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Determine which of the three gambles in Exercise 2 would be preferred by a person whose utility function has the form\({\bf{U}}\left( {\bf{x}} \right){\bf{ = ax + b}}\)where a and b are constants\(\left( {{\bf{a > 0}}} \right)\).

Short Answer

Expert verified

All three gambles are equally preferred.

Step by step solution

01

Given information

Referring to the exercise 2,

There are three gambles X, Y, and Z

Their probability distributions of the gains are,

\(\begin{align}\Pr \left( {X = 5} \right) = \Pr \left( {X = 25} \right) = {\raise0.7ex\hbox{$1$} \!\mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {1 2}}\right.\ } \!\lower0.7ex\hbox{$2$}},\\\Pr \left( {Y = 10} \right) = \Pr \left( {Y = 20} \right) = {\raise0.7ex\hbox{$1$} \!\mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {1 2}}\right.\ } \!\lower0.7ex\hbox{$2$}},\\\Pr \left( {Z = 15} \right) = 1.\end{align}\)

The utility function is given by,

\(U\left( x \right) = ax + b\)

02

Which gamble is preferable

For any gamble X,

\(E\left( {U\left( X \right)} \right) = aE\left( x \right) + b\)

Therefore, the one for which the expected gain is largest will be preferred among any set of gambles.

Then we have,

The expectation of gamble X is,

\(\begin{align}E\left( X \right) &= \left( {\frac{1}{2} \times 5} \right) + \left( {\frac{1}{2} \times 25} \right)\\ &= 2.5 + 12.5\\ &= 15\end{align}\)

So,

\(\begin{align}E\left( {U\left( X \right)} \right) &= aE\left( X \right) + b\\ &= \left( {a \times 15} \right) + b\\ &= 15a + b\end{align}\)

The expectation of gamble Y is,

\(\begin{align}E\left( Y \right) &= \left( {\frac{1}{2} \times 10} \right) + \left( {\frac{1}{2} \times 20} \right)\\ &= 5 + 10\\ &= 15\end{align}\)

\(\begin{align}E\left( {U\left( Y \right)} \right) &= aE\left( Y \right) + b\\ &= \left( {a \times 15} \right) + b\\ &= 15a + b\end{align}\)

The expectation of gamble Z is,

\(\begin{align}E\left( Z \right) &= \left( {1 \times 15} \right)\\ &= 15\end{align}\)

\(\begin{align}E\left( {U\left( Z \right)} \right) &= aE\left( Z \right) + b\\ &= \left( {a \times 15} \right) + b\\ &= 15a + b\end{align}\)

Hence, all three gambles are equally preferred.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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