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Archery Problem 3: An expert archer has the probabilities of hitting various rings shown on the target (Figure \(9-8 a\) ). $$\begin{array}{lcc}\text { Color } & \text { Probability } & \text { Points } \\\\\hline \text { Gold } & 0.20 & 9 \\\\\text { Red } & 0.36 & 7 \\\\\text { Blue } & 0.23 & 5 \\\\\text { Black } & 0.14 & 3 \\\\\text { White } & 0.07 & 1\end{array}$$ a. What is her mathematically expected number of points on any one shot? b. If she shoots 48 arrows, what would her expected score be?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The expected number of points for one shot is 5.53. The expected score for 48 shots is 265.44.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Expected Value

The expected value (EV) in probability is the average outcome one would expect after many trials of a random experiment. It is calculated by multiplying each possible outcome by its probability and summing all of these products.
02

Calculating the Expected Value for One Shot

To calculate the expected value for one shot, multiply the points of each ring by its respective probability, then sum these products: \[ EV = (P_{Gold} \times Points_{Gold}) + (P_{Red} \times Points_{Red}) + (P_{Blue} \times Points_{Blue}) + (P_{Black} \times Points_{Black}) + (P_{White} \times Points_{White}) \].
03

Solve for Expected Value for One Shot

Substitute the given probabilities and points into the expected value formula: \[ EV = (0.20 \times 9) + (0.36 \times 7) + (0.23 \times 5) + (0.14 \times 3) + (0.07 \times 1) \]. Perform the multiplication for each term and then add the results together to find the expected value for a single shot.
04

Calculating the Expected Total Score for 48 Shots

To find the expected total score for 48 shots, multiply the expected value for one shot by the number of shots: \[ Expected\ Score\ for\ 48\ Shots = EV_{One\ Shot} \times 48 \].
05

Solve for Expected Total Score for 48 Shots

Once the expected value for one shot is calculated, multiply that number by 48 to get the expected total score for 48 shots.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Theory
In the world of mathematics and statistics, probability theory forms the backbone of our understanding of random events. It’s a field that deals with the likeliness of an occurrence and provides a quantifiable measure to the concept of 'chance'. The fascinating aspect of probability is that it allows us to predict the behavior of a system over a long period or many repetitions, even when the outcomes are not certain on an individual basis.

When applying probability theory to a problem, such as the archery example, we first identify the possible outcomes and then assign probabilities to these outcomes. The sum of all probabilities in a well-defined probability model should be one, since one of the possible outcomes must occur. Understanding this foundational principle is crucial for delving deeper into more complex topics like expected value, which directly builds upon the basics of probability theory.
Mathematical Expectation
Mathematical expectation, commonly known as expected value (EV), is a core concept in the field of statistics and probability. It represents the average result one would expect from a random event if it were to be repeated many times. Expected value is essentially a form of long-term average, taking into account all possible outcomes and their probabilities.

The calculation of expected value is straightforward but requires attention to detail. For each possible outcome of an event, you multiply its value (such as points scored in an archery target) by the probability of that outcome occurring. The summation of these products gives us the EV. It's important to note that while EV provides a 'central' or 'mean' value, an individual trial can yield a result that is different from the EV. However, over many trials, the average should converge to the expected value. In the context of our archery problem, by calculating the EV, we can determine what the archer's average score would be per shot over a prolonged series of shots.
Precalculus
Precalculus serves as the groundwork for more advanced mathematical concepts, laying the foundation for calculus. While precalculus itself is not directly tied to probability or expectation, it equips students with crucial tools for understanding and manipulating algebraic expressions, functions, and graphing, which are essential in grasping higher-level topics.

In solving the archery problem, precalculus abilities help in dealing with the algebra involved in expected value calculations. Students use precalculus skills to multiply probabilities and outcomes, to sum these products, and to understand the graphical representation of data. Mastering precalculus not only aids in comprehending probability theory and expected value but also prepares students for the eventual study of statistical distributions and continuous random variables in calculus or statistics.

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