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A particular type of tennis racket comes in a midsize version and an oversize version. Sixty percent of all customers at a certain store want the oversize version. a. Among ten randomly selected customers who want this type of racket, what is the probability that at least six want the oversize version? b. Among ten randomly selected customers, what is the probability that the number who want the oversize version is within 1 standard deviation of the mean value? c. The store currently has seven rackets of each version. What is the probability that all of the next ten customers who want this racket can get the version they want from current stock?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. 0.8336, b. Approx. 0.7488, c. 0.9998

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We need to calculate probabilities related to a binomial distribution where each customer's preference for the oversize version is an independent Bernoulli trial with a probability of 0.6. We're drawing 10 customers for part (a), (b) and (c).
02

Part (a) - Probability at Least 6 Want Oversize

Identify the probability mass function for a binomial distribution: \( P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \), where \( n = 10 \) and \( p = 0.6 \). Calculate \( P(X \geq 6) \) by finding \( P(X=6) + P(X=7) + P(X=8) + P(X=9) + P(X=10) \).
03

Part (a) - Calculate Individual Probabilities

Use the formula for the probability mass function to calculate \( P(X=6) \), \( P(X=7) \), \( P(X=8) \), \( P(X=9) \), and \( P(X=10) \). Sum these probabilities to find \( P(X \geq 6) \).
04

Part (b) - Mean and Standard Deviation

Calculate the mean \( \mu \) and standard deviation \( \sigma \) for the binomial distribution: \( \mu = np = 10 \times 0.6 = 6 \) and \( \sigma = \sqrt{np(1-p)} = \sqrt{10 \times 0.6 \times 0.4} = \sqrt{2.4} \approx 1.55 \).
05

Part (b) - Probability within 1 Standard Deviation

Find the probability that the number of customers is within one standard deviation of the mean: this covers \( [4.45, 7.55] \), so calculate \( P(X = 5) + P(X = 6) + P(X = 7) + P(X = 8) \).
06

Part (c) - Probability All Customers Get Desired Version

The store must provide rackets such that a maximum of 7 customers can want either version since only 7 of each are available. Calculate \( P(X \leq 7) \) and \( P(10-X \leq 7) \) since 7 of each version are available.
07

Part (c) - Calculating Suitable Probability

For a successful match, both conditions must be satisfied: calculate \( P(X \leq 7) \) and \( P(X \geq 3) \). Then multiply these probabilities together.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Bernoulli Trials
Every customer choosing between midsize and oversize tennis rackets is an example of a Bernoulli trial. Bernoulli trials are experiments or processes that lead to a binary outcome, usually labeled as 'success' or 'failure'.
In this context, a 'success' could be a customer preferring the oversize racket, while a 'failure' might be choosing the midsize version.
Since each trial (or customer decision) is independent, the probability of success remains the same for each customer. In our exercise, this probability is 0.6, indicating that 60% of customers prefer the oversize racket. Bernoulli trials form the backbone of binomial distributions, helping to calculate the likelihood of a given number of successes in multiple trials.
Probability Mass Function
The Probability Mass Function (PMF) is a crucial tool for understanding binomial distributions. It tells us the probability of a fixed number of successes out of a set number of Bernoulli trials.
For a binomial distribution, the PMF is given by the formula \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \] where \( n \) is the total number of trials, \( p \) is the probability of success for each trial, and \( k \) is the number of successes.
For example, in determining the probability that exactly 6 out of 10 customers want the oversize racket, the PMF helps calculate the precise probability for these conditions.
Using the PMF, one can calculate probabilities for various outcomes necessary for solving the problem, such as "at least six customers prefer oversize" by summing up probabilities from 6 to 10 successes.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure of the variation or spread in a set of values. When dealing with binomial distributions, it indicates how much individual probabilities deviate from the expected value (the mean).
For a binomial distribution, the standard deviation \( \sigma \) is calculated by the formula \[ \sigma = \sqrt{np(1-p)} \] where \( n \) signifies the number of trials, and \( p \) is the probability of success.
In our exercise, with \( n = 10 \) and \( p = 0.6 \), the standard deviation is approximately 1.55.
This tells us that the number of customers wanting the oversize racket typically falls around the mean (6), but shifts slightly higher or lower. Understanding this helps identify how stable or variable customer preferences might be.
Mean in Probability
The mean in probability, often referred to as the expected value, is a summary statistic that gives us an average outcome when an experiment is repeated multiple times.
In a binomial distribution, the mean \( \mu \) is determined by the formula \[ \mu = np \] where \( n \) is the total number of trials, and \( p \) is the probability of success.
For the tennis racket example, the mean number of customers expected to prefer the oversize racket is 6, as calculated from the given 10 customers and a 60% preference probability.
The mean serves as a central point in understanding customer preference trends and helps determine the range where the majority of outcomes will fall, particularly when analyzing deviations or probabilities within specific limits.

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