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Each of a group of \(20\) intermediate tennis players is given two rackets, one having nylon strings and the other synthetic gut strings. After several weeks of playing with the two rackets, each player will be asked to state a preference for one of the two types of strings. Let \(p\) denote the proportion of all such players who would prefer gut to nylon, and let \(X\) be the number of players in the sample who prefer gut. Because gut strings are more expensive, consider the null hypothesis that at most \(50\% \) of all such players prefer gut. We simplify this to \({H_0}:p = .5\), planning to reject \({H_0}\) only if sample evidence strongly favors gut strings.

a. Is a significance level of exactly \(.05\) achievable? If not, what is the largest a smaller than \(.05\) that is achievable?

b. If \(60\% \) of all enthusiasts prefer gut, calculate the probability of a type II error using the significance level from part (a). Repeat if 80% of all enthusiasts prefer gut.

c. If \(13\) out of the \(20\) players prefer gut, should \({H_0}\) be rejected using the significance level of (a)?

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a) It is not achievable and the value is\(\alpha = 0.0207\).

(b) The values are\(\beta (0.60) = 0.8744 = 87.44\% \)and\(\beta (0.80) = 0.1958 = 19.58\% \).

(c) The null hypothesis has not been rejected.

Step by step solution

01

Define binomial probability.

The likelihood of exactly \(x\) successes on \(n\) repeated trials in an experiment with two alternative outcomes is known as binomial probability (commonly called a binomial experiment).

The binomial probability is\({}_n{C_x} \cdot {p^x} \cdot {(1 - p)^{n - x}}\)if the likelihood of success on an individual trial is\(p\).

The number of alternative combinations of \(x\) objects chosen from a set of \(n\) objects is indicated by \({}_n{C_x}\).

02

Test the appropriate hypothesis.

(a)

Let the given be:

\(\begin{array}{c}p = 0.5\\n = 20\\\alpha = 0.05\\{H_0}:p = 0.5\\{H_a}:p > 0.5\end{array}\)

The number of success X within the sample of \(20\) with constant probability of success follows the binomial distribution: \(X \sim b(20,0.5)\)

If the null hypothesis is true, the P-value is the chance of getting the test statistic's value, or a value more extreme. The probability to the right of \(x\) is hence the P-value.

If the P-value is less than the \(0.05\) significance level, the null hypothesis will be rejected.

Because the last column of the table does not include the precise number \(0.05\), the significance level of \(0.05\) cannot be achieved.

The maximum \(\alpha \) less than \(0.05\) that can be achieved is the value in the table's last column that is less than \(0.05\): \(\alpha = 0.0207\)

(b)

Let the given be:

\(\begin{array}{c}p = 0.5\\n = 20\\\alpha = 0.0207\\{H_0}:p = 0.5\\{H_a}:p > 0.5\end{array}\)

The number of success X within the sample of \(20\) with constant probability of success follows the binomial distribution: \(X \sim b(20,0.5)\)

If the null hypothesis is true, the P-value is the chance of getting the test statistic's value, or a value more extreme. The probability to the right of \(x\) is hence the P-value.

If the P-value is less than or equal to the significance level of \(0.0207\), the null hypothesis is rejected. If \(x > 14\), reject the null hypothesis.

Now, \({p_A} = 60\% = 0.60\).

When the null hypothesis is false, the probability of making a type II error is the probability of not rejecting the null hypothesis. Using the \(p = 0.6\) definition of binomial probability, we obtain:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\beta (0.60) &= P(X \le 14)\\ &= P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + ... + P(X = 14)\\ &= 0.8744\\ &= 87.44\% \end{aligned}\)

Now, \({p_A} = 80\% = 0.80\).

When the null hypothesis is false, the probability of making a type II error is the probability of not rejecting the null hypothesis. Using the \(p = 0.6\) definition of binomial probability, we obtain:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\beta (0.80) &= P(X \le 14)\\ &= P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + ... + P(X = 14)\\ &= 0.1958\\ &= 19.58\% \end{aligned}\)

If the null hypothesis is true, the P-value is the chance of getting the test statistic's value, or a value more extreme. The probability to the right of x is hence the P-value.

If the P-value is less than or equal to the significance level of \(0.0207\), the null hypothesis is rejected. If \(x > 14\), reject the null hypothesis. Hence, fail to reject the null hypothesis \({H_0}\).

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