random variable \(Y\), representing the number of batteries tested, is discrete because we are considering finite events at each stage.
Each \(Y\) corresponds to a distinct, countable number of trials, and the probability of each count is based on specific sequences of events leading to success.
  • For each \(y\), there is an associated probability \(p(y)\) defined by the formula: \(\binom{y-1}{1} \cdot 0.1 \cdot (0.9)^{y-1}\).
This scenario is a perfect example of discrete probability distributions, where every calculation concerns specific, separate outcomes rather than an unbroken range of possibilities. Understanding discrete probability is crucial for tackling questions where outcomes are driven by the number of trials until an event occurs.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A particular type of tennis racket comes in a midsize version and an oversize version. Sixty percent of all customers at a certain store want the oversize version. a. Among ten randomly selected customers who want this type of racket, what is the probability that at least six want the oversize version? b. Among ten randomly selected customers, what is the probability that the number who want the oversize version is within 1 standard deviation of the mean value? c. The store currently has seven rackets of each version. What is the probability that all of the next ten customers who want this racket can get the version they want from current stock?

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