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A personnel director interviewing \({\rm{11}}\) senior engineers for four job openings has scheduled six interviews for the first day and five for the second day of interviewing. Assume that the candidates are interviewed in random order. a. What is the probability that x of the top four candidates are interviewed on the first day? b. How many of the top four candidates can be expected to be interviewed on the first day?

Short Answer

Expert verified

a. The probability is required as: .

b. On the first day two candidates are required.

Step by step solution

01

Define Discrete random variables

A discrete random variable is one that can only take on a finite number of different values.

02

Evaluating the probability

a) In total, there are

\({\rm{N = 11}}\)

senior engineers, as well as

\({\rm{n = 4}}\)

job vacancies Six of the eleven are questioned on the first day, and the remaining five are interviewed the next day.

Assume that the population has M successes (S) and N–M failures (F). If X is a random variable,

X=number of successes in a random sample size of n,

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{h(x;n,M,N) = P(X = x)}}\\{\rm{ = }}\frac{{\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{\rm{M}}\\{\rm{x}}\end{array}} \right)\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{{\rm{N - M}}}\\{{\rm{n - x}}}\end{array}} \right)}}{{\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{\rm{N}}\\{\rm{n}}\end{array}} \right)}}\end{array}\)

It has a probability mass function after that.

\({\rm{max\{ 0,n - N + M\} }} \le {\rm{x}} \le {\rm{min\{ n,M\} }}\)

The probability distribution is known as the hypergeometric distribution.

In our situation, a success is when x of the top contenders for the position are interviewed on the first day, and there are no other candidates.

\({\rm{M = 6}}\)

On the first day, applicants were interviewed. Also,

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{N - M = 11 - 6}}\\{\rm{ = 5}}\end{array}\)

It is then from that:

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{max\{ 0,4 - 11 + 6\} }} \le {\rm{x}} \le {\rm{min\{ n,M\} }}\\{\rm{max\{ 0, - 1\} }} \le {\rm{x}} \le {\rm{min\{ 4,6\} }}\\{\rm{0}} \le {\rm{x}} \le {\rm{4}}\end{array}\)

With pmf, we may deduce that the random variable X has a hypergeometric distribution.

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{h(x;4,6,11) = P(X = x)}}\\{\rm{ = }}\frac{{\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{\rm{6}}\\{\rm{x}}\end{array}} \right)\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{{\rm{11 - 6}}}\\{{\rm{4 - x}}}\end{array}} \right)}}{{\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{{\rm{11}}}\\{\rm{4}}\end{array}} \right)}}\end{array}\)

For all other values of x, use \({\rm{x}} \in {\rm{\{ 0,1,2,3,4\} }}\), and zero.

The probability we required were as follows:

Therefore, the probability is:

03

Step 3: Evaluating how many of the top four candidates can be expected to be interviewed on the first day?

b) All we have to do now is figure out what the anticipated value of random variable X is.

For random variable X with hypergeometric distribution and pmf h(x; n, M, N), the following is true.

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{E(X) = n \times }}\frac{{\rm{M}}}{{\rm{N}}}\\{\rm{V(X) = }}\left( {\frac{{{\rm{N - n}}}}{{{\rm{N - 1}}}}} \right){\rm{ \times n \times }}\frac{{\rm{M}}}{{\rm{N}}}{\rm{ \times (1 - }}\frac{{\rm{M}}}{{\rm{N}}}{\rm{)}}\end{array}\)

We have derived the following from the proposition:

\(\begin{aligned}E(X) &= n \times \frac{{\rm{M}}}{{\rm{N}}}\\ &= 4 \times \frac{{\rm{6}}}{{{\rm{11}}}}\\ &= 2{\rm{.18}}\end{aligned}\)

Or, to put it another way, we should expect two of the top four applicants to be interviewed on the first day.

Therefore, the required candidates are two.

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