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Hide-and-Seek Problem: The Katz brothers, Bob and Tom, are hiding in the cellar. If either one sneezes, he will reveal their hiding place. Bob's probability of sneezing is \(0.6,\) and Tom's probability is \(0.7 .\) What is the probability that at least one brother will sneeze?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that at least one brother will sneeze is 0.88.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the complement of the desired probability

The easiest way to approach this problem is to find the probability that neither brother sneezes and then subtract that probability from 1. The complement of at least one brother sneezing is that no brother sneezes at all.
02

Calculate the probability of neither brother sneezing

Since Bob's probability of sneezing is 0.6, his probability of not sneezing is 1 - 0.6 = 0.4. Similarly, Tom's probability of not sneezing is 1 - 0.7 = 0.3. Assuming their sneezes are independent events, the probability that neither sneezes is the product of their individual probabilities of not sneezing, which is 0.4 * 0.3.
03

Calculate the probability of at least one sneeze

Having found the probability that neither brother sneezes, we subtract it from 1 to get the probability of at least one sneeze. This is 1 - (0.4 * 0.3).
04

Perform the final calculation

The final calculation is simple arithmetic: 1 - (0.4 * 0.3) = 1 - 0.12 = 0.88.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Complement of a Probability
Understanding the complement of a probability is essential in the study of probability theory. The complement of an event is simply the event that the original event does not occur. In mathematical terms, if the probability of an event happening is represented as P(event), the complement is represented as P(not event) and is calculated as 1 - P(event).

This concept is particularly useful when the event we are interested in is more complex, but its complement is simpler to calculate. As in our hide-and-seek example, rather than calculating the probability that at least one brother sneezes (a potentially complicated event to visualize), we calculate the probability that neither sneezes (a much simpler event) and then subtract that from the total probability space, which is 1. This switch in perspective often simplifies the computation and understanding of probability problems.
Independent Events
In probability, independent events are those whose occurrence or non-occurrence does not affect the likelihood of another event happening. For example, if Tom and Bob's sneezes in the hide-and-seek problem are independent, then Tom's sneezing (or not sneezing) has no effect on the probability of Bob sneezing, and vice versa. The probability of two independent events both occurring is found by multiplying the probabilities of each event. This principle is crucial for performing accurate probability calculations when multiple events are involved, as it was applied in our hide-and-seek problem to find the probability of neither brother sneezing.
Probability Calculations
Performing probability calculations often involves applying a series of steps to determine the likelihood of one or more events. Key steps include defining the events clearly, determining if events are independent, and using the appropriate formulas and concepts, such as the complement rule or multiplying probabilities for independent events.

As in our exercise example, determining the probability of at least one event occurring can be sometimes indirect, such as first finding the probability that none of the events occur and then subtracting this figure from 1. It’s also critical to keep in mind that all probabilities must range between 0 and 1, where 0 represents an impossible event and 1 signifies a certain event.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

World Series Project: Suppose the Dodgers and the Yankees are in the World Series of baseball. A team must win four games to win the World Series. From their season records, you predict that the Dodgers have a probability of 0.6 of beating the Yankees in any one game. Assume this probability is independent of which team has won a preceding game in this World Series.(IMAGE CAN'T COPY) (A). Find the probability that the Dodgers win the series by winning the first four games. (B). Find the probability that the Yankees win the series by winning all of the first four games. (C). For a team to win the series in exactly five games, they must win exactly three of the first four games, then win the fitth game. Find the probability that the Dodgers win the series in five games. (D). Find the probability that the Yankees win the series in five games. (E). Find the probability of each of these events: i. The Dodgers win the series in six games. ii. The Yankees win the series in six games. iii. The Dodgers win the series in seven games. iv. The Yankees win the series in seven games. (F). Find the probability that the Yankees win the series. (G). What is the most probable length of the series- -four, five, six, or seven games?

Baseball Team Problem 3: Nine people try out for the nine positions on a baseball team. If the players are selected at random for the positions, find the probability of each event. a. Fred, Mike, or Jason is the pitcher. b. Fred, Mike, or Jason is the pitcher, and Sam or Paul plays first base. c. Fred, Mike, or Jason is the pitcher, Sam or Paul plays first base, and Bob is the catcher.

A six-letter permutation is selected at random from the letters in the word NIMBLE. Find the probability of each event. a. The third letter is \(I\) and the last letter is \(B\) b. The second letter is a vowel and the third letter is a consonant. c. The second and third letters are both vowels. d. The second letter is a consonant and the last letter is \(E\) e. The second letter is a consonant and the last letter is \(L\)

Calculator Components Problem: The "heart", of a calculator is one or more chips on which thousands of components are etched. Chips are mass produced and have a fairly high probability of being defective. Suppose that a particular brand of calculator uses two kinds of chip. Chip \(A\) has a probability of \(70 \%\) of being defective, and chip \(B\) has a probability of \(80 \%\) of being defective. If one chip of each kind is randomly selected, find the probability that a. Both chips are defective b. \(A\) is not defective c. \(B\) is not defective d. Neither chip is defective e. At least one chip is defective

Expectation of a Binomial Experiment: Suppose you conduct a random experiment that has a binomial probability distribution. Suppose the probability that outcome C occurs on any one repetition is \(0.4 .\) Let \(P(x)\) be the probability that outcome C occurs \(x\) times in five repetitions. a. Calculate \(P(x)\) for each value of \(x\) in the domain. b. Find the mathematically expected value of \(x\) (Hint: The value if \(C\) occurs \(x\) times is \(x .\) ) c. Show that the mathematically expected value of \(x\) is equal to 0.4 (the probability \(C\) occurs on one repetition) times 5 (the total number of repetitions). d. If the probability that \(C\) occurs on any one repetition is \(b\) and the probability that \(C\) does not occur on one repetition is \(a=1-b,\) prove that in five trials, the expected value of \(x\) is \(5 b\) e. From what you have observed in this problem, make a conjecture about the mathematically expected value of \(x\) in \(n\) repetitions, if the probability that C occurs on any one repetition is \(b\) f. If you plant 100 seeds, each of which has a probability of 0.71 of germinating, how many seeds would you expect to germinate?

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