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A poll conducted in 2013 found that \(52 \%\) of U.S. adult Twitter users get at least some news on Twitter. \(^{12}\). The standard error for this estimate was \(2.4 \%\), and a normal distribution may be used to model the sample proportion. Construct a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for the fraction of U.S. adult Twitter users who get some news on Twitter, and interpret the confidence interval in context.

Short Answer

Expert verified
(0.4582, 0.5818), with 99% confidence.

Step by step solution

01

Identify Key Information

First, we need to recognize that the sample proportion, or the observed proportion of Twitter users getting news, is 0.52, and the standard error (SE) is 0.024.
02

Find Z-Score for 99% Confidence Interval

For a 99% confidence interval, we look for the Z-score that corresponds to the middle 99% of the standard normal distribution. This value is approximately 2.576.
03

Calculate Margin of Error

To calculate the margin of error (ME), multiply the standard error by the Z-score: \[ ME = Z \times SE = 2.576 \times 0.024 = 0.0618 \]
04

Construct Confidence Interval

The confidence interval is calculated by adding and subtracting the margin of error from the sample proportion:\[ 0.52 - 0.0618 = 0.4582 \]\[ 0.52 + 0.0618 = 0.5818 \]Thus, the 99% confidence interval is (0.4582, 0.5818).
05

Interpret Confidence Interval

This means we are 99% confident that the true proportion of U.S. adult Twitter users who get at least some news from Twitter is between 45.82% and 58.18%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
When you hear the term "sample proportion," think about it as a piece of a pie. Imagine you have a whole pie—the entire population—and you're interested in only a slice, or sample. The sample proportion (\(\hat{p}\)) is simply the fraction of individuals in your sample that have a particular characteristic
or opinion. In the exercise, our sample is U.S adult Twitter users, and the proportion who get news from Twitter is 0.52 or 52%.

Sample proportions are essential in statistics because they give us a snapshot of a larger population's characteristics. When we can't measure an entire population, which is often the case, sample proportions allow us to make educated guesses. By studying a sample, we save time and resources.

Remember, though, that since we rely on a sample, there will always be some level of uncertainty in our estimates. Understanding this helps us contextualize why margins of error and confidence intervals matter.
Z-Score
The Z-score might sound technical, but it's actually quite straightforward. It tells us how far away a particular sample mean is from the population mean, in units of standard deviation.
The Z-score is crucial when determining confidence intervals as it indicates how much confidence we can have in our measurements.

In our exercise, we're trying to find the Z-score for a 99% confidence interval. This Z-score is found by looking it up in the standard normal distribution table and it comes out to be approximately 2.576. This means that 99% of the distribution falls within roughly 2.576 standard deviations on either side of the mean.

The higher the Z-score, the more certain we are about the results, assuming a normal distribution. In other words, in a 99% confidence interval, you can be quite assured that the true proportion falls within your calculated range, based on the Z-score used.
Margin of Error
If all this talk about margins sounds familiar, that's because the margin of error is a buffer zone in your data analysis.
It's an indication of how much we expect the sample proportion to vary from the true population proportion due to random chance.

Let's break it down using our exercise. We calculated the margin of error (\( ME \)) using the formula: \( ME = Z \times SE \)
Where \( Z \) is the Z-score and \( SE \) is the standard error.

This results in:\[ ME = 2.576 \times 0.024 = 0.0618 \]
The margin of error helps us construct the confidence interval, letting us know the range in which the true population parameter is likely to lie.

Understanding the margin of error is key as it reflects the level of precision and reliability in the estimate of the population parameter.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) is somewhat like the uncertainty or variability that comes with measuring a sample instead of the whole population.
It reflects the expected variation in the sample proportion from the true population proportion.
The formula for standard error is:\[ SE = \frac{\sqrt{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}}{\sqrt{n}} \]
where \(\hat{p}\) is the sample proportion, and \(n\) is the sample size.

In the given exercise, the standard error was already provided as 0.024. It's one of the components needed to calculate the margin of error and eventually the confidence interval.

Standard error is the bellwether for gauging how much dispersion you'll see around a sample mean in repeated samples. A smaller SE suggests that your sample mean is close to the population mean, implying more precision and reliability in your statistical inferences.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

For each of the following situations, state whether the parameter of interest is a mean or a proportion. It may be helpful to examine whether individual responses are numerical or categorical. (a) In a survey, one hundred college students are asked how many hours per week they spend on the Internet. (b) In a survey, one hundred college students are asked: "What percentage of the time you spend on the Internet is part of your course work?" (c) In a survey, one hundred college students are asked whether or not they cited information from Wikipedia in their papers. (d) In a survey, one hundred college students are asked what percentage of their total weekly spending is on alcoholic beverages. (e) In a sample of one hundred recent college graduates, it is found that 85 percent expect to get a job within one year of their graduation date.

Write the null and alternative hypotheses in words and then symbols for each of the following situations. (a) A tutoring company would like to understand if most students tend to improve their grades (or not) after they use their services. They sample 200 of the students who used their service in the past year and ask them if their grades have improved or declined from the previous year. (b) Employers at a firm are worried about the effect of March Madness, a basketball championship held each spring in the US, on employee productivity. They estimate that on a regular business day employees spend on average 15 minutes of company time checking personal email, making personal phone calls, etc. They also collect data on how much company time employees spend on such non-business activities during March Madness. They want to determine if these data provide convincing evidence that employee productivity changed during March Madness.

In a random sample 765 adults in the United States, 322 say they could not cover a $$\$ 400$$ unexpected expense without borrowing money or going into debt. (a) What population is under consideration in the data set? (b) What parameter is being estimated? (c) What is the point estimate for the parameter? (d) What is the name of the statistic can we use to measure the uncertainty of the point estimate? (e) Compute the value from part (d) for this context. (f) A cable news pundit thinks the value is actually \(50 \%\). Should she be surprised by the data? (g) Suppose the true population value was found to be \(40 \%\). If we use this proportion to recompute the value in part (e) using \(p=0.4\) instead of \(\hat{p},\) does the resulting value change much?

As part of a quality control process for computer chips, an engineer at a factory randomly samples 212 chips during a week of production to test the current rate of chips with severe defects. She finds that 27 of the chips are defective. (a) What population is under consideration in the data set? (b) What parameter is being estimated? (c) What is the point estimate for the parameter? (d) What is the name of the statistic can we use to measure the uncertainty of the point estimate? (e) Compute the value from part (d) for this context. (f) The historical rate of defects is \(10 \%\). Should the engineer be surprised by the observed rate of defects during the current week? (g) Suppose the true population value was found to be \(10 \%\). If we use this proportion to recompute the value in part (e) using \(p=0.1\) instead of \(\hat{p},\) does the resulting value change much?

A website is trying to increase registration for first-time visitors, exposing \(1 \%\) of these visitors to a new site design. Of 752 randomly sampled visitors over a month who saw the new design, 64 registered. (a) Check any conditions required for constructing a confidence interval. (b) Compute the standard error. (c) Construct and interpret a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the fraction of first-time visitors of the site who would register under the new design (assuming stable behaviors by new visitors over time).

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