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91Ó°ÊÓ

An academic department has just completed voting by secret ballot for a department head. The ballot box contains four slips with votes for candidate \(A\) and three slips with votes for candidate \(B\). Suppose these slips are removed from the box one by one. a. List all possible outcomes. b. Suppose a running tally is kept as slips are removed. For what outcomes does \(A\) remain ahead of \(B\) throughout the tally?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Favorable outcomes where A leads throughout include sequences like AAAABBB and AAABABB.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We have a total of 7 slips where 4 votes are for candidate \( A \) and 3 for candidate \( B \). We need to find all possible sequences in which slips can be drawn and identify sequences where \( A \) always has more votes than \( B \) when counting from the start.
02

List All Possible Outcomes

Each sequence of slips can be viewed as a permutation of the letters A (4 times) and B (3 times). Thus, we can list all possible sequences of 7 letters where A appears 4 times and B appears 3 times. One approach to finding all permutations is using the formula for permutations with repetition: \( \frac{7!}{4!3!} \). Thus, there are \( 35 \) possible sequences.
03

Generate Sequences

Generate all sequences by selecting positions in the 7-slot sequence for the 4 \( A \)s and automatically placing 3 \( B \)s in the remaining slots. Some sequences include: AAAABBB, AAABABB, AAABBAB, etc.
04

Identify Favorable Outcomes for A

For candidate \( A \) to remain ahead throughout, examine the running tally as each slip is revealed. For \( A \) to always be ahead, at every prefix of the sequence, the number of A's must at least equal the number of B's.
05

Analyze and List Favorable Outcomes

Go through the sequences and keep only those that satisfy the condition from Step 4. Possible favorable outcomes include: AAAABBB, AAABABB, AAABBAA. Ensure each step (addition of \( A \) or \( B \)) maintains a tally where A's count is greater than B's.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Combinatorics in Voting Scenarios
Combinatorics is the branch of mathematics that deals with counting, arrangement, and combination of objects. It's crucial for solving problems involving permutations and combinations, such as the voting scenario described in the exercise. Here, we're confronted with slips of paper, representing votes, that are arranged in sequences. Permutations with repetition apply because certain objects (slips) repeat.

In our example, there are two types of objects: slips for candidate A and slips for candidate B. A permutation with repetitions seeks to find how many different ways we can arrange these slips, considering that each vote type repeats a specific number of times. The formula for calculating permutations with repetition is given by:
\[ \frac{n!}{n_1! \times n_2! \times \ldots \times n_k!} \]
- Here, \( n \) is the total number of objects (slips).- \( n_1, n_2, \ldots, n_k \) are the counts of each type of repeated object.

For our voting problem: - Total slips = 7- Slips for A = 4- Slips for B = 3

The number of unique sequences where some slots are occupied by A and others by B is calculated as \( \frac{7!}{4!3!} = 35 \). These sequences show all the possible ways in which the slips can be drawn from the box.
Probability and Keeping Candidate A in the Lead
In probability, we seek to find the likelihood of particular outcomes within a described set of possibilities. Within the context of our voting problem, we not only care about the sequence of slip removals but are particularly interested in arrangements where candidate A remains in the lead throughout the sequence.

This boils down to calculating the relative frequencies of favorable outcomes against all possible permutations. Specifically, for an outcome to be favorable, every initial segment of the sequence must exhibit a greater or equal count of 'A' slips compared to 'B' slips. This means calculating the probability
- Identify sequences where \( A > B \) at every prefix position.- From the 35 permutations, we examine which satisfy the criteria (e.g., AAAABBB maintains A's lead).

The analysis shows a restricted count of favorable sequences, a subset of the entire sample space. The ratio of favorable outcomes over all possible permutations gives the probability of A always remaining ahead.
Utilizing Counting Principles to Generate and Validate Outcomes
Counting principles provide tools to systematically identify sets of outcomes that match specific criteria. By leveraging methods like permutations with repetition, we can determine all possible orderings of a set of items. Applying counting principles helps not only to create a complete list of sequences but also to focus only on those that are relevant to the problem's context.

To generate sequences in which A remains ahead, you start by manually sifting through combinations:
  • Assign positions to four A's within a sequence of seven slots.
  • Fill the remaining slots with B's.
The key constraint is maintaining a higher count for A's at every step, which necessitates careful consideration during analysis. When reviewing sequences like "AAABABB", ensure each step maintains the condition \( A \geq B \).

Counting principles reveal practical strategies in problem-solving. They enable a structured approach to systematically identify suitable sequences hand-in-hand with probability analysis.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Consider a woman whose brother is afflicted with hemophilia, which implies that the woman's mother has the hemophilia gene on one of her two X chromosomes (almost surely not both, since that is generally fatal). Thus there is a \(50-50\) chance that the woman's mother has passed on the bad gene to her. The woman has two sons, each of whom will independently inherit the gene from one of her two chromosomes. If the woman herself has a bad gene, there is a \(50-50\) chance she will pass this on to a son. Suppose that neither of her two sons is afflicted with hemophilia. What then is the probability that the woman is indeed the carrier of the hemophilia gene? What is this probability if she has a third son who is also not afflicted?

A particular state has elected both a govemor and a senator. Let \(A\) be the event that a randomly selected voter has a favorable view of a certain party's senatorial candidate, and let \(B\) be the corresponding event for that party's gubernatorial candidate. Suppose that \(P\left(A^{\prime}\right)=.44, P\left(B^{\prime}\right)=\) \(.57\), and \(P(A \cup B)=.68\) (these figures are suggested by the 2010 general election in California). a. What is the probability that a randomly selected voter has a favorable view of both candidates? b. What is the probability that a randomly selected voter has a favorable view of exactly one of these candidates? c. What is the probability that a randomly selected voter has an unfavorable view of at least one of these candidates.

A box contains four \(40-W\) bulbs, five \(60-W\) bulbs, and six \(75-\mathrm{W}\) bulbs. If bulbs are selected one by one in random order, what is the probability that at least two bulbs must be selected to obtain one that is rated 75 W?

A production facility employs 20 workers on the day shift, 15 workers on the swing shift, and 10 workers on the graveyard shift. A quality control consultant is to select 6 of these workers for indepth interviews. Suppose the selection is made in such a way that any particular group of 6 workers has the same chance of being selected as does any other group (drawing 6 slips without replacement from among 45). a. How many selections result in all 6 workers coming from the day shift? What is the probability that all 6 selected workers will be from the day shift? b. What is the probability that all 6 selected workers will be from the same shift? c. What is the probability that at least two different shifts will be represented among the selected workers? d. What is the probability that at least one of the shifts will be unrepresented in the sample of workers?

Allan and Beth currently have \(\$ 2\) and \(\$ 3\), respectively. A fair coin is tossed. If the result of the toss is \(\mathrm{H}\), Allan wins \(\$ 1\) from Beth, whereas if the coin toss results in \(\mathrm{T}\), then Beth wins \(\$ 1\) from Allan. This process is then repeated, with a coin toss followed by the exchange of \(\$ 1\), until one of the two players goes broke (one of the two gamblers is ruined). We wish to determine \(a_{2}=P\) (Allan is the winner \(\mid\) he starts with \(\$ 2\) ) To do so, let's also consider \(a_{i}=P\) (Allan wins | he starts with \(\$ i\) ) for \(i=0,1,3,4\), and 5 . a. What are the values of \(a_{0}\) and \(a_{5}\) ? b. Use the law of total probability to obtain an equation relating \(a_{2}\) to \(a_{1}\) and \(a_{3}\). [Hint: Condition on the result of the first coin toss, realizing that if it is a \(\mathrm{H}\), then from that point Allan starts with \$3.] c. Using the logic described in (b), develop a system of equations relating \(a_{i}(i=1,2,3,4)\) to \(a_{i-1}\) and \(a_{i+1}\). Then solve these equations. [Hint: Write each equation so that \(a_{i}-a_{i-1}\) is on the left hand side. Then use the result of the first equation to express each other \(a_{i}-a_{i-1}\) as a function of \(a_{1}\), and add together all four of these expressions \((i=2,3,4,5)\).] d. Generalize the result to the situation in which Allan's initial fortune is \(\$ a\) and Beth's is \(\$ b\). Note: The solution is a bit more complicated if \(p=P(\) Allan wins \(\$ 1) \neq .5 .\)

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