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Suppose the expected tensile strength of type-A steel is \({\rm{105ksi}}\)and the standard deviation of tensile strength is \({\rm{8ksi}}\). For type-B steel, suppose the expected tensile strength and standard deviation of tensile strength are \({\rm{100ksi}}\)and \({\rm{6ksi}}\), respectively. Let \({\rm{\bar X = }}\)the sample average tensile strength of a random sample of \({\rm{40}}\) type-A specimens, and let \({\rm{\bar Y = }}\)the sample average tensile strength of a random sample of \({\rm{35}}\)type-B specimens.

a. What is the approximate distribution of \({\rm{\bar X ? of \bar Y?}}\)

b. What is the approximate distribution of \({\rm{\bar X - \bar Y}}\)? Justify your answer.

c. Calculate (approximately) \(P( - 1£\bar X - \bar Y£1)\)

d. Calculate. If you actually observed , would you doubt that \({{\rm{\mu }}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ - }}{{\rm{\mu }}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ = 5?}}\)

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a): \({\rm{ \bar X}}\)Approximately normal, with a mean of \({\rm{105}}\)and a standard deviation of \({\rm{1}}{\rm{.2649}}{\rm{.}}\)

\({\rm{\bar Y}}\): Almost typical, with a mean of \({\rm{100}}\) and a standard deviation of $1.0142.

(b) \({\rm{\bar X - \bar Y}}\): Close to normal, with a mean of \({\rm{5}}\) and a standard deviation of \({\rm{1}}{\rm{.6213}}\)

(c) \({\rm{P( - 1£\bar X - \bar Y£1) = 0}}{\rm{.0068 = 0}}{\rm{.68\% }}\)

(d) We're not convinced that \({{\rm{\mu }}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ - }}{{\rm{\mu }} _ {\rm{2}}}{\rm{ = 5}}\)

Step by step solution

01

Definition of standard deviation

The square root of the variance is the standard deviation of a random variable, sample, statistical population, data collection, or probability distribution. It is less resilient in practice than the average absolute deviation, but it is algebraically easier.

02

Determining the approximate distribution of \({\rm{\bar X ,\bar Y}}\)

Given:

\(\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {{\mu _X} = 105}\\ {{\sigma _X} = 8}\\ {{\mu _Y} = 100}\\ {{\sigma _Y} = 6}\\ {{n_X} = 40}\\ {{n_Y} = 35} \end{array}\)

The central limit theorem states that if the sample size is big (\({\rm{30}}\) or more), the sample mean \({\rm{\bar x}}\)sampling distribution is approximately normal.

The central limit theorem tells us that the sampling distribution of the sample mean \({\rm{\bar x}}\)is nearly normal because the sample size of \({\rm{40}}\)is at least \({\rm{30}}\)

The sample mean \({\rm{\bar x}}\)sampling distribution has a mean \({\rm{\mu }}\)and a standard deviation \(\frac{{\rm{\sigma }}}{{\sqrt {\rm{n}} }}\)

\(\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{{{\rm{\mu }}_{{\rm{\bar x}}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{\mu }}_{\rm{X}}}{\rm{ = 105}}}\\{{{\rm{\sigma }}_{{\rm{\bar x}}}}{\rm{ = }}\frac{{{{\rm{\sigma }}_{\rm{X}}}}}{{\sqrt {\rm{n}} }}{\rm{ = }}\frac{{\rm{8}}}{{\sqrt {{\rm{40}}} }}{\rm{ = }}\frac{{{\rm{2}}\sqrt {{\rm{10}}} }}{{\rm{5}}}{\rm{\gg 1}}{\rm{.2649}}}\end{array}\)

The central limit theorem states that if the sample size is big (\({\rm{30}}\) or more), the sample mean \({\rm{\bar y}}\)sampling distribution is essentially normal.

The central limit theorem tells us that the sampling distribution of the sample mean \({\rm{\bar y}}\)is nearly normal because the sample size of \({\rm{35}}\) is at least \({\rm{30}}\)

The sample mean \({\rm{\bar y}}\)sampling distribution has a mean \({\rm{\mu }}\)and a standard deviation \(\frac{{\rm{\sigma }}}{{\sqrt {\rm{n}} }}\)

\(\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{{{\rm{\mu }}_{{\rm{\bar y}}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{\mu }}_{\rm{Y}}}{\rm{ = 100}}}\\{{{\rm{\sigma }}_{{\rm{\bar y}}}}{\rm{ = }}\frac{{{{\rm{\sigma }}_{\rm{Y}}}}}{{\sqrt {\rm{n}} }}{\rm{ = }}\frac{{\rm{6}}}{{\sqrt {{\rm{35}}} }}{\rm{ = }}\frac{{{\rm{6}}\sqrt {{\rm{35}}} }}{{{\rm{35}}}}{\rm{\gg 1}}{\rm{.0142}}}\end{array}\)

03

 Determining the approximate distribution of \({\rm{\bar X - \bar Y}}\)

For the linear combination \({\rm{W = a}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ + b}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}\),the mean, variance, and standard deviation have the following properties:

\(\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{{{\rm{\mu }}_{\rm{W}}}{\rm{ = a}}{{\rm{\mu }}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ + b}}{{\rm{\mu }}_{\rm{2}}}}\\{{\rm{\sigma }}_{\rm{W}}^{\rm{2}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{a}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{\sigma }}_{\rm{1}}^{\rm{2}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{b}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{\sigma }}_{\rm{2}}^{\rm{2}}\left( {{\rm{\;If\;}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{ - }}}{\rm{1\;and\;}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{ - }}}{\rm{2\;are independent\;}}} \right)}\\{{{\rm{\sigma }}_{\rm{W}}}{\rm{ = }}\sqrt {{{\rm{a}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{\sigma }}_{\rm{1}}^{\rm{2}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{b}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{\sigma }}_{\rm{2}}^{\rm{2}}} \left( {{\rm{\;If\;}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{ - }}}{\rm{1\;and\;}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{ - }}}{\rm{2}}} \right.{\rm{\;are independent)\;}}}\end{array}\)

Suppose, \({\rm{\bar Xand \bar Y}}\) are independent

\({{\rm{\mu }}_{{\rm{\bar x - \bar y}}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{\mu }}_{{\rm{\bar x}}}}{\rm{ - }}{{\rm{\mu }}_{{\rm{\bar y}}}}{\rm{ = 105 - 100 = 5}}\)

\({{\rm{\sigma }}_{{\rm{\bar x - \bar y}}}}{\rm{ = }}\sqrt {{{\rm{\sigma }}_{{\rm{\bar x}}}}{\rm{ + ( - 1}}{{\rm{)}}^{\rm{2}}}{{\rm{\sigma }}_{{\rm{\bar y}}}}} {\rm{ = }}\sqrt {{\rm{1}}{\rm{.264}}{{\rm{9}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ + 1}}{\rm{.014}}{{\rm{2}}^{\rm{2}}}} {\rm{\gg 1}}{\rm{.6213}}\)

Because \({\rm{\bar Xand \bar Y}}\) are approximately normally distributed, \({\rm{\bar X - \bar Y}}\)is about normally distributed (and because we assume that they are independent).

04

Calculating (approximately) \(P( - 1£\bar X - \bar Y£1)\)

The standardized score is calculated by dividing the value \({\rm{x}}\)by the mean and then by the standard deviation.

\(\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{{\rm{z = }}\frac{{{\rm{x - \mu }}}}{{\rm{\sigma }}}{\rm{ = }}\frac{{{\rm{1 - 5}}}}{{{\rm{1}}{\rm{.6213}}}}{\rm{\gg - 2}}{\rm{.47}}}\\{{\rm{z = }}\frac{{{\rm{x - \mu }}}}{{\rm{\sigma }}}{\rm{ = }}\frac{{{\rm{ - 1 - 5}}}}{{{\rm{1}}{\rm{.6213}}}}{\rm{\gg - 3}}{\rm{.70}}}\end{array}\)

Using the normal probability table in the appendix, which gives the probabilities to the left of \({\rm{z}}\)scores, calculate the corresponding probability.

\(\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{{\rm{P( - 1£\bar X - \bar Y£1) = P( - 3}}{\rm{.70 < Z < - 2}}{\rm{.47) = P(Z < - 2}}{\rm{.47) - P(Z < - 3}}{\rm{.70)}}}\\{{\rm{\gg 0}}{\rm{.0068 - 0 = 0}}{\rm{.0068 = 0}}{\rm{.68\% }}}\end{array}\)

05

Calculating

The standardized score is the value \({\rm{x}}\)divided by the standard deviation after being reduced by the mean.

\({\rm{z = }}\frac{{{\rm{x - \mu }}}}{{\rm{\sigma }}}{\rm{ = }}\frac{{{\rm{10 - 5}}}}{{{\rm{1}}{\rm{.6213}}}}{\rm{\gg 3}}{\rm{.08}}\)

Using the normal probability table in the appendix, which gives the probabilities to the left of \({\rm{z}}\)-scores, calculate the relevant probability.

We would be skeptical of \({{\rm{\mu }}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ - }}{{\rm{\mu }}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ = 5}}\)because the probability is so small. if was obtained.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Annie and Alvie have agreed to meet between\({\rm{5:00 P}}{\rm{.M}}\). and\({\rm{6:00 P}}{\rm{.M}}\). for dinner at a local health-food restaurant. Let\({\rm{X = }}\)Annie's arrival time and\({\rm{Y = }}\)Alvie's arrival time. Suppose\({\rm{X}}\)and\({\rm{Y}}\)are independent with each uniformly distributed on the interval\({\rm{(5,6)}}\).

a. What is the joint pdf of\({\rm{X}}\)and\({\rm{Y}}\)?

b. What is the probability that they both arrive between\({\rm{5:15}}\)and\({\rm{5:45}}\)?

c. If the first one to arrive will wait only \({\rm{10\;min}}\) before leaving to eat elsewhere, what is the probability that they have dinner at the health-food restaurant? (Hint: The event of interest is\({\rm{A = \{(x,y):|x - y|£1/6\}}}\).)

A certain market has both an express checkout line and a superexpress checkout line. Let \({{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}\) denote the number of customers in line at the express checkout at a particular time of day, and let \({{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}\) denote the number of customers in line at the superexpress checkout at the same time. Suppose the joint pmf of \({{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}\)and\({{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}\) is as given in the accompanying table

a. What is \({\rm{P(}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ = 1}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}} = 1)\), that is, the probability that there is exactly one customer in each line?

b. What is \({\rm{P(}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}})\),that is, the probability that the numbers of customers in the two lines are identical? c. Let A denote the event that there are at least two more customers in one line than in the other line. Express A in terms of \({{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}\) and \({{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}\), and calculate the probability of this event.

d. What is the probability that the total number of customers in the two lines is exactly four? At least four?

Carry out a simulation experiment using a statistical computer package or other software to study the sampling distribution of \({\rm{\bar X}}\) when the population distribution is lognormal with \({\rm{E(ln(X)) = 3}}\) and\({\rm{V(ln(X)) = 1}}\). Consider the four sample sizes\({\rm{n = 10,20,30}}\), and\({\rm{50}}\), and in each case use \({\rm{1000}}\) replications. For which of these sample sizes does the \({\rm{\bar X}}\) sampling distribution appear to be approximately normal?

The lifetime of a certain type of battery is normally distributed with mean value \({\rm{10}}\)hours and standard deviation \({\rm{1}}\)hour. There are four batteries in a package. What lifetime value is such that the total lifetime of all batteries in a package exceeds that value for only \({\rm{5\% }}\)of all packages?

Answer the following questions:

a. Given that\({\rm{X = 1}}\), determine the conditional pmf of \({\rm{Y}}\)-i.e., \({{\rm{p}}_{{\rm{Y}}\mid {\rm{X}}}}{\rm{(0}}\mid {\rm{1),}}{{\rm{p}}_{{\rm{Y}}\mid {\rm{X}}}}{\rm{(1}}\mid {\rm{1)}}\), and\({{\rm{p}}_{{\rm{Y}}\mid {\rm{X}}}}{\rm{(2}}\mid {\rm{1)}}\).

b. Given that two houses are in use at the self-service island, what is the conditional pmf of the number of hoses in use on the full-service island?

c. Use the result of part (b) to calculate the conditional probability\({\rm{P(Y£

1}}\mid {\rm{X = 2)}}\).

d. Given that two houses are in use at the full-service island, what is the conditional pmf of the number in use at the self-service island?

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