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Backup System Problem: Vital systems such as electric power generating systems have "backup", components in case one component fails. Suppose that two generators each have a \(98 \%\) probability of working. The system will continue to operate as long as at least one of the generators is working. What is the probability that the system will continue to operate?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that the system will continue to operate is 99.96%.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Probability of Individual Failure

First, determine the probability that an individual generator fails. Since each generator has a 98% probability of working, the probability that a generator fails is 1 - 0.98, which equals 0.02 or 2%.
02

Calculate the Probability of Both Generators Failing

Next, calculate the probability that both generators fail simultaneously. Since the failures are independent events, you can multiply the probabilities of each generator failing together: 0.02 * 0.02 = 0.0004 or 0.04%.
03

Determine the Probability of the System Operating

The system fails only if both generators fail. So, the probability that the system will continue to operate is 1 minus the probability that both generators fail: 1 - 0.0004 = 0.9996 or 99.96%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Independent Events Probability
When assessing the probability of two separate events, such as the operation of individual generators in a backup system, it's crucial to determine if these events are independent. An event is independent if the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of another. In the context of our backup system example, the performance of one generator does not influence the performance of the second generator.

For independent events, calculating the combined probability of their outcomes involves multiplication. In the case of the generators, we're interested in the undesirable outcome where both fail. If each has a 2% chance of failure, we calculate the joint probability of failure by multiplying these individual probabilities: \(0.02 \times 0.02\). This calculation yields a 0.04% chance that both generators fail simultaneously. By understanding that these are independent events, you confidently perform this calculation knowing the failure of one does not change the likelihood of the other failing.
System Reliability with Backup Components
System reliability is a measure of how consistently a system performs its intended function without failure. When dealing with critical systems like power generation, it's common to use backup components to improve reliability. Reliability engenders trust in a system's dependability, especially when failure can result in significant consequences. In our textbook exercise, the presence of two generators, each with its independent probability of working, enhances the system's reliability.

The reliability of such a system depends on whether at least one component is operational. As the exercise shows, even if one generator fails, the system will still function if the other is working. This overlapping functionality is a primary strategy in designing systems for high reliability. Calculating the overall system reliability, as we did by finding the complement of the probability that both generators fail, gives us a high confidence level of 99.96% that the system will remain operational.
Probability Calculations in Precalculus
Dealing with probability in precalculus often involves creating models for various scenarios and then performing calculations to predict outcomes. Probability calculations can involve addition, multiplication, or more complex statistical methods, depending on the scenario being analyzed. In the generator problem, we used the fundamental principle that the probability of independent events happening together is the product of their individual probabilities.

Furthermore, to calculate the overall system probability of operating, we subtracted the joint probability of failure from 100%. This approach, of finding the complement of an event, is particularly useful when wanting to find the likelihood of an event not occurring, which can sometimes be more straightforward than determining the probability of multiple success events directly. Thus, with a solid grasp of probability calculations, precalculus students can analyze and understand a wide range of real-world scenarios, ensuring accurate and relevant conclusions.

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