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Measles and Chicken Pox Problem: Suppose that in any one year a child has a 0.12 probability of catching measles and a 0.2 probability of catching chicken pox. a. If these events are independent of each other, what is the probability that a child will get both diseases in a given year? b. Suppose statistics show that the probability for getting measles and then chicken pox in the same year is 0.006 i. Calculate the probability of getting both diseases. ii. What is the probability of getting chicken pox and then measles in the same year? c. Based on the given probabilities and your answers to part b, what could you conclude about the effects of the two diseases on each other?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. 0.12 * 0.2 = 0.024. b i. 0.006 (given). b ii. 0.006 (same as getting measles then chicken pox as the events are independent). c. The diseases are likely not independent as the combined probability is less than what would be expected if they were independent.

Step by step solution

01

Part a: Calculate the probability of getting both diseases if the events are independent

Since the events are stated to be independent, you can find the probability of both occurring by multiplying the individual probabilities of each event. The probability of catching measles is 0.12 and the probability of catching chicken pox is 0.2. Multiply these probabilities together to get the combined probability.
02

Part b i: State the given probability for the conjunction of both diseases

Statistics show that the probability of catching measles and then chicken pox in the same year is 0.006. This information is given directly and does not require additional calculations.
03

Part b ii: Calculate the probability of getting chicken pox and then measles in the same year

Since the question assumes the events to be independent, the order in which the diseases are caught does not matter. The probability of getting chicken pox then measles is the same as getting measles and then chicken pox, which is given as 0.006.
04

Part c: Conclude about the effects of the two diseases on each other

If the independence assumption were correct, the probability of catching both diseases would be 0.12 * 0.2 = 0.024 as calculated in part a. However, the given probability in part b is 0.006, which is less than 0.024, suggesting that the diseases are not independent and that having one disease may actually decrease the likelihood of contracting the other.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Independent Events in Probability
When we talk about independent events in probability, we refer to situations where the occurrence of one event does not influence the likelihood of another. In our case, the events are a child contracting measles and a child contracting chickenpox in a single year. When events are independent, calculating the combined probability is straightforward: you simply multiply the individual probabilities of each event.
For instance, if a child has a 0.12 chance of catching measles and a 0.2 chance of catching chickenpox, and these are independent events, the probability of a child getting both diseases is the product of the two probabilities, which is 0.12 times 0.2. In mathematical terms, if Event A and Event B are independent, then the probability of both A and B occurring is given by
\[ P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B). \]
Probability Calculations
When it comes to probability calculations, the process generally involves understanding the type of probability model that applies to the situation at hand—independent, dependent, conditional, or combinatorial. In the measles and chickenpox example, we start by assuming the events are independent as per the exercise prompt and perform a simple multiplication as explained earlier.
Once we have the probabilities for each individual event, we can analyze further, just as we did in the second and third steps of the solution, where we considered given statistical probabilities. Calculating the probability of both diseases requires us to take into account this given data. The calculations reaffirmed our earlier product rule for independent events when we found that the probability of getting chickenpox and then measles is the same as getting measles and then chickenpox, pointing to the independence of the two events.
Probability and Statistics
The intersection of probability and statistics becomes evident when analyzing real-world data to determine the independence or dependence of events. Statistics often provide insights into probability models by showing how often events occur both individually and conjointly. In our exercise, we are presented with statistics showing that the probability of a child getting both measles and then chickenpox is 0.006. This empirical value contrasts with the value calculated under the independent events assumption, guiding us to revisit our initial hypothesis about whether these events are truly independent or whether there's an underlying factor influencing the probability.
Combinatorial Probability
Combinatorial probability deals with the likelihood of the occurrence of certain combinations of events, particularly when the events are dependent on each other. While our primary example doesn't delve deeply into combinatory aspects, understanding the concept is crucial when dealing with more complex problems where the order of outcomes or specific groupings becomes significant.
In combinatorial probability, we often use tools such as permutations and combinations to calculate the probability of various scenarios. This is particularly useful in games of chance, in which players might be interested in the likelihood of drawing a specific hand of cards from a deck or rolling a certain combination of numbers on a set of dice. However, in the measles and chickenpox problem, we're looking at a simpler situation, assuming the diseases to be independent and not exploring the combinatory aspects in our calculations.

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