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In Exercise \({\rm{66}}\), the weight of the beam itself contributes to the bending moment. Assume that the beam is of uniform thickness and density so that the resulting load is uniformly distributed on the beam. If the weight of the beam is random, the resulting load from the weight is also random; denote this load by \({\rm{W}}\) (kip-ft).

a. If the beam is\({\rm{12 }}\)ft long, \({\rm{W}}\)has mean \({\rm{1}}{\rm{.5}}\)and standard deviation \({\rm{.25}}\), and the fixed loads are as described in part (a) of Exercise \({\rm{66}}\), what are the expected value and variance of the bending moment? (Hint: If the load due to the beam were w kip-ft, the contribution to the bending moment would be \(W\grave{o} _0^{12}nxdx\)

b. If all three variables (\({{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}\),\({{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}\), and \({\rm{W}}\)) are normally distributed, what is the probability that the bending moment will be at most \({\rm{200}}\) kip-ft?

Short Answer

Expert verified

\({\rm{\;a}}{\rm{.\;E(B) = 158;V(B) = 430}}{\rm{.25;\;b}}{\rm{.\;P(B\pounds200) = 0}}{\rm{.9788}}{\rm{.\;}}\)

Step by step solution

01

Definition of standard deviation

The square root of the variance is the standard deviation of a random variable, sample, statistical population, data collection, or probability distribution. It is less resilient in practice than the average absolute deviation, but it is algebraically easier.

02

Determining the expected value and variance of the bending moment

Assign \({\rm{B}}\)to the random variable that describes the bending moment. The bending moment is denoted by the symbol

(\({\rm{B = }}{{\rm{a}}_{\rm{1}}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{a}}_{\rm{2}}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ + W\grave{o} }}_{\rm{0}}^{{\rm{12}}}{\rm{nxdx = }}{{\rm{a}}_{\rm{1}}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{a}}_{\rm{2}}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ + 72W}}\))

where the integral is calculated as

(\({\rm{\grave{o}}}_{\rm{0}}^{{\rm{12}}}{\rm{nxdx = }}\left. {\frac{{{{\rm{x}}^{\rm{2}}}}}{{\rm{2}}}} \right|_{\rm{0}}^{{\rm{12}}}{\rm{ = 72}}\))

The values \({{\rm{a}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{a}}_{\rm{2}}}\)are presented in the exercise's portion \({\rm{(a)}}\).Therefore,

\({\rm{B = 5}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ + 10}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ + 72W}}\)

The bending moment's predicted values are

\(\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{{\rm{E(B) = E}}\left( {{\rm{5}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ + 10}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ + 72W}}} \right){\rm{ = 5E}}\left( {{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}} \right){\rm{ + 10E}}\left( {{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}} \right){\rm{ + 72E(W)}}}\\{\mathop {\rm{ = }}\limits^{{\rm{(1)}}} {\rm{5 \times 2 + 10 \times 4 + 72 \times 1}}{\rm{.5 = 158}}}\end{array}{\rm{ }}\)

(1): the mean values are given in the exercise, as well as \({\rm{E(W) = 1}}{\rm{.5}}\)

The bending moment variance is

\(\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{{\rm{V(B) = V}}\left( {{\rm{5}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ + 10}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ + 72W}}} \right)\mathop {\rm{ = }}\limits^{{\rm{(2)}}} {{\rm{5}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{V}}\left( {{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}} \right){\rm{ + 1}}{{\rm{0}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{V}}\left( {{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}} \right){\rm{ + 7}}{{\rm{2}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{V(W)}}}\\{\mathop {\rm{ = }}\limits^{{\rm{(3)}}} {{\rm{5}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ \times 0}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{5}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ + 1}}{{\rm{0}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ \times }}{{\rm{1}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ + 7}}{{\rm{2}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ \times 0}}{\rm{.2}}{{\rm{5}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ = 430}}{\rm{.25}}}\end{array}\)

(2): the random variables are unrelated, (3): the standard deviations are provided in the exercise, \({\rm{ V(W) = 0}}{\rm{.2}}{{\rm{5}}^{\rm{2}}}\)

03

Determining the probability that the bending moment will be at most \({\rm{200}}\) kip-ft

Assume that the random variables you've been given are regularly distributed. The following statement is correct:

\(\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{{\rm{P(B£200)}}\mathop {\rm{ = }}\limits^{{\rm{(4)}}} {\rm{P}}\left( {\frac{{{\rm{B - E(B)}}}}{{{{\rm{\sigma }}_{\rm{B}}}}}{\rm{£ }}\frac{{{\rm{200 - 158}}}}{{{\rm{20}}{\rm{.74}}}}} \right)}\\{{\rm{ = P(Z£ 2}}{\rm{.03)}}\mathop {\rm{ = }}\limits^{{\rm{(5)}}} {\rm{0}}{\rm{.9788}}}\end{array}{\rm{v}}\)

(4): Because the three supplied variables are regularly distributed, \({\rm{B}}\) is normally distributed. To produce a standard normal distribution, standardise \({\rm{B}}\).\({\rm{Z}}\)

(5): from the appendix's normal probability table. Software can also be used to calculate the likelihood.

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