/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Q74E Once an individual has been infe... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91影视

91影视

Once an individual has been infected with a certain disease, let \({\rm{X}}\) represent the time (days) that elapses before the individual becomes infectious. The article proposes a Weibull distribution with \({\rm{\alpha = 2}}{\rm{.2}}\), \({\rm{\beta = 1}}{\rm{.1}}\), and \({\rm{\gamma = 0}}{\rm{.5}}\).

a. Calculate \({\rm{P(1 < X < 2)}}\).

b. Calculate \({\rm{P(X > 1}}{\rm{.5)}}\).

c. What is the \({\rm{90th}}\) percentile of the distribution?

d. What are the mean and standard deviation of \({\rm{X}}\)?

Short Answer

Expert verified

a.The probability then becomes:

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{P(1 < X < 2) = 0}}{\rm{.699948}}\\{\rm{ = 69}}{\rm{.9948\% }}\end{array}\)

b.The probability then becomes:

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{P(X > 1}}{\rm{.5) = 0}}{\rm{.444484}}\\{\rm{ = 44}}{\rm{.4484\% }}\end{array}\)

c. The \({\rm{90th}}\) percentile of the distribution is \(2.107\)

d. The mean and standard deviation

\(\begin{array}{l}{\rm{\mu = 1}}{\rm{.474187}}\\{\rm{\sigma = 0}}{\rm{.467443}}\end{array}\)

Step by step solution

01

Definition of Weibull distribution

The Weibull Distribution is a continuous probability distribution that can be used to analyze life statistics, model failure times, and determine product reliability.

02

Calculate the equation

Given: \({\rm{X}}\)has a general Weibull distribution with

\(\begin{array}{l}{\rm{\alpha = 2}}{\rm{.2}}\\{\rm{\beta = 1}}{\rm{.1}}\\{\rm{\gamma = 0}}{\rm{.5P(1 < X < 2)}}\end{array}\)

Then we know that \({\rm{Y = X - }}\gamma \) has a (regular) Weibull distribution with \({\rm{\alpha = 2}}{\rm{.2}}\) and \({\rm{\beta = 1}}{\rm{.1}}\), thus:

\({\rm{X = Y + }}\gamma \)

Rewrite the given probability in terms of \({\rm{Y}}\):

\(\begin{aligned} P(1 < X < 2) &= P(1 < Y + \gamma < {\rm{2)}}\\ &= P(1 - \gamma < {\rm{Y}} < 2 - \gamma )\\ &= P(Y < 2 - \gamma ){\rm{ - P(Y}} \le 1 - \gamma )\\ &= P(Y \le 2 - \gamma ){\rm{ - P(Y}} \le 1 - \gamma )\\ &= P(Y \le 2 - 0.5){\rm{ - P(Y}} \le 1 - 0.5)\\ &= P(Y \le 1.5){\rm{ - P(Y}} \le 0.5)\\ &= {\rm{F(1}}{\rm{.5) - F(0}}{\rm{.5)}}\end{aligned}\)

Cumulative distribution function of a (regular) Weibull distribution:

\({\rm{F(x;\alpha ,\beta ) = }}\left\{ {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}0&{x < 0}\\{1 - {{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - (x/\beta }}{{\rm{)}}^{\rm{\alpha }}}}}}&{x \ge 0}\end{array}} \right.\)

Evaluate at \({\rm{x = 1}}{\rm{.5}}\) and \({\rm{x = 0}}{\rm{.5}}\):

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{F(1}}{\rm{.5;\alpha ,\beta ) = F(1}}{\rm{.5;2}}{\rm{.2,1}}{\rm{.1)}}\\{\rm{ = 1 - }}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - (1}}{\rm{.5/1}}{\rm{.1}}{{\rm{)}}^{{\rm{2}}{\rm{.2}}}}}} \approx 0.861724\\F(0.5;\alpha ,\beta ) = {\rm{F(0}}{\rm{.5;2}}{\rm{.2,1}}{\rm{.1)}}\\{\rm{ = 1 - }}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - (0}}{\rm{.5/1}}{\rm{.1}}{{\rm{)}}^{{\rm{2}}{\rm{.2}}}}}} \approx 0.161776\end{array}\)

Therefore,The probability then becomes:

\(\begin{aligned}P(1 < X < 2) &= F(1}}{\rm{.5) - F(0}}{\rm{.5)}}\\ &= 0 {\rm{.861724 - 0}}{\rm{.161776}}\\ &= 0{\rm{.699948}}\\ &= 69{\rm{.9948\% }}\end{aligned}\)

03

Calculate the equation

Given: The Weibull distribution for \({\rm{X}}\) is universal.

\(\begin{array}{l}{\rm{\alpha = 2}}{\rm{.2}}\\{\rm{\beta = 1}}{\rm{.1}}\\\gamma {\rm{ = 0}}{\rm{.5P(X > 1}}{\rm{.5)}}\end{array}\)

Then we know that \({\rm{Y = X - }}\gamma \) has a (regular) Weibull distribution with \({\rm{\alpha = 2}}{\rm{.2}}\) and \({\rm{\beta = 1}}{\rm{.1}}\), thus:

\({\rm{X = Y + }}\gamma \)

Complement rule:

\({\rm{P(notA) = 1 - P(A)}}\)

Use the complement rule to rewrite the given probability in terms of \({\rm{Y}}\):

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{P(X}} > 1.5){\rm{ = P(Y}} + \gamma > 1.5)\\{\rm{ = P(Y > }}1.5 - \gamma )\\{\rm{ = 1 - P(Y}} \le 1.5 - \gamma )\\{\rm{ = 1 - P(Y}} \le 1.5 - 0.5)\\{\rm{ = 1 - P(Y}} \le 1)\\{\rm{ = 1 - F(1)}}\end{array}\)

A (regular) Weibull distribution's cumulative distribution function is:

\({\rm{F(x;\alpha ,\beta )}} = \left\{ {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}0&{x < 0}\\{{\rm{1 - }}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - (x/\beta }}{{\rm{)}}^{\rm{\alpha }}}}}}&{x \ge 0}\end{array}} \right.\)

Evaluate at $x=1$ :

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{F(1;\alpha ,\beta ) = F(1;2}}{\rm{.2,1}}{\rm{.1)}}\\{\rm{ = 1 - }}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - (1/1}}{\rm{.1}}{{\rm{)}}^{{\rm{2}}{\rm{.2}}}}}} \approx 0.555516\end{array}\)

Therefore,The likelihood then becomes:

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{P(X > 1}}{\rm{.5) = 1 - F(1)}}\\{\rm{ = 1 - 0}}{\rm{.555516}}\\{\rm{ = 0}}{\rm{.444484}}\\{\rm{ = 44}}{\rm{.4484\% }}\end{array}\)

04

Explain the \({\rm{90th}}\) percentile of the distribution?

The number \({\rm{X}}\) represents the amount of time (in days) that passes before the individual becomes contagious. Also, \({\rm{X}}\) has the following Weibull distribution parameters:

\(\begin{array}{l}{\rm{\alpha = 2}}{\rm{.2}}\\{\rm{\beta = 1}}{\rm{.1}}\\\gamma = 0.5\end{array}\)

The cdf of given Weibull rv can be written as:

\({\rm{F(x) = }}\left\{ {\begin{array}{*{20}{l}}0&{x < 0}\\{{\rm{1 - }}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - ((x - 0}}{\rm{.5)/1}}{\rm{.1}}{{\rm{)}}^{{\rm{2}}{\rm{.2}}}}}}}&{x \ge 0.5}\end{array}} \right.\)

Let us denote the \({90^{{\rm{th }}}}\)percentile by \({\mathop{\rm p}\nolimits} \)

Then using the cdf, we can write \({\mathop{\rm P}\nolimits} (X \le 6)\)as:

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{P(X}} \le p){\rm{ = 0}}{\rm{.91 - }}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - ((p - 0}}{\rm{.5)/1}}{\rm{.1}}{{\rm{)}}^{{\rm{2}}{\rm{.2}}}}}}\\{\rm{ = 0}}{\rm{.9}}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - ((p - 0}}{\rm{.5)/1}}{\rm{.1}}{{\rm{)}}^{{\rm{2}}{\rm{.2}}}}}}\\{\rm{ = 0}}{\rm{.1}}{\left( {\frac{{{\rm{p - 0}}{\rm{.5}}}}{{{\rm{1}}{\rm{.1}}}}} \right)^{{\rm{2}}{\rm{.2}}}}\\{\rm{ = - ln(0}}{\rm{.1)}}\\{\rm{p = 0}}{\rm{.5 + (1}}{\rm{.1) \times ( - ln(0}}{\rm{.1)}}{{\rm{)}}^{{\rm{1/2}}{\rm{.2}}}}\\{\rm{p = 2}}{\rm{.107}}\end{array}\)

Definition : Let p be a number between 0 and l. The \({{\rm{(100p)}}^{{\rm{th}}}}\)percentile of the distribution of a continuous rv \({\rm{X}}\), denoted by \({{\rm{\eta }}_{\rm{p}}}\), is defined by

\({\rm{p = F}}\left( {{\eta _p}} \right) = \int_{ - \infty }^{{\eta _p}} f {\rm{(y)dy}}\)

Therefore ,The \({\rm{90th}}\) percentile of the distribution is \(2.107\)

05

Explain the mean and standard deviation of \({\rm{X}}\)?

Given: \({\rm{X}}\) has a general Weibull distribution with

\(\begin{array}{l}{\rm{\alpha = 2}}{\rm{.2}}\\{\rm{\beta = 1}}{\rm{.1}}\\\gamma = 0.5\end{array}\)

Then we know that \({\rm{Y = X - }}\gamma \) has a (regular) Weibull distribution with \({\rm{\alpha = 2}}{\rm{.2}}\)and \({\rm{\beta = 1}}{\rm{.1}}\), thus:

\({\rm{X = Y + }}\gamma \)

The mean and variance of a (regular) Weibull distribution are calculated using the following formula:

\(\begin{array}{l}{\rm{E(Y) = \beta \Gamma }}\left( {{\rm{1 + }}\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{\rm{\alpha }}}} \right)\\{\rm{V(Y) = }}{{\rm{\beta }}^{\rm{2}}}\left( {{\rm{\Gamma }}\left( {{\rm{1 + }}\frac{{\rm{2}}}{{\rm{\alpha }}}} \right){\rm{ - }}{{\left( {{\rm{\Gamma }}\left( {{\rm{1 + }}\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{\rm{\alpha }}}} \right)} \right)}^{\rm{2}}}} \right)\end{array}\)

Evaluate for \({\rm{\alpha = 2}}{\rm{.2}}\) and \({\rm{\beta = 1}}{\rm{.1}}\):

\(\begin{array}{l}E(Y) = \beta \Gamma \left( {1 + \frac{1}{\alpha }} \right) = 1.1\Gamma \left( {1 + \frac{1}{{2.2}}} \right) \approx 0.974187\\V(Y) = {\beta ^2}\left( {\Gamma \left( {1 + \frac{2}{\alpha }} \right) - \left( {\Gamma {{\left( {1 + \frac{1}{\alpha }} \right)}^2}} \right) = {{1.1}^2}\left( {\Gamma \left( {1 + \frac{2}{{2.2}}} \right) - {{\left( {\Gamma \left( {1 + \frac{1}{{2.2}}} \right)} \right)}^2}} \right) \approx 0.218503} \right.\end{array}\)

For the linear combination \({\rm{W = aX + b}}\), the mean and variance have the following properties:

\(\begin{array}{l}{\rm{E(W) = aE(X) + b}}\\{\rm{V(W) = }}{{\rm{a}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{V(X)}}\end{array}\)

We can then calculate the mean and variance of \({\rm{X}}\) using these properties:

\(\begin{aligned} \mu &= E(X) \\ &= E(Y + \gamma )\\ &= E(Y) + \gamma }}\\ &= 0 {\rm{.974187 + 0}}{\rm{.5}}\\ &= 1 {\rm{.474187}}\\{{\rm{\sigma }}^{\rm{2}}} &= V(X) \\{\rm{ = V(Y + \gamma )}}\\ &= V(Y)\\ &= 0 {\rm{.218503}}\end{aligned}\)

06

Determine standard deviation

The square root of the variance is the standard deviation:

\(\begin{array}{c}\sigma = \sqrt {{\sigma ^2}} \\ = \sqrt {0.218503} \approx 0.467443\end{array}\)

Therefore, The mean and standard deviation

\(\begin{array}{l}{\rm{\mu = 1}}{\rm{.474187}}\\{\rm{\sigma = 0}}{\rm{.467443}}\end{array}\)

Unlock Step-by-Step Solutions & Ace Your Exams!

  • Full Textbook Solutions

    Get detailed explanations and key concepts

  • Unlimited Al creation

    Al flashcards, explanations, exams and more...

  • Ads-free access

    To over 500 millions flashcards

  • Money-back guarantee

    We refund you if you fail your exam.

Over 30 million students worldwide already upgrade their learning with 91影视!

One App. One Place for Learning.

All the tools & learning materials you need for study success - in one app.

Get started for free

Most popular questions from this chapter

a. Give three different examples of concrete populations and three different examples of hypothetical populations.

b. For one each of your concrete and your hypothetical populations, give an example of a probability question and an example of an inferential statistics question.

The actual tracking weight of a stereo cartridge that is set to track at \({\rm{3 g}}\) on a particular changer can be regarded as a continuous rv \({\rm{X}}\) with pdf

\({\rm{f(x) = \{ }}\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{{\rm{k(1 - (x - 3}}{{\rm{)}}^2})}&{{\rm{2}} \le {\rm{x}} \le {\rm{4}}}\\{\rm{0}}&{{\rm{otherwise}}}\end{array}\)

a. Sketch the graph of \({\rm{f(x)}}\).

b. Find the value of \({\rm{k}}\).

c. What is the probability that the actual tracking weight is greater than the prescribed weight?

d. What is the probability that the actual weight is within \({\rm{.25 g}}\) of the prescribed weight?

e. What is the probability that the actual weight differs from the prescribed weight by more than \({\rm{.5 g}}\)?

The accompanying data set consists of observations on shear strength (lb) of ultrasonic spot welds made on a certain type of alclad sheet. Construct a relative frequency histogram based on ten equal-width classes with boundaries 4000, 4200, 鈥. [The histogram will agree with the one in 鈥淐omparison of Properties of Joints Prepared by Ultrasonic Welding and Other Means鈥 (J. of Aircraft, 1983: 552鈥556).] Comment on its features.

5434

4948

4521

4570

4990

5702

5241

5112

5015

4659

4806

4637

5670

4381

4820

5043

4886

4599

5288

5299

4848

5378

5260

5055

5828

5218

4859

4780

5027

5008

4609

4772

5133

5095

4618

4848

5089

5518

5333

5164

5342

5069

4755

4925

5001

4803

4951

5679

5256

5207

5621

4918

5138

4786

4500

5461

5049

4974

4592

4173

5296

4965

5170

4740

5173

4568

5653

5078

4900

4968

5248

5245

4723

5275

5419

5205

4452

5227

5555

5388

5498

4681

5076

4774

4931

4493

5309

5582

4308

4823

4417

5364

5640

5069

5188

5764

5273

5042

5189

4986

The accompanying frequency distribution of fracture strength (MPa) observations for ceramic bars fired in aparticular kiln appeared in the article 鈥淓valuating TunnelKiln Performance鈥 (Amer. Ceramic Soc. Bull., Aug.1997: 59鈥63).

Class81-<83 83-<85 85-<87 87-<89 89-<91

Frequency6 7 17 30 43

Class91-<93 93-<95 95-<97 97-<99

Frequency28 22 13 3

  1. Construct a histogram based on relative frequencies, and comment on any interesting features.
  2. What proportion of the strength observations are at least 85? Less than 95?

c. Roughly what proportion of the observations are less than 90?

Two airplanes are flying in the same direction in adjacent parallel corridors. At time \({\rm{t = 10}}\), the first airplane is \({\rm{10}}\)km ahead of the second one. Suppose the speed of the first plane (km/hr.) is normally distributed with mean \({\rm{520\;}}\)and standard deviation \({\rm{10}}\) and the second plane鈥檚 speed is also normally distributed with mean and standard deviation \({\rm{500\; and\; 10}}\), respectively.

a. What is the probability that after \({\rm{2hr}}{\rm{. }}\)of flying, the second plane has not caught up to the first plane?

b. Determine the probability that the planes are separated by at most \({\rm{10km\; after\; 2hr}}{\rm{. }}\)

See all solutions

Recommended explanations on Math Textbooks

View all explanations

What do you think about this solution?

We value your feedback to improve our textbook solutions.

Study anywhere. Anytime. Across all devices.